Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.

If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, make sure to take advantage of a first-time deposit match of up to $100. Just sign up using our link or by entering promo code LIFE.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests for the Divisional Round.

James Cook Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

The Bills drafted Cook in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, adding to what was already an abundance of riches on the offensive side of the ball. Cook blazed a 4.42 40-yard dash at the combine – putting him in the 94th percentile at the position – and he averaged a robust 6.6 yards per carry at the University of Georgia. He didn’t see a ton of attempts in college, but that tends to happen when you play at the school with arguably more talent than anyone else.

The Bills took their time easing Cook into the fold this season, but he has forced his way into a committee with Devin Singletary. Singletary led the position group with 55% of the snaps last week, but Cook led the team in carries for the second straight week. He racked up 50% of the team’s rushing opportunities, and he converted his 12 carries into 39 yards.

I expect a similar level of volume against the Bengals, but he should be able to improve upon his efficiency. The Dolphins were fourth in the league in rush defense DVOA, but the Bengals are a bit more exploitable. Cook also averaged an outstanding 5.7 yards per carry during the regular season, so this seems like a great opportunity to buy low on a talented player.

Marvin Jones Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Full disclosure: I have a soft spot in my heart for Jones. For years, Jones has been disrespected by the fantasy community, and he routinely returned positive value relative to his ADP. It didn’t matter if he was in Cincinnati, Detroit, or Jacksonville; the guy simply got the job done.

Jones has taken a backseat to some of the Jaguars’ new additions this season, ranking fourth on the team in target share behind Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. However, Jones still produced when called up, averaging 11.5 yards per reception and more than 33 yards per game.

If last week is any indication, the Jaguars are going to lean on Jones a bit heavier during the postseason. He posted a route participation of 91% in the Wild Card Round, and he racked up six targets, three catches, 29 yards, and a touchdown versus the Chargers. Jones has now seen at least six targets in four of his past five games, and he’s had at least 29 receiving yards in three straight.

The Jaguars will likely need to lean heavily on their passing attack once again in the Divisional Round. They’re taking on the Chiefs and Kansas City can light up the scoreboard like no one else in football. However, they were just 20th in pass defense DVOA. This game has some serious offensive upside, and Jones should be a part of it.

Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Goedert was quietly on pace for a big season at tight end. He was a major force in the Eagles’ aerial attack in Weeks 1 through 10, racking up a 20.5% target share. That was just slightly lower than A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and it ranked as the fourth-best mark at the tight end position.

Goedert returned to the lineup in Week 16, but unfortunately, that was right when Jalen Hurts went down with an injury. The two were able to get in a brief tune-up in the final week of the regular season and their chemistry looked as good as ever. Goedert racked up a 19% target share, and the two connected for six catches and 46 yards.

Both Hurts and Goedert are officially off the team’s injury report, so they should be ready to get back to work against the Giants. It’s a fantastic matchup for Goedert, with the Giants ranking 31st in DVOA versus opposing tight ends. 

Nov 14, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) spikes the football after making a touchdown catch against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Tee Higgins Under 67.5 Receiving Yards

This prop has less to do with Higgins and more to do with the rest of the Bengals. Higgins is an excellent receiver, but he has taken a clear backseat to Ja’Marr Chase in recent weeks. Following an injury, Chase returned to the lineup in full capacity in Week 14, and he has been an absolute target hog since then. He’s racked up 33.5% of the Bengals’ targets in that stretch, while Higgins has been at just 15.7%. The split was much closer earlier in the year, so Chase has really grabbed the reins as the team’s top receiver.

That split was just as pronounced in the team’s first playoff contest. Chase racked up a 38% target share versus the Ravens, while Higgins was down at 19%. Higgins’ targets were slightly further downfield, but he still managed just four catches for 37 yards.

The team also has some major offensive line issues at the moment. They’re going to be down three of their usual starters to face the Bills, and they weren’t exactly a powerful pass-blocking unit to begin with. The Bills don’t possess a dominant pass rush, but they could still force Joe Burrow to get rid of the ball a bit quicker than usual. That doesn’t bode well for Higgins’ prospects in this contest.

Brock Purdy Under 30.5 Pass Attempts

The Purdy bandwagon has officially reached full capacity. “Mr. Irrelevant” from the 2022 NFL Draft class has made the toughest football league in the world look like an absolute joke. He’s posted a perfect 6-0 record as a starter, and his performance against the Seahawks in his first postseason start was a masterclass. He finished with 332 passing yards and three touchdowns, and he even added 16 yards and a score with his legs. The team cruised to a 41-23 victory, and the 49ers have even surpassed the Eagles as the NFC favorites in some locations.

While Purdy has undeniably been impressive, he’s also yet to face a real NFL-caliber defense. His six starts have come against the Buccaneers, Seahawks (twice), Commanders, Raiders, and Cardinals, all of which rank 13th or worse in pass defense DVOA.

The Cowboys are going to represent a stiff step up in weight class. They’re third in pass defense DVOA, and they can get after the quarterback better than just about every other team in the league. Don’t be surprised if Mr. Irrelevant starts to look a bit less dominant.

The Cowboys haven’t been quite as strong against the run this season, so it’s probably in the 49ers’ best interest to make Purdy’s life as easy as possible. He’s attempted 30 passes or fewer in all but one of his starts this season, and I’m not expecting an uptick in volume in this spot.

If you play Over/Under on Sleeper, check out my picks here!

Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca
Matt LaMarca has worked full-time in the sports betting and DFS industry since 2018, with his work appearing on sites like The Action Network, DraftKings, Awesemo, and Props.com. He has a proven record as a bettor thanks to his analytic approach focused on line movement, public betting percentages, and trends. He specializes in the NFL and NBA sides, but he’s also had success in MLB, college football, and the player prop market. Matt is also an avid Mets fan who hopes to be alive for the team’s next World Series, whenever that may be.
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