Week 1 Hidden Gems. Underdog Battle Royale Picks.
If there is ever a week to be contrarian in daily contests, it’s in Week 1.
Sure, we think we have everything figured out because we’ve been drafting all summer, but these NFL teams are about to throw us some real curve balls.
As the season progresses, our ability to project fantasy points will get better and better.
We’ll have solidified depth charts, usage trends, pacing notes, and a myriad of other data points to make our projections as accurate as possible.
But in Week 1? It’s the Wild West.
Projections might be directionally accurate on the whole, but we are all collectively going to be wrong about a lot. And this dynamic means we should feel comfortable going off the beaten path to construct unique rosters that can compete with the more popular, “chalky” plays at a fraction of the field exposure.
Here is a player at each position who you should be willing to scroll down for in the Week 1 Battle Royale contests on Underdog (where they are regularly going undrafted) and when putting together DFS lineups (where they are expected to be rostered by less than 10% of the field)...
Special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.
QB: Sam Howell
- (ADP: 35.8; Drafted less than 6% of the time)
Because the Battle Royale contests only feature 36 picks (6 drafters and 6 rounds), it means only 6 QBs are drafted in every contest. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson project for the most points on the slate, but the next dozen QBs all project within a very similar band of points (16-22).
This means we should largely be fading the QBs who are getting drafted in every Royale contest, but project similarly to the players who are going undrafted.
The Commanders open up the season at home as 7 point favorites vs. the worst team in football, which immediately puts their QB in conversation as a hidden gem. We’ve made it plenty clear around here how much we love Sam Howell, and this is the perfect opportunity to play him before the rest of the field catches up to his viability as a high ceiling QB option in the right spots.
Jahan Dotson is the best stacking partner, but Curtis Samuel could be a very intriguing sleeper option if Terry McLaurin misses, or is limited, in Week 1.
RB: Samaje Perine
- (ADP: 36; Drafted less than 1% of the time)
Look, I love Javonte Williams. I think he has the talent to lead people to fantasy championships down the stretch.
But this is a Week 1 contest, not Week 17, which makes it pretty puzzling that the Broncos lead back, who was hand picked by Sean Payton in free agency, is going undrafted as the RB28 in Royale contests behind true back ups like Tyler Allgeier and Deon Jackson.
The Broncos are 4-point home favorites vs. a putrid Raiders defense and Perine should be heavily involved in both the run and passing game.
All signs point to Denver easing Williams back in after his long hiatus, so Perine should have a clear path to 15+ touches in a very good matchup.
The entire Broncos offense is going overlooked in this spot. I wouldn’t hesitate to mix in some Courtland Sutton and Greg Dulcich, as well, especially if Jerry Jeudy misses.
WR: Brandon Aiyuk
- (ADP: 35.9; Drafted less than 1% of the time)
Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle get drafted in every single Week 1 Battle Royale contest. This dynamic presents us with a game theory opportunity we should be looking to exploit in these contests: leverage.
We know offenses like the Niners who have multiple talented players (the Eagles and Bills are two other prime examples) can beat you in a variety of ways. Brandon Aiyuk might not project for as many points as the Big 3, but he is always in the mix to be the leading scorer for the Niners.
Aug 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) during the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
When we pass on the other Niners and select Aiyuk, we are getting to make a leveraged bet that accomplishes two things:
- If Aiyuk is the highest scoring Niner, only a small percentage of the field will have them on their rosters because he went mostly undrafted
- If Aiyuk is the highest scoring Niner, it likely means that McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle failed to reach a 90th+ percentile outcome and therefore prevented 2-3 other teams from fielding a roster that could compete for a top prize
This will be a lesson we hammer home throughout the course of the season in these contests. We should always be asking ourselves, if the popular plays fail, how can I benefit?
TE: Pat Freiermuth
- (ADP: 35.6; Drafted less than 6% of the time)
Similar to the QB dynamic, only six tight ends are drafted in every Royale contest.
Outside of Mark Andrews, the rest of the position projects very similarly, which means we should be willing to go off the board and play the tight ends who are not being drafted in every contest.
I know it is tough to scroll down past Dallas Goedert and Tyler Higbee, but the projections just aren’t that different for TEs 7-12 compared to TEs 2-6. The tight end position is extremely volatile and highly reliant on TDs for scoring, which makes it all the more important to prioritize uniqueness over projection.
These situations where we don’t have to sacrifice a lot of projection while getting someone who is being drafted at a significantly less frequent clip is the stuff contrarian dreams are made of.
Now back to Pat Freiermuth…Kenny Pickett looks like he’s ready to make the leap in 2023 and Freiermuth, along with Diontae Johnson, project to be his favorite targets. In this tough home matchup vs. the Niners, I expect Freiermuth to get peppered with targets as the Steelers play from behind.
BONUS: Playing Aiyuk and Freiermuth in the same game as a mini-correlation is a fun way to get hidden gem exposure to a game that I expect to go over its 41-point total.
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