NFL Rookie Super Model Tiers: TEs
NFL Rookie Super Model Tiers: TEs
With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, we are launching our Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model for TEs.
Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that tie to fantasy production in the NFL. We tested several advanced data metrics to see how they correlated with fantasy points and integrated the top options into our model.
While this limits our college data set to prospects since 2017, our model is also rooted in the well-established metrics identified by the dynasty community that date further back.
Of course, this combination doesn’t make our model perfect (no model is perfect), but we think it does make it pretty super, and we can’t wait to watch it grow as we gather more data.
Given a smaller sample size, the TE model isn’t as strong as for WRs. However, several metrics correlated with future fantasy production can help us gain insights into the 2023 prospect pool.
Data and metrics utilized:
- Projected draft capital (Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database)
- Career and best-season yards per route run (YPRR)
- Career and best-season yards per team passing attempt (YPTPA)
- Career explosive target rate (15-plus yard reception)
- Age and 20% dominator breakout age (yards market share + TD market share divided by two)
Tier 1
Dalton Kincaid | Utah | 6’4 and 246 lbs.
- Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 90th percentile
- Underdog ADP: TE23, Round 17
- Rookie Rank: TE3, No. 26 overall (Per Fantasy Pros Rookie Rankings)
Over the last two seasons, the only TE who has performed better against Power Five competition than Dalton Kincaid has been Georgia TE Brock Bowers. Per PFF data, Kincaid has logged a 2.29 YPRR on his 1,134 yards and 12 TDs against Power Five opponents over that span.
There have been rumors that Kincaid could slip out of the first round of the NFL Draft after he skipped the NFL Combine and Utah's pro day due to a small back fracture he suffered at the end of last season. However, the latest mock draft data still suggests that Kincaid will have late-first or early-second round draft capital.
The model loves Kincaid thanks to his 74th-percentile career YPRR (2.32) and 86th-percentile best YPRR (3.00). Since 2017, after factoring in NFL Draft capital, these two metrics have correlated the most strongly to future fantasy production.
When you pair those YPRR metrics with Kincaid's 10.6 yard aDOT and 30% explosive target rate, which ranks in the 82nd percentile, his profile is that of a TE who can turn targets into elite production.
Kincaid can also work all three levels of the field, as almost 15% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield, which was 5% higher than the NCAA average for TEs with at least 200 routes run.
In addition, Kincaid made strides as a playmaker in his final season at Utah, forcing 16 missed tackles. His lower body strength appeared stronger last year, and he forced his way through arm tackles more regularly.
On top of his ability to break tackles, Kincaid also has the wiggle to make the first defender miss on underneath targets. He might be a finesse player, but Kincaid knows how to get low and push for extra yards as well.
NFL talent evaluators also often talk about Kincaid’s sticky hands, and the data agrees. He had the lowest drop rate (2.1%) of any TE with at least 50 targets over the last two seasons against Power Five opponents.
On film, he rarely uses his body to catch the ball. Kincaid shows great concentration working the sideline and middle of the field with defenders in close proximity or initiating contact. He is also exceptional at tracking the ball on downfield throws.
Kincaid will be 23.9 years old when the 2023 NFL season starts, making him one of the older rookies in the class. However, he got a late start in his football career, as he didn't play at the high school level until his senior year.
In college, Kincaid played his first two seasons as a walk-on at the University of San Diego, where he was an FCS All-American, before Utah offered him a scholarship in 2020.
Kincaid looks like a late-bloomer on paper due to his age and five-year collegiate career, but he is still young in terms of football experience. It's also important to remember that George Kittle and Dallas Goedert were both around the same age as Kincaid entering the NFL, so Kincaid's age shouldn't be a huge knock on his profile.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has Kincaid graded as the No. 2 option in this TE class and compares him to Zach Ertz.
In our model, Kincaid's closest comps are Goedert and Gerald Everett. Our data sample is limited, but since the 2017 class, 75% of the TEs prospects who graded above the 85th percentile have enjoyed a top-12 fantasy finish in their first three seasons.
While the TE learning curve is real, Kincaid is currently underpriced in best ball and dynasty formats. He shouldn’t be going so far behind Michael Mayer considering how closely the two grade out as Tier 1 TE prospects.
Michael Mayer | Notre Dame | 6’4 1/2 and 249 lbs.
- Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 86th percentile
- Underdog ADP: TE18, Round 15
- Rookie Rank: TE1, No. 12 overall
Mayer is the all-time leader for receptions, receiving yards, and TDs by a TE for Notre Dame. He earned a starting role as a freshman, broke out with a 25% dominator as a sophomore, and delivered a sparkling 37% dominator rating as a junior last year.
Before the 2022 season, Mayer’s expected draft capital was in the mid-first round, but that has recently fallen in late-first-round territory after subpar testing at the NFL Combine.
Despite the concerns, Mayer appears to be a safe bet to earn first-round capital, and he was an absolute target magnet in South Bend.
Mayer's target share increased every season in college (from 18% to 24% to 36%), and he had a career average of 24% TPRR. Over his career, he accounted for 28% of the Irish’s TDs in games where he laced up the cleats.
His 60th-percentile career YPRR (1.95) and 65th-percentile best YPRR (2.33) are second behind only Kincaid among Power Five TE prospects in the 2023 class.
However, while Mayer has flashed his elite ability to demand targets, he had a lower career aDOT and explosive play rate than Kincaid. Mayer’s 39th-percentile career aDOT (8.0) and 51st-percentile explosive target rate (22%) align with his lackluster performance at the NFL Combine.
Mayer's 4.9 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R) was also slightly below average, as NCAA TEs with at least 200 routes run and an aDOT between 7.0 and 9.0 yards have averaged 5.4 YAC/R since 2014.
The scouting community does consider Mayer ready for in-line TE responsibilities, though, which is a positive. We have seen TEs constrained to a receiving profile struggle to garner enough playing time when teams can’t use them in the slot (i.e., Mike Gesicki and Gerald Everett).
The closest comp for Mayer in our Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model is T.J. Hockenson.
Mayer's current best ball ADP seems reasonable if you want exposure, and he's a fine pick in the second round of rookie drafts, or even the late-first round. While Kincaid’s profile suggests a higher potential ceiling, Mayer has the safest floor among the 2023 TE prospects.
You can start drafting Mayer on Underdog Fantasy before the draft and take advantage of a 100% deposit match of up to $100 by signing up for Underdog Fantasy below.
Tier 2
Darnell Washington | Georgia | 6’7 and 264 lbs.
- Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 74th percentile
- Underdog ADP: TE31, late rounds
- Rookie Rank: TE2, No. 22 overall
Despite having been a top-25 recruit in the nation, Darnell Washington played behind all-world TE Brock Bowers at Georgia.
Washington's career-high route participation (50%) came in his junior season, when he delivered 454 receiving yards and two TDs on 28 receptions. The big-bodied TE only had 320 career receiving yards and three TDs over his first two college seasons.
However, Washington's expected draft capital has exploded during the pre-NFL Draft process, as he dominated at the NFL Combine by posting a top-14 Relative Athletic Score (RAS) since 1987.
Thanks to his freakish athletic traits, Washington is expected to be an early Day 2 pick. Honestly, I didn’t expect Washington to grade this high in our model, and I still prefer Sam LaPorta over him in a vacuum.
Why, you ask?
It's because Washington has never been a target-earner, even on a per-route basis, which helps us neutralize the lack of playing time. Even his career-high 17% TPRR this past season was far below the average 24% TPRR we want to see for TE prospects who can produce top-12 fantasy finishes at the NFL level.
Washington’s 47th-percentile career YPRR (1.60) and 40th-percentile best-season YPRR (1.77) also don’t help his score in the model. However, his 34% career explosive target rate ranks No. 1 in our data set dating back to the 2017 class, and his career aDOT (11.7) ranks in the 80th percentile.
Additionally, despite low target volume and middling YPRR metrics, Washington created mismatches when given the opportunity.
While he isn’t the most crisp route-runner, Washington can get open against zone looks. He can also win contested one-on-one situations thanks to his massive size advantage, so he could be a significant weapon in the red zone even as a rookie.
Those factors, along with Washington's expected draft capital, catapult him into the same tier as LaPorta.
While the sample is small, Washington's YAC created is also extremely impressive given his high aDOT. His YAC career average of 7.6 yards is well above the NCAA average of 5.1 for TEs with an aDOT of 11-plus yards.
Defenders tend to bounce off of Washington once he's on the move, and he forced a missed tackle on an eye-popping 31% of his collegiate receptions. He's a fun player to watch with the ball in his hands, and you can see why scouts love his ceiling.
According to scouts, the former Bulldog has massive upside as a blocker at the next level as well, which could help him eventually secure an every-down role. Washington has a path to success at the NFL level without ever becoming a high-end receiver, and Lance Zierlein even wondered if he could play tackle at some point.
Ultimately, Washington is a boom-or-bust prospect. Fantasy GMs are hoping that he can eventually earn targets at a higher rate, but Washington will only be 22 years old when the 2023 NFL season starts. If he can grow as a receiver, the sky's the limit given Washington's ability to stretch the field and make explosive plays.
Sam LaPorta | Iowa | 6’3 and 245 lbs.
- Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 72nd percentile
- Underdog ADP: TE39, late rounds
- Rookie Rank: TE4, No. 29 overall
Sam LaPorta logged 111 receptions for 1,318 yards and four TDs over his final two seasons even on a bad offense at the TE factory known as Iowa. While he was in the third-round conversation in February, his expected NFL Draft capital has recently surged into the second round.
While Washington, Luke Musgrave, and Zack Kuntz stole the limelight at the NFL Combine, LaPorta quietly put up the 56th-best RAS for TEs since 1987, just a few spots behind another Iowa TE named George Kittle.
Although LaPorta only earned a 6% target share as a freshman, he had a 23% route participation rate, and his target-earning ability was already shining through with a 23% TPRR.
As a junior in 2021, LaPorta eclipsed the 20% dominator rating (26%) in his age-20.6 season, and he then repeated this feat as a senior last year while accounting for 32% of the team targets and 34% of the yards.
But though LaPorta was a target magnet, he wasn’t a big-play threat. Just 7% of his targets came on passes of 20 or more yards downfield, and LaPorta's career aDOT of 8.0 yards ranked only in the 39th percentile.
And despite a few highlight-reel efforts, LaPorta struggled to create explosive plays. His 17% explosive target rate ranks in the 32nd percentile, and LaPorta also had a mediocre 58th-percentile career YPRR (1.89) and a 55th-percentile best-season YPRR (2.16).
However, quality of QB play can greatly influence those metrics. Iowa QBs combined for a 55% or lower completion rate over those two seasons even in spite of a low 8.5 aDOT, and the average since 2014 for teams with an aDOT between seven and nine yards was 60%.
Interestingly, when removing expected draft capital from the equation, two former Hawkeye players, Kittle and Noah Fant, are close comps for LaPorta. He also compares similarly to Jonnu Smith and Albert Okwuegbunam.
LaPorta could be a high-end target earner at the next level, and he could become a more efficient receiver as well considering that his struggles in college could've been due to poor QB play at Iowa.
And even if LaPorta doesn’t take a step forward in creating big plays, he could still offer low-end fantasy TE1 potential as volume play, especially if he lands on a team without much impactful target competition.
Tier 3
Tucker Kraft | South Dakota State | 6’5 and 254 lbs.
- Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 68th percentile
- Underdog ADP: undrafted
- Rookie Rank: TE6, No. 53 overall
Tucker has a shot at Round 3 draft capital based on the latest mock drafts. He has the size and measurables that NFL teams like, but his production and flashes on tape came at the expense of small-school opponents.
At South Dakota State, Tucker posted 74th-percentile career YPRR (2.33) and 63rd-percentile best YPRR (2.38) marks. If he had delivered similar production against Power Five opponents, those marks would be strong enough to place him in Tier 2 after factoring in his 24% explosive target rate. It is worth noting that Tucker received interest from programs like Alabama ahead of his junior season, according to Dane Brugler.
South Dakota State s Tucker Kraft leaps to catch a pass in the end zone as Holy Cross John Smith prevents him from doing so in the FCS quarterfinals on Saturday, December 10, 2022, in Sioux Falls. Fcs Quarterfinal 003 Photo Credit: Erin Woodiel / Argus Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK
His career-high target share of 22% is misleading due to never eclipsing a 70% route participation – a significant variable when evaluating TE prospects. While we would prefer a target monster from a small school, his 25% career TPRR suggests he has a chance in the NFL.
He operated as an underneath option for the Jackrabbits with a 27th-percentile career aDOT (6.9). However, he was tough to bring down after the catch averaging 6.6 yards in YAC – 1.6 yards above the average for FCS TEs with a similar aDOT. Kraft’s ability after the catch helped bolster his explosive target rate to 24% (60th percentile).
As he transitions from the FCS to the NFL, Kraft likely won’t have much value in redraft and best ball formats this season. However, he is worth a later-round pick in rookie drafts if you need TE depth.
Luke Musgrave | Oregon State | 6’6 and 253 lbs.
- Fantasy Life TE Super Model: 61st percentile
- Underdog ADP: TE36, late rounds
- Rookie Rank: TE5, No. 36 overall
There's a big disconnect between how the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model views Luke Musgrave compared to how the scouting community views him as a prospect. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has Musgrave ranked as his top TE prospect and his No. 14 player overall, and Dane Brugler of The Athletic has Musgrave at No. 27 overall as his TE2.
The former three-star recruit only had 464 receiving yards and one TD heading into his senior season. However, Musgrave got off to a hot start in the first two games of 2022 before suffering a season-ending knee injury. In those two contests, he racked up 11 receptions for 169 yards and a TD while accounting for 29% of the Beavers’ targets.
Musgrave fully recovered from his injury to post sterling numbers at the NFL Combine, including a 40-yard dash time that ranked in the 88th percentile. He has the unique blend of size and speed that NFL teams covet, and as such, Musgrave currently projects to be a second-round selection in the NFL Draft.
On top of his speed, Musgrave's 88th-percentile career aDOT (12.5) also suggests that he could be a seam-stretcher at the next level.
However, the rest of his profile is full of question marks. Musgrave was on pace to notch a solid dominator season prior to his injury last year, but it's risky to extrapolate too much from his 50-route sample in those two games.
Despite a lack of high-end target competition, the towering TE prospect was never a target magnet in college. Musgrave's career TPRR of 17% is below the 20% TPRR mark we've seen from TE prospects who have produced top-12 fantasy finishes over their first three seasons in the NFL.
From a YPRR perspective, Musgrave gets some leeway thanks to shoddy QB play, but his numbers were dreadful. His career 1.38 YPRR is in the 39th percentile for TE prospects since 2017. Again, he was off to a great start with a 3.38 YPRR as a senior, but that sample size isn’t large enough to count toward a career-best in the model.
Musgrave's career-average of 3.8 YAC was also unimpressive, as TEs with similar a similar aDOT have historically averaged 5.1 YAC. And when you watch Musgrave on film, he doesn’t often break tackles, nor does he have the best balance as an open-field runner.
While I am not an NFL scout, I watched the final two seasons of Musgrave’s college games, and there wasn't much to make me want to rank him higher than where the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model had him graded. Of course, we hope that Musgrave will prove us wrong and the scouts right, but his profile is questionable at best.
Some have compared Musgrave's profile to Dallas Goedert, but Goedert was light years ahead entering the NFL according to the Super Model. Instead, Coby Fleener was the name that came to mind most often for me while watching Musgrave.
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