Sleeper Over/Under Picks. Divisional Round

Player props are becoming an increasingly popular market, and Sleeper Fantasy is one of the newest platforms to get in on the fun.

You may have heard of Sleeper previously – you might even play in a fantasy league hosted by Sleeper – but did you know that they also offer over/under contests? The format is simple: pick your players, pick the category, and choose whether or not they’ll go over or under the listed number. The more picks you add to your card, the bigger the potential payout.

For more information on Sleeper over/under contests, make sure to check out our review. You can even grab a promo code to match a first-time deposit of up to $100.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Sleeper over/under contests during the NFL Divisional Round.

Also, you can find all of my picks and plays on Fantasy Life's Game Hub!

Ezekiel Elliott Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Elliott is simply not going away. It’s getting comical how much better Tony Pollard is than Zeke at this point. Pollard dominated during the regular season, racking up 5.2 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per reception, while Zeke plodded his way to 3.8 and 5.4 yards, respectively. That discrepancy continued in the first round of the playoffs, with Pollard averaging 5.13 yards per carry and Elliott averaging 2.08 yards per carry against the Buccaneers.

However, Elliott has two things that Pollard doesn’t: a big fat contract and the undying love of owner Jerry Jones. Elliott is very much Jones’ guy, and as long as Jones is running things in Dallas, Elliott is going to remain in the picture. Even though it’s clear to anyone with eyes that Pollard is the better player, the Cowboys are going to have a role for Elliott each week.

The two players split the carries pretty evenly versus the Bucs, with Pollard racking up 17 carries and Zeke racking up 13. Ultimately, Elliott had at least 10 carries in all but one game this season, and he had at least 13 in all but two. The 49ers are a difficult matchup, but Elliott is going to get double-digit carries as long as this game stays competitive. That means he doesn’t even need to be all that effective to potentially hit the over on his rushing prop.

Joe Burrow Under 278.5 Passing Yards

The Bengals will take on the Bills in what is arguably the marquee matchup of the Divisional Round. Burrow versus Josh Allen pits two of the top QBs in football against each other, and both have Super Bowl aspirations. The Bengals made it to the Super Bowl last season, while the Bills have been the best team this season by most statistical measures.

However, the Bengals will have to overcome some serious absences along their offensive line. The team will likely be down three starters at the position – Alex Cappa, La’el Collins, and Jonah Williams – and they weren’t exactly a dominant blocking team to begin with. Burrow was sacked another 41 times this season after leading the league with 51 sacks taken last year. Burrow is good enough to overcome a lot of their deficiencies, but he’s going to have his hands full facing the Bills.

Buffalo isn’t a dominant pass-rushing unit, especially since losing Von Miller to an injury, but they’re still capable of getting after the quarterback. Pro Football Focus graded Greg Rousseau as the No. 13 pass rusher among edge defenders this season, while DaQuan Jones was 22nd among interior defenders.

Ultimately, Burrow will likely have to get the ball out a bit quicker than usual in this spot. He averaged just under 280 passing yards per game during the regular season, so it’s reasonable to expect a bit of a decrease.

Isaiah Pacheco Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

Jerick McKinnon got most of the attention among the Chiefs’ running backs down the stretch, and it was 100% deserved. He’s the Chiefs’ most complete running back, and he was an absolute monster catching passes out of the backfield. He racked up averages of 4.5 receptions and 45.7 receiving yards over the team’s final six games, and he scored eight receiving touchdowns during that stretch.

McKinnon might see more snaps than Pacheco on Sunday, but the rookie remains the team’s top between-the-tackles grinder. He took over as the team’s top option in Week 10, and he averaged 14 carries and 70.3 rushing yards over their final nine contests. He had at least 58 rushing yards in all but one of those games, and he averaged 5.02 yards per attempt.

The Chiefs should be able to throw the ball at will against the Jaguars – they rank 30th in pass defense DVOA – but that should still leave a solid handful of attempts for Pacheco. The Chiefs are also favored by more than a touchdown in this spot, so there’s a chance that the team is looking to kill the clock on the ground late. If that scenario arises, Pacheco will be the guy tasked with doing it.

Jan 1, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) runs the ball against Denver Broncos linebacker Josey Jewell (47) and safety Kareem Jackson (22) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Rushing Yards

Mahomes turned in another stellar season with the Chiefs, leading the league with 5,250 yards and 41 touchdown passes. He also finished first in QBR and second in PFF grade, and he’s likely to take home the second MVP award of his career.

Mahomes absolutely shredded the Jaguars with his arm when these teams met in the regular season, racking up 331 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 10-point victory. However, he also did some good work with his legs, turning seven carries into 39 yards. That was his high-water mark for carries during the regular season, and it was his second-highest performance from a yardage perspective.

Now that the playoffs have started, expect Mahomes to turn things up with his legs. He has excellent mobility for a quarterback, even though he doesn’t typically display it during the regular season. He averaged just 19.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, but in the playoffs, that figure jumps to 29.4. He averaged 39.0 rushing yards in his three postseason contests last year, and he has at least 29 rushing yards in six of his past nine playoff outings.

Ultimately, I will probably be on Mahomes’ rushing over as long as KC is in the playoffs and the number is reasonable.

Jalen Hurts Under 51.5 Rushing Yards

As good as Mahomes was this season, there’s a good chance that Hurts would have won the MVP if not for a late-season injury. He was basically unstoppable through the first 15 weeks this season, doing damage with both his arm and his legs. He averaged 248 passing yards per game with 22 total scores, and he added another 53.4 yards per game and 13 touchdowns on the ground.

Hurts sat out for two games before returning to the lineup in Week 18, and he was not nearly the same player in that contest. He averaged just 5.26 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer – his worst mark of the season – and his rushing production was extremely average. He turned nine carries into just 13 yards against the Giants after averaging 11.0 yards per carry in his first meeting with New York.

Hurts had another week to rest his injured shoulder during the bye, and he has been officially removed from the team’s injury report ahead of their first playoff contest. Still, I’m skeptical that he’s at 100%. It wouldn’t be a huge shocker if he’s a bit less aggressive as a runner in order to reduce the number of hits he has to take. Hurts was slightly less aggressive as a runner as the year progressed to begin with, so I think this number is a smidge too high.

If you play Pick'em on Underdog Fantasy, check out my picks here.