2023 Dynasty Stock Watch
Dynasty Stock Up
Kadarius Toney
There’s no question that Kadarius Toney is a human joystick.
But what do you get when you combine Toney’s skill set with the prowess of an Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense?
A fantasy cheat code with league-winning upside.
However, health is the only valid concern. Toney has appeared in just 55% of possible games. But draft capital, talent, (small) sample size, and opportunity are all boxes checked in his favor.
Heading into Conference Championship Weekend, Dwain McFarland made the case for Toney with an exceptional, data-driven argument.
The second-year WR demonstrated an elite ability to demand targets as a rookie on limited routes, and that trend has continued in year two with an elite 26% TPRR.
Kansas City lost their No. 1 wideout in JuJu Smith-Schuster (78 receptions and 933 yards on 101 targets). Overall, they sit third in available targets (257) and fifth in available target share (41.8%).
Could Toney assume a larger role and earn targets at an elite clip? I’m willing to take that chance at his current dynasty price of WR41 on KTC. That’s a steal for the Chiefs' dynamic, 24-year-old WR1.
Toney could be fool's gold for fantasy managers. It’s possible. But like so many others chasing the allure of the Chiefs offense, I’m ready to get hurt again.
You can start drafting Toney today on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 for doing so. Claim your offer below and start drafting today!
Garrett Wilson
I’m of the mindset that you should never be afraid to pay up for good players.
Too often, people tout “buying low” without recognizing one important factor: value doesn’t score fantasy points, good players score fantasy points.
Yes, I know it’s important to find those nuanced edges and secure value, but “buying high” is a great way to buck the trend and bolster your squad.
Enter Garrett Wilson.
As a rookie, it truly was a tale of two seasons.
Mercifully, we appear to be past the Zach Wilson era in New York. On the other hand, the Jets are neck-deep in the Aaron Rodgers saga..sweepstakes–drama (depending on who you ask).
Regardless of how you feel, Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer who can still provide elite fantasy production.
KTC has Wilson ranked as the dynasty WR4. Only Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb are ahead of him. If we assume Rodgers signs, it’s tough to find an argument against Wilson at No. 4.
Dwain McFarland made an interesting note this season:
"Since 2011, only four rookie WRs have eclipsed an 80.0 PFF receiving grade and a 22% target share:
- 2014: Odell Beckham Jr. (91.2, 28% adjusted)
- 2014: Mike Evans (84.0, 23%)
- 2020: Justin Jefferson (90.5, 23%)
- 2021: Ja’Marr Chase (84.0, 22%)"
Wilson finished the season with an 85.9 PFF receiving grade (WR9) and a 24.5% target share. That puts him in incredible company.
The bottom line is wherever you have Wilson ranked, you might be too low.
Trey McBride
Trey McBride entered the league in 2022 with plenty of credentials.
He was the first TE drafted (55th overall), won the 2021 Mackey Award, led all TEs with 1,121 receiving yards, and earned first-team All-American honors.
His 1,121 yards were the fourth-most by a tight end in a single season in the FBS since 1996.
Even with the accolades, it takes time for rookie TEs to develop. McBride played second fiddle to a longtime veteran for the first half of the season but took advantage of opportunities when they arose.
Starting TE Zach Ertz suffered a torn ACL & MCL in Week 10. He’s hopeful to be ready for Week 1, but his status remains in question.
In seven games without Ertz, McBride posted modest per-game numbers.
- 5 targets
- 3.5 receptions
- 33 receiving yards
- 7.7 PPR
More importantly, he saw his snap count jump from 33 snaps per game (Weeks 1-9) to 62 (Weeks 10-18). It’s worth noting that Kyler Murray essentially missed Weeks 14-18 after tearing his ACL, and he’s expected to miss the beginning of the season. But potential volume helps balance out McBride’s potential drop in QB play.
Depending on how you feel about vacated targets, the Cardinals are projected to have plenty. They lost Eno Benjamin (33) and A.J. Green (47) and are expected to trade/release DeAndre Hopkins (96).
There’s room in this offense for McBride to grow into a larger role.
Ertz has two years remaining on his three-year / $31,650,000 contract. However, the team has an out after the 2023 season. If Ertz isn’t healthy or ineffective, we could see McBride start to take that coveted leap.
KTC has McBride ranked as the dynasty TE17. That’s incredible value for an ascending talent on an offense that I project to be better moving forward. Get in on McBride while feelings about Arizona’s offense keep his price depressed.
Looking to target McBride in your dynasty league? You can trade for him on Sleeper Fantasy and also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 for their Over/Under game by signing up with a new account below.
Dynasty Stock Down
Tyler Allgeier
Listen, it’s not you, Tyler Allgeier. It’s your (lack of) draft capital.
Allgeier topped 200 carries and 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie. What’s not to like?
The Falcons drafting him on Day 3.
It’s easy to chase last year's production, but we must keep historical context in mind. Day 3 RBs rarely find success in the NFL. When they are successful, they provide the perfect opportunity for dynasty managers to cash out.
KTC has Allgeier ranked as the dynasty RB27. That’s simply too high for a fifth-round pick who only beat out a depleted backfield on a bad team.
Eliot Crist published a 2023 NFL Mock Draft with the Falcons selecting none other than RB Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall.
“Robinson is a generational prospect with little to no holes in his game, and the Falcons run first mentality would be a dream fantasy landing spot. The Falcons threw the ball 13.1% below expectations last season, the second-lowest PROE in football…The Falcons have dropped from +3300 to +650 to be the landing spot for Robinson.”
Even if Atlanta doesn’t draft Robinson, they have Picks 44 & 75 in the first two days. Any addition to the backfield would tank Allgeier’s value, given his reliance on volume.
A savvy dynasty manager would seek to flip Allgeier before the NFL Draft. History suggests his value has already peaked.
Nick Chubb
Let’s have some fun and spice things up.
Even if their roster is in the thick of a playoff hunt, dynasty managers should consider offloading Nick Chubb while the appeal is still there.
Chubb has been the model of consistency his entire career. Over the last four seasons, Chubb has averaged:
- 254 carries
- 1,336 rushing yards
- 10 rushing TDs
Despite being what many consider to be the best pure rusher in the league, his biggest knock is his lack of receiving production. He’s topped 30 receptions just once (2019) and has never scored more than twice through the air in a season.
Besides the lack of pass-catching, Chubb is coming off a year where he set or tied career marks in several categories, including rushing attempts (302), rushing yards (1,525), and rushing TDs (12).
The Browns leaned heavily on Chubb in 2022 as they worked to get Deshaun Watson back on the field. With the team fully invested in their QB, they added Elijah Moore to an offense with Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku. Watson and co. should be more effective through the air, which could limit backfield opportunities.
Chubb is also at the age where, historically, top-end RBs start to fall off. I’d rather be a year early than be left holding the bag.
KTC has Chubb ranked as the dynasty RB15. I don’t mind the price, but he’s at an age where I would prefer cashing out while he still has value. When the cliff comes for RBs, don’t let your team go down with them.
