Rookie WR Model 

Dwain McFarland's Rookie WR Model

Last Updated Jul 6th, 2023 8:38 EDT

What is the WR Super Model? And How Does it Work?

Our goal is to identify the top rookie WR prospects based on data points that tie to fantasy production in the NFL. We tested several advanced metrics to see how they correlated with future fantasy production and integrated the top metrics into our model.

While this limits our college data set to WR prospects since 2017, our Super Model is also rooted in the more well-established metrics identified by the dynasty community that date further back.

Of course, this combination doesn’t make our WR Super Model perfect (no model is perfect), but we do think that it does make our model pretty super, and we can’t wait to watch it grow as we gather more data.

Data and metrics utilized:

  • Draft Pick
  • Career and best-season dominator rating
  • Receiving yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA)
  • Career yards per route run (YPRR)
  • Rookie season age (at the start of the 2023 season)
  • Career explosive rate per target (15-plus yard reception)