DraftKings NFL DFS Picks For Vikings vs. Bills MNF Showdown Slate

NFL Week 9 features one of the most intriguing stylistic clashes of the entire season. The Buffalo Bills will take their elite offense on the road to square off with the Minnesota Vikings and their elite defense.

This is nothing new for the Bills. Josh Allen has been the best QB in the league for at least a couple of seasons, and he’s taken his game to another level this year. He’s already racked up 20 total touchdowns through just seven games, and the Bills enter this week first in the league in EPA per play.

The Vikings’ defense doesn’t have the same star power as the Bills’ offense, but they’ve been just as effective. They’re second in the league in defensive EPA per play, and they’ve propelled the Vikings to a 6-1 record.

Adding another wrinkle to this matchup is that both squads have been abysmal on the other side of the ball: the Bills are 27th in defensive EPA, while the Vikings are 29th on offense. Whichever of the two “weaker” sides prevails could ultimately end up deciding this contest.

Let’s dive into some of my favorite DFS options for Monday Night Football.

NFL DFS Picks For Vikings vs. Bills DraftKings Showdown Slate

Stud Picks For DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown Slate - Vikings vs. Bills

Josh Allen ($11,400 Flex, $17,100 Captain)

There’s not much left to say about Allen at this point. He’s the best quarterback in the league, and the unquestioned best quarterback in fantasy football. He’s accounted for 20 total touchdowns through his first seven games (11 passing and nine rushing), resulting in more than 27 fantasy points per game.

Allen is going to face a stiff test this week. The Vikings’ defense has been outstanding, and they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. They blitz more than any defense in football, and a potent pass-rush can make any QB look mortal.

The good news is that Allen has fared well against the blitz this season. He’s averaged +0.14 EPA per play, which is the sixth-best mark at quarterback.

Ultimately, I don’t think any defense can really stop Allen at this point. If he doesn’t beat you with his arms, he’ll do it with his legs. One way or another, he’s going to get the job done. He leads this slate in projected fantasy points by a comfortable margin, with only one guy within five points.

Justin Jefferson ($9,800 Flex, $14,700 Captain)

You have to feel bad for Jefferson at this point. He had a historic first five seasons, with no receiver in NFL history producing so much so early. However, he has recently moved into “Larry Fitzgerald” territory: we know he’s still elite, but his quarterbacks can’t get him the ball. He’s averaging a career-worst 55.8 receiving yards per game, while he’s merely WR28 in terms of fantasy points per game.

That said, if any spot called for a Jefferson breakout, it’s this one. The Bills are 26th in the league in EPA per pass defensively, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. It gives Jefferson an xFinity Fantasy Boost of +4.5, which is the best mark on this slate.

The fact that Minnesota will be without Kyler Murray could also work in Jefferson’s favor. When we’ve seen Carson Wentz this season, he’s been more productive: he’s averaged 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt, compared to just 6.4 for Murray. Jefferson had 31.2 DraftKings points when Wentz came on in relief of Murray vs. the Packers, so it gives him a higher ceiling at a minimum.

DraftKings NFL DFS Value Picks For MIN vs. BUF Showdown

Carson Wentz ($9,000 Flex, $13,500 Captain)

Speaking of Wentz, he’s also in play in this matchup. It will be his second start this season, and things didn’t exactly go great in the first. He had just 6.32 DraftKings points vs. the Bears back in Week 2. Of course, Chicago’s defense is significantly more imposing than Buffalo’s, and that game was also played in subpar weather.

Wentz had 19.22 DraftKings points in relief of Murray vs. the Packers, tossing three touchdowns on just 19 pass attempts. While I wouldn’t expect that type of efficiency, it’s certainly possible vs. the Bills. They’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and the Vikings will likely need to throw the ball a bit more than usual. Add in an affordable price tag for a QB in the single-game format, and he looks like a strong target.

T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 Flex, $8,100 Captain)

Hockenson seems way too affordable on this slate given our projections. We have him in a similar range as guys like DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid, despite both players being significantly more expensive.

Hockenson’s numbers don’t jump off the page this season, but he’s posted an excellent 20% target share through the first eight weeks. That pretty quietly ranks sixth among all TEs. He also has 30% of the Vikings’ endzone targets, and he’s being used a bit further downfield than he did last season. Overall, his utilization suggests he should be significantly more expensive than he actually is.

Differentiators For Your DraftKings NFL DFS Showdown Lineups

Tyler Bass ($4,600 Flex, $6,900 Captain)

When you think of the Bills’ offense, you think about touchdowns more than field goals. However, Bass has chipped in at least 13 fantasy points in three straight games. He has at least eight fantasy points in five of seven contests this season, and the Bills’ offense could be forced into more FG opportunities than usual against the Vikings. Bass is also less expensive than he’s been in the single-game format all year, which is a nice combination.

Tai Felton ($1,000 Flex, $1,500 Captain)

With Jauan Jennings sidelined for the Vikings, it opens the door for Felton to serve as the team’s No. 3 receiver. We’ve seen Felton in that role previously this season, and the results weren’t exactly promising. However, he posted a 73% route participation from Weeks 3 through 5, and he could see a similar volume of snaps this week. That’s enough for him to potentially make an impact. He doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary, and he’s also projected to have less than 10% ownership.