2023 Team Preview: Washington Commanders
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Washington Commanders, looking at key questions like:
- Who will start more games: Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett?
- Are both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson rather great zero-RB targets?
- Can Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson boom despite the lack of a great overall offensive environment?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Commanders will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable offseason moves
Head coach Ron Rivera is back for his fourth season in Washington with Jack Del Rio as the defensive coordinator. However, Washington moved on from longtime offensive coordinator Scott Turner and replaced him with ex-Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy.
On the one hand, Bieniemy helped engineer five straight Chiefs offenses that ranked no worse than sixth in total yards and points during his time as OC.
On the other hand, it’s tough to separate how much of that had to do with Bieniemy and how much had to do with those Andy Reidy and Patrick Mahomes fellas.
At a minimum, the presence of Bieniemy *should* lead to two things for the Commanders:
- Throwing the damn ball more
- Operating at a quicker pace.
Just look at the contrast between each team’s rank in pass rate over expectation and situation-neutral pace over the past three years:
While I do believe in the “Jims and Joes” mattering more than the “X’s and O’s” at the professional level, a more wide-open Kansas City-style attack can only help the involved fantasy parties. This switch at OC should be viewed as a rather nice improvement compared to the slow, run-first offenses this team has run for the better part of the last three seasons under Rivera.
Additionally, the Commanders have made plenty of changes to their roster. Let’s review the skill positions:
- QB: Major overhaul without a serious investment in an answer. What could go wrong? Anyway, 2022 starters Carson Wentz (who remains a free agent) and Taylor Heinicke (Falcons) are out of the picture. That leaves us with 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell and journeyman Jacoby Brissett (one-year, $8M deal) to compete for the starting job.
- RB: Longtime scat back J.D. McKissic is still a free agent, and his future in football is unclear after missing time in back-to-back seasons with neck injuries.
- WR: Complementary WR Cam Sims signed with the Raiders. Otherwise, all key contributors are back.
- TE: None…yet. But let’s see what happens with Logan Thomas.
Adding third- and fourth-round assets to PFF’s reigning 20th-ranked offensive line won’t hurt, but otherwise, sixth-round Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. was the only fantasy-relevant player drafted. Bieniemy noted Rodrigues will have a role, but the low draft capital involved makes that more of a dream than a guarantee – that’s usually the case with day three rookies.
QBs
- Sam Howell (Ian’s QB30)
- Jacoby Brissett (QB36)
The offseason chatter on Howell has been all over the place.
- February 8: Rivera said Howell “will start out as QB1” heading into the offseason.
- February 28: Rivera said Howell “is not our starter” but will begin the offseason as Washington’s No. 1 QB.
- March 8: Rivera said if a veteran QB beats out Howell for the starting job, “so be it.”
- April 21: Rivera said Washington feels “very comfortable” with their current QB situation.
The most recent update comes from ESPN’s John Keim, who stated, “sources within the team say they plan to give him (Howell) first shot at the starting job in 2023.”
Small-sample size be damned. There’s reason for optimism behind Howell as both a real-life and fantasy QB. The rising second-year signal caller’s deep-ball goodness and 183-828-11 rushing line in his final season at North Carolina paint the picture of a fantasy-friendly QB. And he demonstrated those traits at the NFL level with a QB7 finish in Week 18 last season.
The hit rate of day-three picks isn’t good, but it sure seems like Howell will have every opportunity to seize the starting job inside of an offense quietly loaded with quality pass-catchers.
Of course, Howell does need to hold off Brissett for said starting job. The former Patriots, Colts, Dolphins and Browns QB was legit good in 2022 – he ranked third in completion percentage over expected (+2.8%) and 11th in EPA per dropback (+0.12) among all QBs to play at least 300 snaps – but the other six years of his career painted a far more depressing picture.
Nobody is going to use a draft pick on Howell in traditional one-QB leagues, but he offers some legit upside as a LATE-round dart in best ball and superflex formats. I’ve preferred deploying a “first or last” strategy when drafting QBs in best ball due to the position flying off the board at a ridiculously fast rate, and Howell has been someone I’ve enjoyed stacking with Terry McLaurin and/or Jahan Dotson when possible.
Additional QBs being drafted outside of Underdog Fantasy’s top-200 selections don’t have Howell’s combination of a legit opportunity to start 17 games and a fantasy-friendly skill set that could boom if everything goes right. He’s an ideal third or fourth QB addition for drafters that faded the top-tier options at the position.
RBs
- Brian Robinson (Ian’s RB27)
- Antonio Gibson (RB36)
It’s hard to overstate just how much fantasy-friendly opportunity is suddenly available in this backfield with free agent RB J.D. McKissic seemingly out of the picture. Overall, Commanders RBs ranked second in expected PPR points per game during the 2020 to 2022 seasons, mostly because of their willingness to pepper the backfield with targets.
Historically, one target is equal to about 2.7 carries in terms of expected PPR points. Few RBs have been targeted more frequently than McKissic over the years:
Accounting for McKissic’s missed time further demonstrates just how involved he was in this passing game.
Only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara had more targets per game than the former Washington scatback over the past three seasons.
Gibson was able to work as the offense’s primary pass-down back for six-week stretches at the end of 2021 as well as in 2022. As a result, he finished as the overall PPR RB11 in the former stretch and the RB34 in the latter.
Of course, the 2021 production was far superior to what Gibson managed in 2022 without McKissic due to the presence of Robinson, who worked as the team’s early-down bell-cow back throughout his rookie season.
Credit to Robinson for his awesome big hats and for finishing his debut campaign strong. It makes sense that it took a while to fully recover from a freaking gunshot wound – but we’re still talking about one of the league’s least-efficient rushers on the year.
- PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RB)
- Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)
Part of the reason why Robinson’s PFF grade is superior to his per-carry metrics is due to his status as one of just nine RBs who faced eight-plus defenders in the box on at least 30% of their carries (Next-Gen Stats). Plus, the 2022 third-round pick earned just 12 targets all season and still only played 52% of the offense’s snaps in Week 17, with both Gibson and McKissic sidelined.
Ultimately, Robinson and Gibson profile as middle-class versions of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt over the past few years. A true every-down role seems out of the picture for Robinson, while Gibson is more of a “FLEX with benefits” play thanks to his pass-game upside AND sky-high handcuff potential.
It’s possible that an offense led by Bieniemy and Howell doesn’t keep the RB as involved in the passing game, and nothing is guaranteed in terms of overall scoring upside. Still, this uncertainty is already more than baked into the cost of both RBs.
Robinson and Gibson profile as rather great zero-RB options who are being drafted after the first 50 (!) WRs.
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WRs
- Terry McLaurin (Ian’s WR20)
- Jahan Dotson (WR39)
- Curtis Samuel (WR76)
- Dyami Brown (WR123)
McLaurin’s 2022 production was particularly impressive when you grind the film and realize just how many times he won against some of the league’s top CBs. None of Jaire Alexander (5-73-1), Stephon Gilmore (6-113-0) and Darius Slay (6-102-0, 8-128-0) had much of an answer for the Commanders’ undisputed No. 1 WR.
Unfortunately, style points don’t count for anything extra in fantasy football, and McLaurin has to get used to yet another QB change.
Speaking of McLaurin’s career QBs: Want to see a dead body?
It’s possible Howell (throws a pretty deep ball!), or Brissett (legit good in 2022! No. 3 in CPOE!) are better than anyone else McLaurin has had. Things certainly can’t get much worse.
Taylor Heinicke (48.9 PFF passing grade, 47th) and Carson Wentz (58.9, 39th) were two of PFF’s 10 lowest-graded QBs in passing among 48 qualified signal-callers last season.
McLaurin’s status as the reigning WR24 in PPR points per game despite existing in such a frustrating offensive environment is good news for his potential to boom higher with even a moderate upgrade under center. I’m continuing to go back to the well with one of the game’s best real-life talents at the position. Here’s to hoping his fantasy ranking catches up to where his peers already view him.
And then there’s Dotson, who was limited to just 12 games in 2022 due to a nagging hamstring injury. Still, the rookie’s 35-523-7 receiving line reflected the sort of upside the team was hoping to see after taking him with the 16th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Sometimes high TD percentages are viewed as “fluky” in the fantasy world; yardage tends to be stickier on a year-to-year basis. But just realize that Dotson’s production was far more due to him winning against the man in front of him than benefiting from coverage busts.
Seriously: I woke my dogs up multiple times while geeking out at some of the below routes.
Still, fun highlights don’t give us the right to ignore Dotson’s middling efficiency numbers.
- PFF receiving grade: 74.0 (31st among 80 qualified WR)
- Passer rating when targeted: 102.9 (32nd)
- Yards per route run: 1.39 (51st)
- Yards per reception: 14.9 (tied for 11th)
- Yards after the catch per reception: 4.1 (39th)
- Targets per route run: 14.9% (No. 68)
Like McLaurin, Dotson deserves some slack for his lack of elite counting stats because of the team’s aforementioned porous QB situation. And, also like McLaurin, we can’t simply rank Dotson as a real-life talent without including the offensive environment concerns.
Ultimately, I’ve found myself buying plenty of Dotson at his current price point (WR4 territory). It’s alongside guys with similar target competition but fewer concerns about how truly good they are, like Gabriel Davis, Quentin Johnston, Courtland Sutton and Brandin Cooks. Still, this is also the point in drafts where I’m usually more content dipping my toes in the RB waters should the roster already have three to four ballers at WR.
Finally, there’s Samuel, who quietly racked up 843 total yards and five scores last season. The Ohio State product was really humming early on in the season with Carson Wentz under center, but he was relegated to more of a part-time player down the stretch due to guys like Cam Sims and Dyami Brown also playing a role.
Samuel presents interesting late-round value thanks to his ability to moonlight as an RB. That said, he’s still multiple injuries away at either position from being a FLEX option that you would feel comfortable firing up. I’ll largely only be drafting Samuel this year in best ball when building a late stack with one of McLaurin and Dotson already on the squad.
TEs
- Logan Thomas (Ian’s TE34)
- John Bates (TE67)
- Cole Turner (TE68)
One of the top pre-draft landing spots for the position, but Washington surprisingly didn’t do anything to spruce up this rather underwhelming room.
There are currently five involved parties with an opportunity to find their way onto the field this season:
- Thomas: He’ll be 32 in July. Thomas averaged three-year lows in yards per reception (8.3) and yards per target (5.3) while just one year removed from 2021’s season-ending knee injury. While Thomas profiles as the most fantasy-friendly pass-catcher of the group, Washington could save nearly $7 million against the cap with just $1.75 million in dead money should they designate the veteran as a post-June 1 cut.
- Bates: The rising third-year TE has caught 34 passes for 357 yards and a pair of TDs in 33 career games. Bates enjoyed a true every-down role for portions of 2021 with Thomas sidelined but never surpassed the 60% mark in a game last season.
- Turner: The 2022 fifth-round pick only caught two passes in 10 games last season, but the coaching staff thought enough of him to hand out snap rates between 17-93% in those contests.
- Armani Rogers: Similar to Turner, Rogers himself didn’t receive enough playing time to put up big-time numbers (5-64-0 on the season), but his ability to work into the rotation lowered the upside of the position’s pass-catchers.
- Curtis Hodges: Didn’t play a snap as a rookie after being placed on the injured reserve list with a thigh injury in the preseason.
Dec 4, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Washington Commanders tight end Logan Thomas (82) runs with the ball as New York Giants linebacker Micah McFadden (41) defends during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Thomas played 90% or more of the offense’s snaps in each of the team’s final 10 games of 2020, leading to his breakout 72-670-6 season-long performance. Unfortunately, the team proved far more willing to rotate players at the position last year, both with and without their veteran TE.
This is a situation worth staying away from at the moment ahead of 2023. Clarity that one party is working well ahead of everyone else could produce a late-round sleeper, but Thomas seems to have similar odds of starting the season as the No. 1 TE as he does to not being on the roster.
Throw in an already-crowded passing game with questionable overall upside, and fantasy managers should only potentially invest in this group on the waiver wire.
2023 Win Total: 6.5
- -122 juice on the over
The only other teams without a win total of at least seven are the: Colts, Buccaneers, Texans, Raiders, Rams and Cardinals. Not exactly great company to be in, although Washington has at least managed to peel off seven, seven, and most recently, eight wins in three seasons under Rivera.
Playing in the loaded NFC East won’t help matters, but the Commanders will benefit from facing off against the last-place schedule. QB concerns are obviously why expectations are so low. That said, there is plenty of offensive firepower returning to complement the league’s reigning seventh-ranked scoring defense.
The process might not be pretty – and fan cries for Rivera’s job could reach a fever pitch with a slow start – there are still enough bright spots on both sides of the ball to believe this can be a 7-10 or better squad in 2023.
Similar to the Giants: I’m not expecting the Commanders to shake up the division’s hierarchy, but this total still feels a bit too low. I’ll take over 6.5 wins for a franchise that (remains) good QB play away from looking like a legit contender.
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