Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag. Key Questions for the 2024 Offseason.

The offseason is the perfect time to get your roster in order and set your sights on the NFL Draft, your upcoming rookie draft and the upcoming NFL season. With that in mind, I surveyed our Fantasy Life Community Discord members and asked for their dynasty questions. Let’s break them down and see if these can help you make sense of the current dynasty landscape.

What to make of Russell Wilson?

All the “let’s ride” memes aside, Russell Wilson is a fascinating case study in superflex dynasty leagues. He’s been informed he’ll be released at the start of the league year (March 13) and will become a free agent. He’s “only” 35 years old and recently mentioned he wants to win a pair of Super Bowls in the next five years.

If we take that five-year range seriously, there’s value to be had. Let’s take a look.

Wilson wasn’t bad last season. He finished with 26 TDs, 8 INTs and just over 3,000 passing yards in 15 games. He only posted one top-five finish but was rarely the reason you lost your matchup. He had either 200 passing yards or 2-plus total TDs in 13 of 15 games.

Still, fantasy managers were not pleased with the Wilson experience last season (and neither were the Denver Broncos). So the big question remains… where will he go? Here are my top two favorite landing spots.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have publicly stated they want to attempt to build around Kenny Pickett and give him another season to grow and succeed in the NFL. While I love that for Pickett the man, I can’t seriously believe an organization as well-run and championship-minded as Pittsburgh believes they can compete in their own division with Pickett under center.

Case in point: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson.

This team has offensive weapons at every skill position, a top-tier defense and an elite head coach. Go. Get. Wilson.

Atlanta Falcons

This one could be fun. Like the Steelers, Atlanta has a lot of young, talented pieces in place but are missing a QB (sorry, Desmond Ridder).

Raheem Morris (HC) and Zac Robinson (OC) would serve as an excellent coaching staff for a veteran like Wilson. Toss in young studs like Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts and you have the makings of a potentially high-flying offense.

The Falcons are also prepared to protect Wilson and keep him upright in the pocket. They finished with the No. 4 offensive line by the end of the season, per PFF. They also finished No. 2 in pass-blocking efficiency.

Finally, the NFC South was the only division last season to not have a team reach 10 wins. If there was ever an “easy” path to the postseason, this division looks like the one. Oh, and playing every home game and at least one road game in a dome is pretty cool, too.

What is Justin Fields’ current value vs. with the Falcons?

Arguably the biggest offseason storyline continues to revolve around the Chicago Bears, Justin Fields and Caleb Williams.

Will the Bears keep Fields? Will they trade him? Will they trade the No. 1 overall pick?

I’m of the opinion the Bears should attempt to trade Fields and draft Williams. We’ve seen how valuable it is to reset the rookie contract at the most valuable position in football. At the same time, we know what Fields is at this point (essentially).

Jan 7, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

In three seasons, he has never topped 2,600 passing yards or 17 passing TDs. Yes, he rushed for over 1,100 yards and eight TDs in 2022, but the Bears still only won three games that year. For Fields’ sake, I hope he lands elsewhere (like Atlanta). If he stays in Chicago, I fear it’ll be more of the same, and the Lions and Packers are only getting better.

The positives Atlanta has going for it apply to Fields as well. He would get a new HC/OC with ties to Sean McVay, which is never a bad thing. He would enter a weak division on a team with ample offensive firepower and an elite offensive line. The Falcons would do well to secure a dynamic, franchise-hopeful QB to continue building around.

Any under-the-radar sophomore WRs?

YES.

Now that I have your attention, might I introduce you to Trey Palmer of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? I recently tabbed him as a dynasty trade target so if you want the longer version, check out the article.

Here are the highlights:

While he came in at just No. 24 in our Rookie WR Model, he did post one of the best single-season dominator ratings of anyone in this class.

The Bucs drafted him in Round 6 and he posted solid numbers despite playing alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both veterans topped 130 targets, and together they accounted for 47% of the passing volume from Baker Mayfield.

For Palmer, 68% route participation, 12% target share and 14% air yards are fine starting points.

Evans is back on a new two-year contract, so Palmer figures to retain his role as the WR3. Still, there’s value to be had there, and I think his dynasty ranking of WR76 is too low. Palmer brings excellent athleticism, as demonstrated by his 4.33 40-yard dash (98th percentile) and 107.7 speed score (89th percentile). Those are the types of measurables that will keep you on the field and getting opportunities more often than not.

Honorable mentions: Dontayvion Wicks has as good a chance as anyone to emerge as the WR1 for Jordan Love and the Packers. … Parker Washington flashed when given a chance, and the Jaguars might not be able to keep Calvin Ridley. … Demario Douglas quietly had 5-plus targets in each of the final nine games last season.

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What’s the gap between Marvin Harrison Jr. and the rest of the rookie WRs?

Questions like this are always enjoyable because I tend to take a slightly different approach when talking about dynasty players and incoming prospects.

For me, it always comes down to cost.

Yes, I do have players I like (and sometimes dislike), but everyone becomes viable at a certain price point… just like everyone, at some point, becomes too expensive. While I do think Marvin Harrison Jr. is the No. 1 WR of this class and will be the first WR drafted in the NFL Draft, his current dynasty ranking gives me pause.

Nov 18, 2023; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Carson Hinzman (75) hoists wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) after the latter scored a touchdown during the second half of the NCAA football game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio Stadium. Ohio State won 37-3.

As of this writing, he’s being valued as the dynasty WR5 behind only Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. That’s aggressive. While I feel Harrison can absolutely be in that tier in short order, it’s the rankings of the other incoming rookies that catch my eye.

Malik Nabers is the dynasty WR9 and Rome Odunze is the WR17. Assuming Williams goes 1.01 in my SF rookie draft, I would be tempted to trade out of the 1.02 and acquire future capital to land someone like Nabers or Odunze.

Landing spots certainly make a difference. In his 2024 Mock Draft 2.0, Matthew Freedman currently has Harrison going to Arizona at No. 4, Nabers going to the Giants at No. 6 and Odunze going to the Bears at No. 9. The Cardinals have Kyler Murray, but both the Giants and Bears could be rolling out new QBs soon.

In the end, Harrison is the clear-cut WR1, but I don’t think it’s a big drop to the next tier of players. If the value is there, consider trading back.

What should dynasty managers make of the Dalton Schultz extension?

What a timely question! Dalton Schultz is now set to return to the Texans on a three-year $36M deal. Dwain McFarland just finished an excellent article on the top fantasy football tight ends and highlights what Schultz brings to the table for fantasy managers.

For added context, here’s Dwain’s methodology and reasoning for ranking TEs:

• Target-earning ability: targets per game, target share (excluding games missed) and targets per route run (TPRR)
• Air yards: air yards per game and air yards share (excluding games missed)
• Yards per route run (YPRR)
• Age at the beginning of the 2024 season

Personally, I’m excited for what Schultz can continue to offer a Texans offense led by CJ Stroud, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. The veteran TE may have to compete for targets a bit more than he might have elsewhere, but it’s a great football move by Houston. Dwain sums it up with this:

“Schultz is a borderline TE1 who offers upside if Dell or Collins misses time.”

Which players do you think could lose the most dynasty value (measured by startup ADP) after the 2024 draft?

For anyone who knows me, this will certainly be off-brand, but I think there’s a decent chance Tee Higgins loses some dynasty value following the draft.

Currently, he’s valued as the dynasty WR24 (which still feels low but that’s what the community has decided).

Here’s what we know:

• Ja’Marr Chase is due for a massive, potentially record-breaking contract.
• Tyler Boyd, Trenton Irwin and ALL of their TEs are UFAs
• Higgins received the franchise tag this offseason.

The Bengals currently have the 18th overall pick. Depending on how it shakes out, and if they make any draft-day moves, they could be in line to snag a rookie WR to pair with Joe Burrow.

The team needs to be thinking ahead, and if we assume Higgins is done in Cincinnati after this year (or sooner) resetting the contract clock by grabbing a talented wideout to pair with Burrow and Chase would help keep that offense in that elite tier.

Higgins will get paid by someone, but there’s no guarantee his QB will be as good as Burrow or that he’ll be able to demand a significant enough target share to keep him in the upper echelon of playmakers.

As far as pass-catchers go, Chase is the only sure thing beyond this season. That won’t cut it in the hyper-competitive AFC.