Dynasty Decoding. Finding fantasy value in ambiguous backfields.
With dynasty startup drafts in full swing, Sam Wallace is here to help fantasy managers decode crowded backfields.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones (ADP RB26) vs AJ Dillon (ADP RB32)
The Jordan Love era has officially begun.
As a new chapter begins in Green Bay, the once fantasy-friendly offense will have a much different look and feel this season.
Aaron Jones (28 years old) and AJ Dillon (25), yearly staples for the Packers, both figure to remain heavily involved as each has topped 170 carries in consecutive seasons.
The challenge for dynasty managers is deciding which player to select in startup drafts.
KTC, a crowd-sourced rankings site, has Jones (RB26) a few slots ahead of Dillon (RB32). Normally, I’m all for getting younger in dynasty, especially at RB, but Jones’ profile is intriguing.
First, he’s the clear No. 1 option in this backfield and has a proven track record of fantasy production. Jones has finished as a top-10 option in PPR formats in four straight seasons. By comparison, Dillon has never finished higher than RB23.
Second, the value of targets cannot be overstated. Ian Hartitz recently said, “Historically, one target is equal to about 2.7 carries in terms of expected PPR points.”
Jones’ 264 targets since 2019 ranks fifth among all RBs.
Finally, while the Packers added offensive help via the draft, he remains the 1A of the backfield. In his Fantasy Fixers piece, Jonathan Fuller suggested that, “...the priorities on draft day should be building the defense and adding talented pass catchers to support their young QB”.
Green Bay certainly did both with their selections in the first two rounds.
Even with the influx of talented youth, Love will need to rely on his veterans. Jones is arguably one of the most talented pass-catchers on the roster and should continue to be a focal point of this offense.
His age is concerning, but for the next two years, I will take Jones over Dillon in dynasty leagues, especially in PPR formats.
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Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson (ADP RB34) vs Antonio Gibson (ADP RB40)
It’s equal parts fun and frustrating when a team has all the pieces to be competitive except for the most important position in football.
Quarterback.
The Commanders (almost) have it all. Ian & Dwain broke it all down in their Team Preview last week. They have talented WRs, a semi-decent option at TE, and a pair of intriguing RBs who are leaving dynasty managers in a tough spot.
Brian Robinson (24 years old) and Antonio Gibson (24) may be similar in age, but the former has just one year of NFL experience while the latter has three.
Our crowd-sourced rankings site has Robinson (RB34) a few slots ahead of Gibson (RB40). While age was a variable to consider with the Packers, it isn’t a factor here. So, let’s look at the data.
We just talked about the importance of targets for RBs, and the same holds true here. Gibson has received 44, 52, and 58 targets, respectively in his three seasons.
Perhaps more importantly, the team released J.D. McKcKissic, one of the premier pass-catching RBs of the last few years. Ian Hartitz noted, “Overall, Commanders RBs ranked second in expected PPR points per game during the 2020 to 2022 seasons.”
There could be even MORE opportunities for Gibson to contribute in the passing game.
I’m surprised Robinson is ranked ahead of Gibson.
Shoutout to what Robinson was able to overcome off the field, but he was an older prospect coming out of college and was one of the least-efficient rushers in 2022.
- PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RBs)
- Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)
Finally, the Commanders added former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy to their staff this offseason, and the positive coach-speak on Gibson is already starting.
Commanders HC Ron Rivera said he would like to get Antonio Gibson more touches in 2023.
Sign. Me. Up.
The community may have a tough time deciding between these two players, but I am firmly #TeamGibson in dynasty startup drafts.
New Orleans Saints
Kendre Miller (ADP RB27) vs Alvin Kamara (ADP RB35) vs Jamaal Williams (ADP RB44)
The remaining three teams all have dynasty managers staring down three-headed backfields. Coincidentally enough, each of these three-way RB rooms includes a rookie from this recent draft class.
The Saints spent the 71st pick on Kendre Miller out of TCU. Chris Allen wrote up his Dynasty Rookie Profile and noted a few key details about Miller.
- Exceptional contact balance that allowed him to reach the second level
- Ability to power through a gap in short-yardage situations
- One of six RBs in the 2023 class who was above average in both yards after contact and forced missed tackles per attempt
A Day 2 selection signifies the Saints have strong aspirations for Miller.
Veteran Alvin Kamara began to look like a shell of his former self last season, and the potential for a suspension looms large this summer. At 27 years old, it’s fair to assume Kamara will still have some value, but the team’s offseason moves indicate they are preparing for the worst.
Along with drafting Miller, the Saints signed Jamaal Williams. Fresh off his 17 TD season with the Lions, the 28-year-old figures to assume early-down duties if Kamara misses time this season. Williams also shattered his career-best marks in both rushing attempts and rushing yards last season.
Miller is in a unique spot due to his age, draft capital, and situation. Both Kamara and Williams are on the back half of their respective careers but both could have decent fantasy outcomes in 2023.
While his dynasty ADP (RB27) is already heating up, I don’t mind drafting and holding Miller for the potential he has to smash this season (if things fall his way) and beyond.
Chicago Bears
Roschon Johnson (ADP RB36) vs Khalil Herbert (ADP RB37) vs D'Onta Foreman (ADP RB54)
Roschon Johnson may be the biggest sleeper running back in this year's class.
Strong words. Let’s dive in.
The Bears spent the 115th pick on Johnson. Eliot Crist wrote up his Dynasty Rookie Profile and raved about the potential upside.
- Since 2015, Johnson's missed tackles forced per touch is the highest in the NCAA at 0.394; numbers two and three are Javonte Williams and Bijan Robinson
- Johnson and Robinson had the same EPA per carry (+0.18), while Johnson had a higher rush success rate and averaged more yards per carry after contact
- His 1.54 10-yard split is 86th percentile, rare for backs his size who usually rely on build-up speed
Did you know Johnson’s other numbers stacked up quite well against Robinson? You might want to take a peek at this.
Whew, the data doesn’t lie.
Let’s not forget about Khalil Herbert (25-years old) and D'Onta Foreman (27). Herbert was a trendy, efficient backup for David Montgomery for two seasons and could be in line for a larger role. However, Foreman was brought on and he’s coming off a career-best season where he topped 200 rushing attempts & 900 rushing yards.
See what I mean? Three-way backfields are the worst. But they’re also the best for savvy, risk-tolerant fantasy managers.
Dynasty managers are already getting ahead of the curve by valuing Johnson (RB36) the highest of the three.
To me, Foreman has little to no dynasty value because of his age, injury history, and overall lack of production. As for Herbert, he finished No. 5 in yards after contact per attempt (3.67) last season so the potential is there but the opportunity might not be.
When the backfield is this clogged and there’s no clear answer by way of ADP, give me the untapped upside of Johnson in dynasty startup drafts.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook (ADP RB30) vs Alexander Mattison (ADP RB33) vs DeWayne McBride (ADP RB58)
One more crowded backfield? One more crowded backfield.
This one might be the trickiest to decode because the potential for a big off-season move is still within the range of outcomes.
The Minnesota Vikings predictably let Adam Thielen walk in free agency but have yet to make a decision about another highly-paid player: Dalvin Cook.
Unsubstantiated rumors continue to swirl that Cook could be traded or released in the coming weeks, but nothing definitive has surfaced as of this writing. Still, dynasty managers need to make a decision if they have startup drafts on the horizon.
Cook (27-years old) has been one of the premier players at the position for several years while Alexander Mattison (24) has been one of the elite handcuffs for four straight seasons
In games without Cook, Mattison has been nothing short of spectacular.
- 20.3 points per game
- 24 opportunities per game
- 115 scrimmage yards per game
The Vikings did sign Mattison to a two-year / $7 million contract this offseason. Regardless of what happens to Cook, Mattison’s roster spot is secured.
Then there’s DeWayne McBride (222nd overall). Dwain McFarland wrote up his Dynasty Rookie Profile. One big takeaway?
No RB in the 2023 class averaged more yards after contact over their career than McBride’s 86th-percentile mark of 4.93 yards.
Dwain also notes, “McBride translated 96 (20%) of his career rushing attempts (484) into plays of 10-plus yards.”
The path to relevance is there, especially if the team moves on from Cook. McBride’s closest comps in the Rookie RB Model are AJ Dillon and Trey Sermon.
In a startup draft, I prefer Mattison. His dynasty ADP is palatable and he’s under contract for the next two seasons. There’s too much smoke around Cook for me to draft him with confidence. If you want to double down, you could easily draft McBride as he’s going much later in drafts.
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