Underdog Pick'em Best Plays. Week 13
Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.
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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 13.
Drake London Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
The Falcons are still very live in the NFC South. They’ve won just five of their first 12 games, but the NFC South is easily the worst division in football. The Buccaneers are currently leading the division at 5-6, so the Falcons are just one game back in the loss column.
The Falcons’ offensive identity is built on the run. They rank 31st in pass rate over expectation, so they keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Even against a stout Commanders run defense last week, the Falcons attempted just 25 passes compared to 29 runs.
Still, the team has to take to the air occasionally, and when they do, London is their top option. He’s racked up a 25.9% target market share this season, which trails only Kyle Pitts’ mark of 26.6% among the team’s pass-catchers. Pitts has been shut down for the rest of the season, so London could see an even larger role moving forward.
That didn’t materialize last week, with London racking up four targets compared to eight for Olamide Zaccheaus. However, Zaccheus had just eight total targets in the three previous weeks, while London had 16. That makes this an excellent buy-low opportunity.
Austin Ekeler Under 46.5 Receiving Yards
Ekeler’s volume in the passing game is enormous. He gobbles up targets the same way I gobble up sushi at an all-you-can-eat buffet. He had 15 targets last week vs. the Cardinals, which he converted into 11 catches for 60 yards. Ekeler has had at least 12 targets in four of his past six games, and he’s been targeted on 35.9% of his routes run this season. That’s easily the top mark for high-volume running backs, with Christian McCaffrey checking in second at 31.3%.
Still, all those targets haven’t exactly resulted in a ton of receiving yards. Ekeler has had less than 40 yards in five of his 11 contests, and he’s been below 50 in three others. He’s already had two games with at least 12 targets and 47 or fewer receiving yards, which is tough to accomplish.
Ekeler’s role in the passing game also doesn’t need to be quite as large, with the team getting healthier. Keenan Allen has suited up in each of the past two games, and there’s a chance that Mike Williams is able to return to the lineup this week.
The Raiders also present an interesting matchup. They’ve been the worst pass defense in the league this season, and they have struggled at defending RBs in the passing game. However, they’ve also struggled against virtually every other position. It’s possible that Justin Herbert can push the ball downfield a bit more than usual in this spot, so Ekeler might not have to carry as much of the load. Ultimately, there’s enough here to take a look at the under.
D.K. Metcalf Under 5.5 Receptions
The Seahawks have a date with the defending champs this weekend, but both of these teams have had far different years than expected. The Seahawks are challenging for a playoff spot, while the Rams are already thinking about where they’re going to vacation in the offseason. The Seahawks are listed as seven-point road favorites, which would’ve been unfathomable before the start of the year.
The big reason for the Seahawks success has been their passing game. Geno Smith has been extremely efficient, leading the league with a 72.8% completion percentage, which has led to plenty of success for Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Metcalf is coming off a huge game last week vs. the Raiders. He racked up a season-high 15 targets, which he converted into 11 catches. That stands out as a clear outlier. His previous season high was seven catches, and he had five catches or fewer in six of his first 10 games.
That alone is enough to make Metcalf a sell-high target, but the matchup is also concerning. The Rams still have one of the best corners in football in Jalen Ramsey, and the Seahawks could lean on their running game if they build a big lead. The Rams looked completely inept on offense with Bryce Perkins at quarterback last week, so there is plenty of potential for Seattle to turn this game into a laugher.
Nick Chubb Over 91.5 Rushing Yards
Chubb doesn’t get enough love when talking about the best running backs in football. He’s averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in all five seasons as a professional, and he’s already cracked 1,000 rushing yards this season. He just narrowly missed that mark as a rookie, finishing with 996 yards on limited touches, but he’s now done it in four straight years. The only other running back in Cleveland history with four straight 1,000-yard seasons? The legendary Jim Brown.
Chubb is in a fantastic position to build on his success in Week 13. The Browns are taking on the Texans, who have been one of the worst teams in the league against the run this season. They rank 30th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed at least 136 rushing yards in all but two games.
The Browns may not go quite as run-heavy as usual with DeShaun Watson at quarterback, but Watson could be a bit rusty in his first game in nearly two years. He should hand the ball off to Chubb plenty in this spot, and history suggests that Chubb will make the most of his opportunities.
Justin Jefferson Over 86.5 Receiving Yards
This may seem like a high number, but getting to 87 receiving yards is child’s play for Jefferson. He’s averaged at least 87.5 receiving yards in each of his three NFL seasons, culminating with a ridiculous 112.0 yards per game this season. He’s had at least 98 receiving yards in eight of his 11 contests, including 139 yards last week vs. the Patriots.
That last game is telling since the Patriots entered that contest first in the league in pass defense DVOA. The Jets are another team that possesses a strong pass defense, spearheaded by rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner. Gardner ranks first at the position in terms of Pro Football Focus grade, and he has been an absolute demon in pass coverage. He’s been targeted 53 times through his first 10 games, and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 43.4% of those passes. He’s allowed just 239 receiving yards in total, so he has been basically unbeatable.
However, Garnder is just one part of the Jets’ secondary, and he doesn’t move around the field very often. It shouldn’t be all that difficult for the Vikings to script situations where Jefferson is being guarded by someone else. Even when Gardner is opposing Jefferson, there’s no guarantee he can shut down the best receiver in football.
Given what we’ve seen from Jefferson so far this season, I’m backing him to go over 86.5 receiving yards against anyone.
If you play Over/Under on Sleeper, check out my picks here!
