Underdog Pick 'Em Selections For Week 7: Go High On Tucker Kraft

My picks went 2-2 in Week 6 with Bryce Young higher passing yards and Kayshon Boutte lower receiving yards hitting. On the other side, Rhamondre Stevenson didn't catch a single pass and Christian Watson failed to score a first-half TD. When I made the Stevenson pick I thought TreVeyon Henderson would be out, so I would have reconsidered that pick if I had known. Not a bad week, but not the big hit that I was hoping for. Time to dive into Week 7 and find some winners.

If you’re new to this article, every week I will be bringing you my favorite picks on Underdog. I will start by highlighting three of the best picks for the week based on the line vs. fantasy football projections. I will also give you a couple of my favorite longshot selections for the week that you can include to juice your pick 'em payouts. Now that we have six weeks of data to look at, I will also be incorporating position-level matchup information, particularly our DvP tool to identify the most advantageous matchups.

One quick thing to note before diving in is that I live in an Underdog Champions state, which means that my payouts may look slightly different than they would for someone who lives in a standard pick 'em state, but the differences should be minimal.

Week 7 Underdog Pick 'em Selections

Tucker Kraft higher than 49.5 receiving yards

The Packers passing game has been clicking and the Detroit Lions defense is historically bad against TEs. That combination makes me like Tucker Kraft in all fantasy formats this weekend. In our Fantasy Life DvP tool, the Lions are giving up a +45.1 yardage boost to opposing TEs. That is nearly twice as big of a boost as the second-worst defense against the position.

Jordan Love is averaging 280 passing yards per game this season and Kraft has recorded his three best Utilization Scores of the season in the last three weeks. Green Bay should feature him as one of their top receiving weapons in a game that has shootout potential. The early game total is 53.5 points and these are two offenses that can create explosive plays so I expect to see plenty of back and forth.

Kraft does not have a particularly deep aDOT, but his 157 yards after the catch are the fourth most at the TE position and he led all TEs in YAC per reception in 2025. He is capable of creating big plays with the ball in his hands and the recent deep passing success to Matthew Golden and Christian Watson should continue to open up opportunities for Kraft underneath.

Brock Purdy higher than 242.5 passing yards

Brock Purdy deserves to be firmly in the MVP discussion with how he has played so far this season. His 14 passing TDs are tied for the league lead and he has the San Francisco offense humming despite all their injuries. He is right on the heels of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in efficiency and leads all QBs in success rate.

This week Purdy and co. will face an Atlanta defense that is giving up the fourth most passing yards per game. Our fantasy football projections have Purdy for 250 passing yards this week, so there is decent value in this line. The real question is whether the Atlanta offense can play well enough to force the 49ers to remain aggressive throughout this game. If they can do that, Purdy has a very good shot to beat this line. Michael Penix has been playing well enough and Atlanta is at home, so I expect Atlanta to put up enough of a fight to make that happen.

The biggest risk here is that Mike Evans status is up in the air after he left their last game early. Shanahan and Purdy have proven they can make a passing game work with virtually anyone at WR, but if you think Evans isn't going to play it could be smart to wait and see if this line comes down. Alternatively, you could try to play this passing game through the George Kittle receiving line (which I also like). However you prefer to get exposure, I like being on the 49ers’ passing game in this matchup.

Jaylen Warren higher than 59.5 rushing yards

The New Orleans Saints are a major run funnel, ranking dead last in rush EPA per play allowed and rushing success rate allowed. The Steelers have gone with a pass-heavy offense this year, but they are running enough plays that there is still a decent amount of rushing volume to go around. Even with Rico Dowdle active last week, Jaylen Warren still handled 14 rush attempts against Tampa Bay.

The Bucs are one of the better rush defenses in the NFL and the Steelers were trailing for most of that game, so I found it encouraging to see them stick with the run even if it didn't lead to a big yardage week for Warren. Now facing a much softer run defense I expect Warren to bounce back with a much more efficient performance. Prior to last week, Warren had averaged 6.6 yards per attempt on 49 carries in his last three games. I don't expect quite that same level of volume or efficiency, but he doesn't need to be anywhere near that to easily go over this rushing line.

Week 7 Underdog Pick 'em Longshot

Jahmyr Gibbs higher than 1.5 TDs

Let's go back to this Lions vs Packers game for my longshot. We should see plenty of points in this game and there is no better bet to find the end zone than Jahmyr Gibbs. He already has 9 TDs in just five games so him scoring 2 TDs is closer to average than an outlier.

The Packers have not been effective at stopping the run, as they rank 27th in rush EPA allowed, 25th in rushing success rate allowed and have the second highest rushing TD boost in our DvP tool. This is an important divisional game with two high-powered offenses. I expect it to be close throughout the game so both teams are going to stay aggressive throughout.

When the Lions are close to the goal line, they have been willing to lean on Gibbs. His 11 carries inside the five yard line are tied for third most in the NFL. He's converted 6 of those into TDs, and I expect him to get multiple opportunities to add to that total in this game.