Hidden Gems. Week 11 Underdog Battle Royale Value Picks.
Before we dive into the Week 11 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:
- Week 10: Seattle/Washington hit, but not in a big enough way to win tournaments
- Week 9: Rough week, only Hunter Henry helped squads
- Week 8: Whiffed on our AFC South QB stacks, but Trey Mcbride did us proud
- Week 7: Very upset we didn’t unearth D’onta Foreman, but Rashee Rice and James Cook got there
- Week 6: Rough week, had the wrong QB/TE duo from Commanders/Falcons game
- Week 5: Resurrection bye week
- Week 4: Fields breakout game vs. the Broncos
- Week 3: Whiffed on our RBs and Jahan Doson, but nailed Tank Dell
- Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.
- Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points
Last week was not the week for Hidden Gems.
Every player on the winning team (Dak Prescott, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker III, CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, and T.J. Hockenson) was selected in nearly 100% of drafts.
When weeks like that happen, it means you need the perfect combinations of players (Lamb/Keenan was pretty difficult to get in most rooms) to separate from hundreds of teams who have very similar lineups.
I thought Gibbs and Hockenson were being over-drafted relative to their median projections, but they both accessed big ceiling games that sent my potential winnings down the drain.
That’s okay, it’s always going to be hard to win on weeks where the “chalk” hits.
Fortunately for us, Week 11 presents us with another great opportunity to scroll down for some gems that are going overlooked in drafts and allow us to get leverage on the field.
Read on for a QB/WR stack I love, as well as a passing offense to buy the dip on…
As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
Arizona Cardinals Stack
- Kyler Murray (ADP: 34.3; QB8)
- Marquise Brown (ADP: 35.3, WR21)
There’s no question that Murray is fully back after orchestrating last week’s come-from-behind victory, including this vintage scramble for a first down to put the Cardinals in game-winning field goal range.
But for some reason, enthusiasm for Murray has not translated over to the Underdog Fantasy draft market, where he’s going as QB8.
His ADP indicates that he’s selected in less than 20% of drafts, and when he is taken, it’s almost always paired with his uber-popular TE, Trey McBride, who is going off the board as the TE3 and is selected in 100% of drafts.
This presents us with the perfect pivot to pass on McBride and pair Kyler with Hollywood for a unique, high-upside stack.
To sweeten things even further, this duo gives us sneaky access to the highest-scoring game (49-point over/under) on the main slate:
The Texans have allowed big games to QBs this year–they’ve given up the 8th most points to QBs—and Murray should get more comfortable as a passer with a full game under his belt.
Brown, who still maintains an elite usage profile (27% target market share and 41% air yard share on the year), narrowly missed a sheesh-worthy TD last week that would have made him more popular this week.
BONUS CORRELATION: No need to force this, but sprinkle in some Devin Singletary to your Cardinals stacks. He’s barely being drafted, Dameon Pierce isn’t expected to play again, and he is coming off a 30-touch game. Read more about him in Freedman’s Favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stack
- Christian Kirk (ADP: 35.4; WR20)
- Evan Engram (ADP: 35, TE8)
I know, I know. It doesn’t feel good going back to the Jaguars well after they flopped vs. the Niners last week, but this sets up as a bounce-back spot where we can buy the dip as the field steers clear.
The Jaguars offense has been a big disappointment this year and seems to lack creativity, but the Titans defense can help all but the most defunct offenses get back on track. They’ve given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and have become an extremely leaky secondary since shipping All-Pro FS Kevin Byard at the trade deadline.
Kirk has established himself as the clear alpha in the Jags passing game and was the lone bright spot last week (6-104), earning 34% of the targets:
Engram, who no one wants to touch after a scoreless 4-12 outing in Week 10, still commanded 21% of the team’s targets. He sits alongside elite company as the TE2 on the year when sorting by target share:
Now back at home in a must-win game, I like taking stabs on one of Kirk or Engram in my drafts. Because this offense has not shown an ability to support multiple high-end pieces (and Travis Etienne will continue to get his), I’m hesitant to double-stack these guys with Trevor Lawrence, but it’s not completely out of the question.
BONUS CORRELATION: Similar to the Singletary runback, there’s no need to force this, but DeAndre Hopkins would be a solid mini-correlation with one of these Jags pieces. The Jags' secondary just got torched by the Niners, Hopkins has a solid 27% target share on the year, and we know the potential for a ceiling game with Will Levis is possible.
Good luck in Week 11, let’s take down some tournaments.
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