Week 9 Best Bets: Carolina Panthers & More NFL Picks

It was another week of just simply treading water. We ultimately finished 2-3, though losing with the Ravens felt unfair. Most of that handicap was based on Lamar Jackson’s track record as an underdog, yet we lost him after a single dropback. It’s not surprising that they were routed without him.

Elsewhere, we did secure wins with the Lions and Commanders, while the other two losses were with the Jets and Browns. While Cleveland was admittedly a bad pick, the Jets once again found a way to lose a game that they should have won. They outgained the Raiders by more than 100 yards, but at this point, this is simply who the team is. As long as Aaron Glenn remains the head coach, they’re going to be a squad that underperforms their talent level.

Our record for the year moves to just 20-19-1. While we’re still above .500, there is plenty of room for improvement.

The focus now shifts to NFL Week 9. We have a larger slate than usual, with just two teams on bye (Steelers & Titans). We do have an overseas game, with the Bengals facing the Falcons in Spain, but it still leaves a healthy main slate to choose from.

Let’s dive into five of my best bets for NFL Week 9.

NFL Best Bets For Week 9

Carolina Panthers (+3.0) vs. Denver Broncos

• Best Odds: -120; FanDuel
• Play To: +3.0 (-125) or +2.5 (-110)

The Broncos continue to win games that they have absolutely no business winning. We saw them snatch victory from the jaws of defeat once again in Week 8, erasing an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to get past the Chiefs. They’ve now won 15 consecutive one-score games, and they’re somehow 3-3 since the start of 2025 when trailing by 11+ in the fourth quarter. That’s a massive anomaly compared to the rest of the league:

It makes the Broncos a prime fade candidate moving forward. They have the third-worst yardage differential in the entire league, and they have an expected record of just 4.2-3.8 based on points for and against.

Now, the Broncos will have to play without most of their secondary. They did get Patrick Surtain back last week, and that’s a huge upgrade. He remains one of the best cornerbacks in football. However, he can’t cover everybody. The Broncos had three other members of their secondary listed as DNPs on Wednesday, including Talanoa Hufanga. Carolina has an excellent top receiver duo in Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, so you don’t want to be shorthanded at the back against them.

Add it all up, and the Panthers are an excellent target as home underdogs. Most of the +3.0s are gone across the industry, but I don’t mind playing them at +2.5 or on the moneyline, either.

Buffalo Bills (-3.0) at Minnesota Vikings

• Best Odds: -120; FanDuel
• Play To: -3.0 (-120) or -3.5 (-105)

Let’s go from one fade team to another. The Vikings’ skeptics were rewarded with a cover from the Lions last week, and I see no reason why the Bills can’t do the same thing.

Buffalo’s offense has been an absolute wagon this season. They’re first in the league in EPA, and no one has managed to slow down Josh Allen. He’s absolutely killing teams with his arm and his legs, racking up 20 scores through his first seven games.

Buffalo’s defense is their only real question mark, and that shouldn’t be a huge issue vs. the Vikings. As good as Minnesota’s defense has been this season, their offense has been equally as bad. They’re 30th in EPA per play, better only than the Chargers and Eagles. They're a bottom-10 unit on the ground and through the air, so it’s hard to get excited about anything they do on that side of the ball.

The Bills are a potentially exploitable matchup for Minnesota, but we’ve already seen them struggle in similar spots. They managed 16 points or fewer and less than 300 yards in back-to-back games vs. the Lions and Colts, who both rank in the bottom 10 in defensive EPA. They’ve won games almost solely on the back of their defense, and I just don’t think that’s possible against Allen.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) vs. New York Giants

• Best Odds: -118; DraftKings
• Play To: +3.5 (-120) or +3.0 (-105)

The Eagles are going to be down to their No. 3 QB this Sunday. Jalen Hurts remains out indefinitely with blood clots, while Tanner McKee has been benched after three ineffective starts. He averaged just 5.2 adjusted yards per attempt, despite facing a trio of uninspiring defenses (Panthers, Cowboys, and Commanders).

Joe Milton will get a crack at the job vs. the Giants. He’s an interesting prospect at quarterback. This will be his first career start, but we’ve seen him have some success in the past. He came off the bench to lead the Patriots to a win over the Bills in Week 18 of the 2024-25 season, averaging 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt in the process. He also lit up the preseason with the Cowboys this season, racking up 378 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 118.2 passer rating.

Going from the preseason to the real deal is obviously a huge leap, but there are at least reasons to be optimistic about Milton. At a minimum, he looks like a potential upgrade over McKee.

The Eagles still have plenty of other problems outside of quarterback, but I’m not sure they deserve to be 3.5-point road favorites vs. the Giants. New York has a 4-2-1 record, but they are simply not a good football team. They have the seventh-worst DVOA, and starting QB J.J. McCarthy has a long way to go to prove himself at the NFL level. I’m happy to grab this game at better than a field goal.

Washington Commanders (+4.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Best Odds: -102; DraftKings
• Play To: -110

The Commanders continue to stand out as one of the more undervalued teams in the market. While they have struggled to win games this season, they have been extremely competitive with Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Only two of their losses have been by more than one score, and both games featured an injury at quarterback. Daniels exited before halftime in their Week 2 loss vs. the Cowboys, while they were down to their third-string QB in their overseas loss to the Colts.

This week’s matchup vs. the Rams will be a significant test. The Rams entered the year as the Super Bowl favorites, and while they haven’t performed quite at that level, they’re still extremely formidable. Getting back Myles Garrett would only make them scarier: he was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday.

That said, they still have plenty of other injuries to contend with. Guys like Davante Adams, Jaylen Watson, and Poona Ford are all out for extended periods. The Rams were built as an extremely top-heavy team, and their depth has been tested. It’s resulted in them putting together a few disappointing performances, particularly against the Cardinals and Eagles. If those two teams can cover vs. the Rams, I see no reason why the Commanders can’t do the same.

Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Best Odds: -105; FanDuel
• Play To: -112

Sam Darnold has been ruled out for the Seahawks this week, which means they’re going back to Drew Lock. While that’s probably a downgrade, I’m not sure it’s as big as you think. Lock has fared well in relief of Darnold so far this season, averaging an elite 10.5 adjusted yards per attempt.

Notably, his one start this year came on the road vs. the Cardinals, and he propelled them to a 24-point victory. Now, he gets to face them in Seattle. All he really needs to do is get the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and let him do the rest. The two linked up for nine catches, 155 yards, and three scores in the previous meeting, and he’s been basically unstoppable all year. Arizona should have no answers for him, and I don’t expect Gardner Minshew to do much damage against Seattle’s outstanding defense. I almost never lay this many points, but this feels like a worthy exception.