Sleeper Over/Under Picks. Week 13
Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.
You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.
For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit up to $100.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests in NFL Week 13.
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DJ Chark Under 40.5 Receiving Yards
Chark has missed a solid part of the year due to injuries, but he’s suited up in each of the Lions’ past two games. That said, it doesn’t seem like anyone told Jared Goff. Chark was held without a catch in Week 11 versus the Giants, and he had just two catches for 16 yards in Week 12.
Chark’s numbers were way up in Week 12, running a route on 80% of the team’s dropbacks. However, Amon-Ra St. Brown is such a target hog that it doesn’t leave much for the rest of the squad. He’s had at least 31% of the team’s targets in each of the past four weeks, and he’s been targeted on 33.9% of his routes run this season. That’s the top mark among all wide receivers with at least 50 routes run, edging out other high-volume receivers like Tyreek Hill (33.0%), CeeDee Lamb (31.9%), and Cooper Kupp (31.2%).
Chark’s five targets last week were tied with Kalif Raymond, so he’s not even the team’s clear No. 2 receiver at the moment. First-round rookie Jameson Williams is also inching towards his NFL debut, with the Lions officially activating him from injured reserve in Week 12. It seems like he’s more likely to return in Week 14 than this week, but Chark’s arrow is clearly pointing down.
Derrick Henry Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
The Big Dog has been pretty well neutered over the past few weeks. He’s racked up 64 carries in his past three contests, but he’s averaged a paltry 2.78 yards per attempt. The result is an average of just 59.3 yards per game, which has caused him to fall behind Josh Jacobs on the rushing leaderboard.
Still, Henry remains one of the busiest running backs in football and despite his recent struggles, he’s still averaged 95.3 rushing yards per game. The Titans rank 30th in the league in pass rate over expectation, so their offense largely goes as Henry does.
The Titans rarely need an excuse to run the ball, but they have a good one in Week 13. The Eagles have been stout against the pass on defense, ranking second in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve been vulnerable against the run. The team brought in Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh to try and shore up their run defense, but it remains to be seen if that will make a significant difference.
Ultimately, Henry has gotten to at least 85 yards in seven of his 11 contests, and he just narrowly missed that mark in an eighth. As long as the Titans can keep this game competitive, I like his chances for a bounce-back game.
Kenneth Walker III Over 70.5 Rushing Yards
An injury to Rashaad Penny has opened the door for Walker in Seattle, and he has taken full advantage. He’s started the past six games for the Seahawks, and he’s racked up just under 95 scrimmage yards per game. He’s also added eight touchdowns, which has vaulted him to the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year leaderboards. Walker is currently priced at -150 to win the award, giving him a significant edge over Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, and Dameon Pierce.
Walker and the Seahawks are in a potential eruption spot in Week 13. They’re taking on the Rams, who have had a swift fall from grace after winning the Super Bowl last season. They’re currently sitting at just 3-8, and their roster looks like it would struggle to win games in the XFL. With Bryce Perkins at the helm in Week 12, the team managed just 198 yards against a weak Chiefs defense.
As a result, the Seahawks are listed as massive seven-point road favorites. That should result in a favorable game script for Walker. The Rams have been stout against the run this season – they’re currently ranked fifth in rush defense DVOA – but Walker has a chance to get to 20+ carries in this spot. Walker has had at least 20 carries in three career games, and he’s racked up at least 97 rushing yards in each of them.
Oct 23, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Ryan Under 223.5 Passing Yards
The revolving door at quarterback in Indianapolis may never stop spinning. The team hoped they solved their issues at the position by bringing in Ryan this offseason, but he has proven to be no upgrade over their previous options. They’ve tried six different starting quarterbacks since Andrew Luck retired – Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Ryan, and Sam Ehlinger – but none has been able to give the team stability.
The Colts got a shot in the arm after hiring Jeff Saturday as interim head coach, pulling off a win over the Raiders and a one-point loss to the Eagles, but they came crashing back to reality in Week 12. They suffered a seven-point home loss to the Steelers, and they managed just 290 yards of total offense.
Ryan has been under 223.5 passing yards in all three games since being reinstated as the Colts’ starter, and now he has to navigate the toughest pass defense in the league. The Cowboys' defensive line has been demolishing opponents all year, ranking first in the league in adjusted sack rate. They’ve held 10 of their 11 opponents to less than 210 net passing yards, and they’ve managed to stifle guys like Joe Burrow (199 passing yards), Jalen Hurts (155), and Kirk Cousins (105). If none of those teams could find success against the Cowboys, how in the world are the Colts going to? I have no problem backing the under in this spot.
Jaylen Waddle Under 66.5 Receiving Yards
The Dolphins enter Week 13 as one of the hottest teams in football. They’ve rattled off five straight wins, and they’re now a perfect 8-0 in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa.
Tua has started to get legit MVP buzz, but the Dolphins’ dynamic duo at receiver deserves plenty of credit. Waddle and Tyreek Hill have done significant damage this season, combining for 52.2% of the team’s targets and 69.5% of their air yards. Hill has gotten most of the attention, but Waddle had at least 85 receiving yards in four of five games since Tua returned to the lineup.
However, it’s worth noting that the stretch came against a very weak schedule. Their past five wins came against the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans, and each of those teams has been exploitable defensively.
The Dolphins are going to face a serious step up in weight class in Week 13. The 49ers’ defense has been just as dominant as the Dolphins’ offense of late, and they’ve kept their past four opponents off the scoreboard in the second half.
The biggest concern with the Dolphins is on the offensive line. They’ve been without both starting offensive tackles at practice this week, and there’s a legit chance that neither player is able to suit up in San Francisco. That would spell huge trouble against a stout 49ers defensive line, and it would limit the ability for guys like Hill and Waddle to get downfield. With that in mind, I’m not expecting Waddle to have much success in this matchup.
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