Underdog Pick 'Em For Week 3: Derrick Henry Stampedes Cowboys In Rio

Week 2 was much lower scoring than Week 1 and it was a brutal week on the injury front, which has impacted the outlook for a handful of teams that looked promising to start the season. Closest to home for me is the Caleb Williams injury. Thankfully that didn't turn out to be a season ender, but it sure makes the Bears-Eagles matchup MNF, which I will be at, much less exciting than it would have been if Caleb was healthy.

To recap last week's picks, two of my three core picks hit with both of the passing-yard props cashing. Patrick Mahomes went way over his line and Cam Ward stayed just under his number. I did not do as well with the TD predictions, as neither Colston Loveland nor Drake Maye found the end zone. That entire Bears-Vikings game was an offensive disaster and doomed two of my picks as Jordan Addison also failed to reach his longest reception line. That is part of the danger of making picks early in the week when the weather picture was not as clear.

Every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 3 Underdog Pick 'Em Selections

Derrick Henry higher than 0.5 rushing TDs

Derrick Henry has the highest rushing TD projection in our Week 3 fantasy football projections, and for good reason. The 32-year-old RB doesn't seem to be slowing down as he's logged 5.3 YPC and 3.93 yards after contact per attempt, both of which are well above his career average. Henry also leads the league in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, and has converted three of those even carries into TDs.

The Cowboys defense also hasn't been very impressive against the run through two weeks, which is a problem against Baltimore. Dallas is giving up the fourth highest rushing success rate in the NFL while the Ravens have the highest rushing success rate. Considering the explosive weapons that Dallas has on its side of the ball, this seems like a clear situation where Baltimore will want to control the clock through the running game.

This game has the highest total of the week at 52.5 points, which suggests plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. The Ravens have been willing to lean on Henry when they have gotten close to the goal line so far this season, and I don't see a reason for that to change in this game.

The one wrinkle here is that this is the Brazil game and there are concerns about the field conditions. That isn't ideal, but I believe King Henry should be among the players least impacted by poor field conditions. His power running style is less reliant on the sharp cuts that could be tougher on a bad field.

Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush higher than 16.5 yards

Jahmyr Gibbs has a strong case as the best RB in the NFL right now, and he is the clear focal point of the Detroit offense. In Week 3, the Lions are big favorites against a Jets team that has definitely improved, but I believe is still a favorable matchup for opposing offenses. The Jets have been fortunate to face two of the least-functional rushing attacks in the Titans and Packers. The Lions are one of the NFL's best rushing teams and they are at home with extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night last week.

All of those factors stack up to make me like the Lions in this one. If they control the game like I think they will, that should lead to plenty of carries for Gibbs. The Fantasy Life projections have Gibbs for 21 rush attempts this week, and if he hits that number I like his odds of breaking one for a big gain.

Baker Mayfield lower than 229.5 passing yards

The Minnesota Vikings defense has looked strong through two games while the Bucs passing game has been far from convincing. The Fantasy Life projections have Baker Mayfield for just 209.6 yards in this game, and he is averaging just under 200 passing yards per game through the first two weeks.

Not only is this a tough matchup for the passing game when the Bucs do drop back, they might simply choose to not throw the ball that much in this one. The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate and have the lowest dropback success rate allowed, which could push Tampa toward a rush-heavy game plan. Limited pass attempts against one of the best pass defenses in the league is a tough recipe for Mayfield to hit this number.

Week 3 Longshot Picks

Emmett Johnson higher than 34.5 rushing yards

This is a game-script pick more than a projection pick. I expect the Chiefs to handle the Dolphins easily in this game, and the 10.5-point line suggests that is a reasonable assumption. If the Chiefs are in control of this game, I believe they will want to ease off of Kenneth Walker's workload, which opens the door for Emmett Johnson to see his most touches of the season.

For his part, Johnson has looked great so far this season. He hasn't received a ton of work so far, but he has looked explosive on his touches and has firmly secured the No. 2 role in this backfield. I could easily see 8-10 carries for Johnson in a game that the Chiefs control from the start, which should make 35+ rushing yards a very realistic outcome.

Brock Bowers higher than 79.5 receiving yards

All signs point to Brock Bowers returning to the field this week, and I want to bet on him being installed as the top receiving weapon in this offense right away. The Raiders have gotten off to a 2-0 start so I have to assume they aren't rushing Brock Bowers back and he is 100% ready to go. We haven't seen him in the Klint Kubiak offense yet, but I'm excited for what that could look like and the creative ways he will be deployed.

It also helps that both the Raiders and Saints are among the more uptempo offenses in the NFL, so we should see plenty of plays and pass attempts in this one. Bowers should immediately return to a 25+% target share in a game where Kirk Cousins drops back a lot. Double-digit targets for Bowers are on the table. I also expect that he will be used in a downfield role, which means he only needs to connect on one big play to put an 80+-yard receiving game within reach.