Dynasty Breakout Watch.
Dynasty managers don’t know the meaning of “offseason,” and here at Fantasy Life, neither do we. With the 2023 season behind us and the vast expanse of the offseason ahead, let’s identify some potential breakout candidates that dynasty managers should be keeping tabs on in the weeks and months to come.
Kyler Murray, QB - Cardinals
After a trio of top-10 finishes to begin his career, injuries have plagued Kyler Murray. He’s appeared in just 11 and 8 games respectively over the last two years, and his dynasty value now sits at QB11.
There’s ample reason to be in on Murray at that price in dynasty formats.
First, he’ll be another year removed from his ACL injury, and he was already starting to regain his form down the stretch this year. In the eight games he played, he finished as a top-13 option five times and never finished outside the top 20.
What really stands out to me is the 13% designed rushing attempt rate. That boosts his value and provides both a safer floor and higher ceiling each week. That designed rush rate is also in line with previous years.
- 2020 - 19%
- 2021 - 15%
- 2022 - 11%
If Murray continues to utilize his legs as a key component of his on-field production, that will only mean good things for fantasy managers.
Nov 26, 2023; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws a pass to running back Michael Carter (22) against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-Arizona Republic
Another variable working in favor of Murray is the plethora of draft capital the team has heading into the 2024 NFL Draft. They currently have 11 picks. Here are some of the more notable ones:
- No. 4 Overall
- No. 27 Overall
- One 2nd Round Pick
- Three 3rd Round Picks
Having six picks in the first two days gives them a ton of ammo/options to address their various needs. Our own Matthew Freedman has the Cardinals selecting WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 and EDGE Jared Verse at No. 27 in his latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft.
Adding Harrison would immediately give Murray a bonafide WR1. The dynasty community is already staggeringly high on the incoming rookie as he’s ranked at WR5 and No. 12 overall in Superflex rankings. With veteran Marquise Brown slated to depart in free agency, the need at the WR position is high.
Toss in Trey McBride who looks like a true TE1 and the Cardinals could have a strong pass-catching duo for their still-only-26-years-old signal caller. Dynasty managers have the chance to get a locked-in QB1 at his lowest price; they shouldn’t wait any longer.
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Jameson Williams, WR - Lions
A lost rookie season and a suspension-reduced sophomore season have prevented Jameson Williams from living up to the hype (and draft capital). However, the stars are starting to align for the long-coveted third-year breakout.
After a bye week in Week 10, Williams started to find a more consistent role.
However, let’s not kid ourselves. An 8% target share is laughable for a former first-round draft pick. His TPRR (15%) and air yards (17%) aren’t much better. But sometimes when projecting a breakout candidate, the starting point can be tough to look at.
Besides just taking another step in his development as a professional football player, there are some team environment aspects that could pave the way for Williams heading into 2024.
Both Josh Reynolds and Donovan Peoples-Jones are free agents. They may not sound like pivotal names, but last season they accounted for:
- 71 targets
- 45 receptions
- 666 receiving yards
- 5 TDs
Reynolds also technically served as the WR2 for the Lions. However, it was Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie TE sensation Sam LaPorta who were the true top options in the passing game.
If Williams can carve out even a portion of that workload/production, he’ll certainly be worth more than the dynasty WR43 ranking he currently carries. He’s still only 22 years old and has immense on-field talent. If the Lions don’t add any significant wideout via draft or free agency, Williams has a bright future ahead of him.
George Pickens, WR - Steelers
When looking at offseason moves to make, it’s important to not just skim the box score to evaluate how a player performed. On paper, George Pickens has played well in his first two years. He’s never missed a game and has played well when given the opportunity.
However, a closer look at the numbers paints a bit of a different story.
In 17 games this last year, Pickens topped 15 PPR just five times. Conversely, he finished with less than 10 PPR a whopping 10 times. That means in over 58% of his games he was putting up single-digit points.
That just isn’t going to cut it for fantasy managers. However, this is why I think now is the time to pay attention, lean into the uncertainty, and buy.
By now, the Steelers HAVE to know that Kenny Pickett just isn’t it. He’s thrown just 13 TDs in 25 career games. However, here’s some bad news. Unfortunately for everyone except Pickett, it sounds like Pittsburgh may give him another shot at keeping his job. A former NFL general manager said he believes the team is going all in on Pickett.
That could mean a lot of things for someone like Pickens. He’s immensely talented and has demonstrated that tantalizing upside fantasy managers crave, but if Pickett doesn’t pan out, we could be stuck with the big “what if Pickens had a good QB” question.
Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) makes a catch in the first half against the Buffalo Bills in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Thankfully, even with Pickett under center for most of the last season, we did see flashes of Pickens’ ceiling on several occasions.
Dwain McFarland noted as much in his Utilization Report ahead of Week 6:
With Diontae Johnson out of the lineup, we have seen the role for Pickens broaden.
Only 13% of Pickens' targets have come on looks 20-plus yards downfield in 2023. That number was an astounding 36% last year. Pickens is running more slants, crossers and posts while his go routes are down from 38% to 29%.
Since Johnson exited the lineup in Week 1, Pickens has been a target magnet.
The second-year WR leads the Steelers in targets against zone (23%) and man coverage (30%) per PFF data. And when he gets his opportunities, he is making the most of them. Of WRs with at least 40 targets, only Tyreek Hill averages more yards per catch (18.1) than Pickens (17.9).
As mentioned, the talent is there. Let’s hope that either A) Pickett turns it around or B) whoever is under center for Pittsburgh next year can consistently find Pickens downfield. Either way, I think Pickens is a decent bet with his dynasty WR29 price tag.
Michael Mayer, TE - Raiders
Remember when we used to temper our expectations for rookie TEs? Then Sam LaPorta had to go and ruin our expectations for every prospect moving forward.
Let’s not kid ourselves; the TE position still requires a significant learning curve and what LaPorta did was likely the exception as opposed to the new norm.
While fellow rookie Michael Mayer disappointed in 2023, there’s no reason to give up on him yet, and his dynasty ADP of TE12 could be the perfect opportunity to get back on the train.
Even before this past season, the Fantasy Life team wrote more than a few words on Mayer. He slotted in at No. 2 in our Rookie TE Model, but we only saw a few flashes of his talent on the field.
Ian Hartitz broke down Mayer’s profile last spring and noted how “Baby Gronk” could be a problem in the open field. If defenders weren’t careful, they got beat down and run over.
Hartitz also noted how Mayer improved year-over-year and how he could just be scratching the surface of his potential.
- 2020: 71 PFF grade, 42-450-2, 1.39 yards per route run, 18% targets per route run
- 2021: 80.6 PFF grade, 71-840-7, 1.99 yards per route run, 23% targets per route run
- 2022: 92.5 PFF grade, 67-809-9, 2.44 yards per route run, 31% targets per route run
Moving into Year 2, his target-earning ability should make him a contributor more often than not. While his overall athletic testing numbers don’t wow you, his short-area quickness, YAC prowess, and ability to line up all over the field should make him a valuable fantasy asset.
When Dwain McFarland broke down his Super Model Tiers, he highlighted this about Mayer:
Mayer's target share increased every season in college (from 18% to 24% to 36%), and he had a career average of 24% TPRR. Over his career, he accounted for 28% of the Irish’s TDs in games where he laced up the cleats…His 60th-percentile career YPRR (1.95) and 65th-percentile best YPRR (2.33) are second behind only Dalton Kincaid among Power Five TE prospects in the 2023 class.
While all of those preseason blurbs were promising and exciting, it didn’t pan out in Year 1. Unfortunately, we don’t have much to go on from Mayer’s rookie season.
His overall production wasn’t great (27/304/2) and his underlying metrics weren’t promising either. Much of what we are hoping for from Mayer in Year 2 is projection based on how long it can take TEs to develop at this level and how talented he was in college.
Like the Steelers, the Raiders have some figuring out to do at QB and their wideouts are aging. Mayer could become the focal point for a new signal caller moving forward. His price will likely never be lower if he takes even a small step forward this upcoming season.
