Drake Maye Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Drake Maye Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 151 overall (QB22), rookie QB3
Drake Maye arrived at North Carolina as a five-star recruit, and he was heralded as the next big thing for a football program that has recently seen Mitchell Trubisky and Sam Howell go on to become starting QBs in the NFL.
Obviously, neither Trubisky or Howell has panned out to date, but it’s hard not to be enamored with Maye’s ability to buck the trend after his three strong seasons in Charlotte.
Maye's 2022 campaign (4,321 pass yards and 38 TDs) was a bit more prolific than his encore in 2023 (3,608 yards and 24 TDs). But maybe that’s just life after having lost his top two WRs to the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green) and having to deal with a pretty meh offensive line and sore ankle last season.
In all seriousness, Maye’s supporting cast last year was the worst among the current top six QBs in the 2024 class, and there was a night-and-day difference when watching his 2022 pass-catchers compared to the ones he had to work with in 2023.
Still, even the snap back to reality (ope, there goes gravity) wasn’t enough to stop Maye from scoring highest in overall Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade over the past two seasons even if his more traditional efficiency metrics weren’t quite as stellar.
Among 89 Power-5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks from 2022 to 2023, here's how Maye ranked:
- PFF pass grade: 91.6 (No. 1)
- Passer rating: 105.4 (No. 25)
- Yards per attempt: 8.4 (No. 26)
- Adjusted completion rate: 75.3% (No. 24)
9-5 and 8-5 records in 2022 and 2023 reflect the reality that Maye didn’t exactly turn this UNC program into a world-beater, but like Caleb Williams, there was a stark contrast between these two QBs' defenses and those of the rest of the top QBs in this rookie class.
The two-time team captain leaves North Carolina as a player projected to go off the board within the first few overall picks of the 2024 NFL Draft. Let’s dive into why.
Note: I watched the all-22 copies of the 2022 Notre Dame, 2023 Syracuse, 2023 Duke, 2023 Clemson, and 2023 NC State games specifically in preparation for this article.
Drake Maye Pros and Cons
Pros
Ability to thrive within the pocket
At his best, Maye demonstrates the ability to absolutely disintegrate defenses from the friendly confines of the pocket. He has the requisite size at 6’4 and 223 lbs. as well as the mobility to navigate a muddled situation.
Maye also flashed a decent dose of baby Big Ben-esque pump fake goodness. With all those tools, his top-end results were nothing short of spectacular.
PFF’s excellent 2024 draft guide includes “stable metrics” for every QB. Their stable metrics are defined as ones that tend to be more predictive of future success than unstable metrics.
The most stable facets of QB play are those with the biggest sample sizes even though they intuitively seem “easier.” It's no surprise that Maye’s performance in the five corresponding stable metrics were phenomenal:
- No pressure grade: 99th percentile
- Early-down grade: 96th
- No play-action grade: 100th
- Negative play % grade: 91st
- Passes past the sticks grade: 100th
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler notes:
“With his arm strength and pacing, Maye put a full inventory of throws on tape and showed he can comfortably operate with timing from the pocket. He is a quick-reaction athlete who makes off-schedule plays as a scrambler and is able to rip throws from different platforms.”
Maye's ability to also create off-schedule goodness brings us to our next pro.
Forces defenses to account for every square inch of the field
Maye can be a bit of a wild child at times. "Target version of Josh Allen” “85% of Josh Allen” are two comps that came to my mind while watching his film, which is high praise indeed.
This is a guy who's willing to occasionally attempt a left-handed pass, an ill-advised hurdle, or even a mid-play lateral. Maye's tape was a lot of fun to watch!
The aforementioned arm talent combined with his passable dual-threat ability (allegedly runs in the 4.6 range) has also led to many comparisons to Justin Herbert. At Maye's best, I could see the comparison. However, his occasional mental lapses and constant chase to make the big play make me think that the better comp might be “Herbert after shotgunning a two-liter of Mountain Dew before every game”.
While it can be frustrating to see Maye miss some "gimme" plays at times, chicks dig the long ball, and few QBs were better at throwing downfield than the Tar Heels’ all-time single-season passing leader. When passing 20-plus yards downfield, here's how Maye ranked among 76 qualifying Power-5 QBs from 2022 to 2023:
- PFF pass grade: 98.9 (No. 1)
- Passer rating: 114.8 (No. 12)
- Adjusted completion rate: 54.1% (No. 4)
- Yards per attempt: 16.4 (No. 13)
Nov 25, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass against North Carolina State Wolfpack linebacker Caden Fordham during the first half at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
I thought that legendary NFL analyst Lance Zierlein did a good job describing this part of the Maye experience:
“He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn’t have attempted. The gunslinger mentality creates a fearlessness that can turn into interceptions, but it will also allow him to win in tight windows and make splash throws that get crowds (and evaluators) on their feet.”
Don’t expect Maye to resemble the current versions of Allen or Herbert anytime soon – if ever – but his combination of arm talent and dual-threat ability should force defenses to account for virtually every blade of grass on the football field from Day 1.
Maye's ability to threaten the entire field gives him incredible potential for whichever NFL team ends up drafting him, even if it might take a few years for him to turn into a true franchise QB.
Cons
Decision-making leaves a bit to be desired at times
The downside to having all that aforementioned arm talent and confidence is that Maye will occasionally attempt “heat check” throws that almost seem arrogant at first glance.
North Carolina’s dismal defense led to many shootout game scripts that necessitated this sort of ultra-aggressive mindset. Even so, just realize that there are some pretty horrible INTs on Maye's tape from the last two seasons.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect here is Maye’s performance under pressure. His 18.9% pressure-to-sack (P2S) rate was below-average among relevant recent QB prospects, and unlike Caleb Williams's profile, things didn’t improve by leaps and bounds when looking at the difference in P2S on 1st and 2nd-downs compared to money downs.
Nov 18, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass to wide receiver J.J. Jones (not pictured) for a touchdown against Clemson Tigers defensive tackle Tyler Davis (13) during the first quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
At times, no QB was better with scary pass-rushers breathing down their neck last year, as there are certainly plenty of flashes of Maye performing just fine under pressure.
Still, his numbers under duress admittedly fall short relative to this year’s other top prospects at the QB position. Here's how Maye ranked among the other top 2024 rookies over the last two years when under pressure:
- Maye: 6.6 YPA, 44% completion rate, 18:9 TD:INT ratio
- Caleb Williams: 8 YPA, 49.4% completion rate, 22:4 TD:INT ratio
- Jayden Daniels: 8.3 YPA, 51.3% completion rate, 9:0 TD:INT ratio
- J.J. McCarthy: 8.2 YPA, 56.7% completion rate, 13:4 TD:INT ratio
- Michael Penix: 6.9 YPA, 39.2% completion rate, 12:7 TD:INT ratio
- Bo Nix: 8.2 YPA, 57.3% completion rate, 15:1 TD:INT ratio
The root cause for Maye's struggles under pressure could actually come down to this next issue…
Mechanics could use some work
Respected draft pundits have criticized both Maye’s inefficient throwing motion as well as his problematic footwork when referencing why he’ll occasionally miss open receivers and struggle under pressure.
I’m far from an expert on QB mechanics, but it's important to remember that Maye is still just 21 years old! Holding him to the same standard as Nix (24), Penix (23), or Daniels (23) doesn’t exactly seem fair considering how much longer they've had to fix correctable issues such as these.
That said, Maye will likely need good coaching wherever he ends up to help improve his throwing motion and footwork.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Drake Maye
Some of the NFL Draft's smartest pundits believe that Maye can be deserving of the No. 1 overall pick over Caleb Williams. This includes Yahoo’s Nate Tice, who concluded his excellent breakdown with this summary:
“Maye is the complete package at quarterback. His ability to throw or run for explosive plays, within and outside the confines of the position, all while avoiding an overwhelming amount of negative plays, are the prerequisites for elite modern QB play.”
While I’m not quite ready to crown Maye over Williams, I will say that I agree with the notion that Maye is closer to being the No. 1 QB prospect in this class than he is to being the No. 3 prospect.
It's easy to see why. Maye is a young, big, athletic, and productive signal-caller whose biggest concern (occasionally reckless decision-making) is at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that his porous defense constantly thrust him into shootouts without many (any) reliable pass-catchers.
As for the fantasy perspective, don’t underestimate Maye’s ability to produce fantasy points as soon as he starts in the NFL. In addition to the arm talent and downfield passing, Maye has rushing ability that's comparable to the other top QBs outside of Daniels when removing yards lost from sacks. Here are the fantasy points per game from only rushing production in 2022 to 2023:
- Jayden Daniels (13.8)
- Drake Maye (9.4)
- Caleb Williams (8.6)
- Bo Nix (7.3)
- J.J. McCarthy (4.2)
- Michael Penix (2.2)
Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) scores a touchdown in the second overtime as Duke Blue Devils cornerback Al Blades Jr. (7) and defensive tackle Ja'Mion Franklin (5) defend at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
For reference, Maye finds himself reasonably close to guys like Anthony Richardson (10.4) and Justin Fields (9.6) while Daniels is the only QB within earshot of what Lamar Jackson (23.0) pulled off during his final two seasons at Louisville.
It’s curious why Maye (QB22, pick 151) currently has such a lower Underdog ADP than Williams (QB14, 110) and Daniels (130, QB18) considering that they all project as top-three overall picks based on recent mock drafts.
While the potential landing spot in New England might not be ideal for 2024 fantasy purposes, some recent murmurs have speculated that the Vikings could trade up for Maye. His current ADP seems depressed based on mocks to the Patriots, so there could be value in drafting Maye right now at ADP in best ball prior to the NFL Draft.
Ultimately, even though Daniels offers higher immediate fantasy ceiling due to his rushing upside, I’m more confident in Maye’s ability to thrive as a long-term NFL starter. Because of that, while I understand why Maye's best ball ADP for 2024 is currently behind that of Daniels, I'd still look to prioritize Maye over Daniels in dynasty formats.
