10 Things To Know For Week 7: The State of The Running Backs, Buying Low on Derrick Henry and More

Week 7 is upon us. Reminder: Friends and family come and go, but fantasy football championship banners hang forever.

This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 7 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. What are this year's biggest over- and under-performing offenses relative to preseason expectations?

I looked at the differences in every team's preseason implied point totals vs. what every squad has actually scored per game through six weeks to see who has over- and under-produced the most relative to expectations.

The five biggest positive differences:

1. Colts (21.5 preseason, 32.3 realized): Indy was expected to be just the 24th highest-scoring offense this season, but have f*cked around and literally out-scored everyone through six weeks of action. It turns out career-best play from Daniel Jones combined with a healthy Jonathan Taylor pacing for 2,000-plus total yards is more than enough to produce weekly fireworks, even if Jones has cooled off in recent weeks. Credit to Shane Steichen for putting his offense in a position to succeed: Indy has posted top-10 marks in pre-snap shift/motion (59%, 10th) and play-action (34%, 1st) alike this season.

2. Cowboys (22.4 preseason, 29.7 realized): It was always a bit surprising to see the Cowboys ranked just 19th coming into the season. My best explanation is concern over Dak Prescott returning from injury and the reality that he didn't play well in 2024. The preseason numbers were also taken before the Micah Parsons trade, which has helped produce more back-and-forth shootouts than expected. Regardless: Prescott and company look capable of hanging 30 points on pretty much anyone, which has been the case more years than not during his career.

3. Lions (25.3 preseason, 31.8 realized): Jared Goff and company have exceeded expectations, although in terms of rank they've only improved from third to second. Still: Credit to the Jimmys and Joes in Detroit for proving more than capable of keeping on keeping on without Ben Johnson's X's and O's. Overall, nobody has scored more total points than the Lions during the last three seasons.

4. Seahawks (22.3 preseason, 27.7 realized): Shoutout to Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for forming one of the game's most lethal QB-WR combinations and leading Seattle to a surprising 4-2 start in the ever-competitive NFC West. Darnold is legit playing like an MVP candidate with elite numbers in virtually any advanced efficiency metric out there (1st in EPA per play!), while JSN leads the NFL with 696 receiving yards and generally just looks unguardable out there.

5. Patriots (22 preseason, 25 realized): The Drake Maye experience has produced rather awesome year-two returns, as the 2024 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick is averaging a masterful 8.5 yards per attempt and proving capable of putting this franchise on his back while surrounded by a less-than-amazing supporting cast. Adding Stefon Diggs to the equation has also helped matters; just realize this passing game has really had to step up with the team's RBs ranking dead last in EPA per rush this season.

As for the five biggest negative differences: The Bengals, Titans, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders have been the most disappointing squads, although it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize Cincy and San Fran have mostly just been impacted by some key injuries, while the other three squads have simply been even worse than their already bad preseason expectations.

Certainly plenty of the blame for these underperforming teams will be placed at the feet of the involved QB, but it's important to remember that not every offensive environment is exactly created equal in today's NFL.

2. Which QBs are dealing with the best all-around supporting casts?

I pulled every team's average PFF grades in rushing, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking–everything except passing–to get an idea of which QBs have been blessed with the best and worst supporting casts. Two obvious limitations to this are that blocking serves as 50% of the equation here, and dual-threat QBs naturally help their team's overall rushing attack. Still, no football stat is perfect, and I still find this interesting. Cool? Cool.

You can peep the full list here, but the top-five supporting casts through six weeks of action are…

1. Bills: This is in large part thanks to Buffalo carrying top-seven marks in pass blocking, run blocking, and rushing. The team's overall receiving (15th) does have some work to do, although injuries are starting to play a role there with both Josh Palmer (ankle) and Dalton Kincaid (oblique) actively banged up. Turns out Week 7 is a pretty good time for Josh Allen and company to get their bye week in.

2. Colts: Top-eight across the board, Indy boasts a pretty, pretty, pretty great pool of talent across their entire offense. This isn't meant to take away anything from Mr. Jones, but hey, this offense's combination of offensive line play and talent at RB, WR, and TE alike has certainly set the much-maligned former Giants signal-caller up for plenty of success this season.

T3. Seahawks: Unlike with the Bills and Colts: Seattle's standing here is NOT thanks in large part to their offensive line performance. Rather, JSN and company have the highest team-wide receiving grade, while the run game also ranks a respectable seventh. Of course, said rushing attack has also been largely carried by Kenneth Walker, who has easily made more out of his opportunities than Zach Charbonnet through six weeks of action.

T3. Lions: The least surprising team here continues to boast an embarrassment of riches largely across the entire offense. I mean, No. 3 WR Isaac TeSlaa is even supplying a sweet highlight every few weeks. Give Goff credit for pulling the right strings, but yeah: Detroit should be on anyone's short list of the most QB-friendly offensive environments in the NFL.

5. Chiefs: The team has largely been good-not-great across the board, although getting No. 1 WR Rashee Rice back this week figures to help pretty much everyone involved. I'm just happy Patrick Mahomes and company have managed to get away from last season's constant death-by-a-thousand-paper-cuts attack and finally get back to creating explosive plays on a more regular basis.

The Panthers, Falcons, Rams, Broncos, and Eagles rounded out the top-10, while the bottom-five supporting casts are headlined by the Bengals, Browns, Dolphins, Titans, and Steelers.

3. Are there any man- or zone-coverage merchants in the NFL?

There are! While WR vs. coverage data can be a bit noisy at times due to limitations surrounding sample size and the reality that every NFL defense runs more zone than man, we can still perhaps get some solid takeaways when focusing on the extremes.

With this in mind: The following WRs have earned far more targets per route run vs. man coverage compared to zone and are facing off against defenses that are expected to run a relatively high rate of man coverage this week:

Bengals WR Tee Higgins (31% targets per route run vs. man coverage, 13% vs. zone): Squares off against the Steelers, who have run the league's third-most man coverage this season. Different QB and defensive personnel certainly matter, but note Higgins has averaged 5.1 receptions for 87.1 yards and 0.5 TDs in eight career appearances against Pittsburgh.
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan (39% vs. 21%): Will be matched up against Sauce Gardner and the Jets, who have run the eighth-most man coverage this season. This one is a bit trickier because T-Mac is a strong candidate to see shadow coverage from Sauce; just realize the Jets No. 1 CB didn't exactly shut down the likes of DK Metcalf (4-83-0), Mike Evans (4-33-1, left early) and George Pickens (2-57-1) in previous one-on-one matchups before locking up Courtland Sutton (1-17-0) last week.
Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (35% vs. 14%): Gets to go against the Bears, who have run the fourth-most man coverage this season. Shaheed has displayed a newfound floor this year with at least four receptions in every game, and there's downfield boom potential against a Bears defense that has allowed league-worst marks in passer rating, EPA, yards per attempt, and completion rate on passes thrown 20+ yards downfield to WRs this season.

Also note that Drake London and Tyler Warren stand out as extreme target earners vs. zone compared to man and get to face top-10 defenses in zone coverage rate. Obviously you were starting those guys anyways, but yeah, here's to hoping for some especially good weeks!

4. Week 6 RB Report: The workhorse RB is BACK, baby

Workhorse alert: Half the league featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 6: Christian McCaffrey (93%), Jonathan Taylor (91%), De'Von Achane (89%), Rico Dowdle (88%), Javonte Williams (85%), Saquon Barkley (80%), Ashton Jeanty (79%), Josh Jacobs (78%), Rachaad White (78%), Isiah Pachecho (77%), Breece Hall (75%), Kyren Williams (75%), Bijan Robinson (73%), Cam Skattebo (72%), Rhamondre Stevenson (71%), and Jahmyr Gibbs (70%). All should be auto starts in pretty much fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the only two real exceptions being Pacheco (this is a promising leap in usage but we shouldn't immediately assume this is the new norm after he posted a 53% snap rate during Weeks 1-5) and Stevenson (headlines the league's least-efficient rushing attack in terms of EPA per designed RB carry). Even then, I typically let a workhorse RB's volume win as the tiebreaker over WR3 types in close start/sit decisions.

Gotta love a good handcuff: Of course, two RBs in that above workhorse group are only auto-starts because their team's starter is out. That reality will remain true for Mr. Rachaad White with Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder) "not in play" for Week 7, per head coach Todd Bowles, while it seems like Chuba Hubbard (calf) at least has a shot to return this week. That said: It sure seems like back-to-back 200-plus yard performances should be enough for Rico to at least keep seeing 50% or more of the backfield's work. He'll certainly topple down the ranks a bit if Chuba is active; either way credit to the ex-Cowboy for his electric last two performances.

Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include: Travis Etienne (top-22 finish in all but one game this season), Jordan Mason (as long as Aaron Jones remains sidelined), JK Dobbins (especially as a seven-point home favorite vs. the Giants), Alvin Kamara (but just one top-24 finish in the last four weeks), Quinshon Judkins (although it was a bold choice for the Browns to play their best offensive player on under half of their snaps last Sunday), Derrick Henry (I don't like the idea of buying low-ish on Henry during the bye week, I LOVE it), James Cook (but zero receptions over the last two weeks has been pretty weird, man), D'Andre Swift (averaging more PPR points per game than Saquon Barkley this season), and Bill Croskey-Merritt (but remember, rookie: Ball security, job security).

Muddled committees are so lame: And the Cardinals, Steelers, and Texans largely continue to insist on deploying just that. None of the involved backs crack my top 24 and shouldn't be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist.

Shoutout Kimani Vidal: The Chargers' backfield leader was deservedly THE top waiver wire pickup of Week 7. Vidal is a low-end RB2 with this sort of usage. Of course, Los Angeles doesn't get to play the Dolphins every week, there are murmurs of the Chargers being involved in the RB trade market, and Omarion Hampton (ankle, IR) should return at some point. We also shouldn't expect Hassan Haskins to completely go away: The Michigan man still profiles as the lead goal-line back and could have earned himself some more snaps with his incredible blocking display on what wound up being the game-clinching play.

TD dependent early-down grinders: Feature David Montgomery and Nick Chubb, who simply don't have a high enough touch floor to be overly relied on during any given week. We'll see if the Lions' proclamation that they want to even out touches between D-Mont and Gibbs comes to fruition–credit to Knuckles for actually out-performing Sonic on a per-carry (5.1 vs. 4.5) and per target (7.8 vs. 4.5) basis this season.

What the hell, Seattle: Every efficiency stat tells us Kenneth Walker is better than Zach Charbonnet, but the Seahawks continue to split the work basically down the middle: Walker has 69 touches in their five full games together; Charbonnet has 64. Walker also has 326 yards on those opportunities … and Charb has 156. Sure, the latter RB has been more relied on in the red zone, but he also hasn't exactly been this consistent short-yardage specialist: Nobody has a higher percentage of carries producing zero or negative yards than Charbonnet this season. Of course, Seattle is playing great and wants to keep Walker healthy, so expecting a change here is probably wishful thinking. Neither needs to be in fantasy lineups ahead of this week's tough matchup with the Texans.

The workload is there, but the efficiency and/or scoring upside is not: Guys who you generally will probably still start in fantasy, but maybe you don't NEED to if you can help it feature Chase Brown and Tony Pollard. The former speedster has an unfathomable league-high 94 touches without a single 15-plus yard gain this season. I know the Bengals' offensive line hasn't helped matters … but c'mon man!

Low-ish rostered handcuffs to stash if possible: The following dudes were under 35% rostered on ESPN and/or Yahoo at the beginning of the week and are seemingly *one* injury away from being AT LEAST a top-20 weekly option at the position:

Saints RB Kendre Miller: RB4 in tackles avoided per carry. Carries injury/"we suck and it's December" contingency upside even with reports indicating Kamara is unlikely to be traded.
Titans RB Tyjae Spears: Looked SHIFTY out there last week, man. All I'm saying is that Spears' explosive pass-catching skill-set helped him post top-five PPR numbers during the fantasy playoffs last year.
Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue: Miles Sanders (knee/ankle) is done for the season. I don't know if Blue is good at football, but I do know the Cowboys offense is.
Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier: Basically 75% Bijan, which should be enough to produce weekly upside RB2 goodness.
Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten: Non-stop fantasy community glazing aside: Tuten is a size/speed freak who offers big-time upside inside an offense that has produced the fifth most RB rush yards before contact per carry this season.
49ers RB Brian Robinson: CMC on pace for 436 touches this season. Not saying B-Rob can hold a candle to McCaffrey's receiving ability, but there's upside RB2 Elijah Mitchell/Jordan Mason upside here.
Rams RB Blake Corum: Clear-cut RB2 inside a really good offense that loves leaning on one single RB. Hopefully the ankle is okay.
Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon: The clear-cut next-man-up from De'Von Achane. By the way, could we get a picture of Jaylen Wright holding up a recent newspaper or something?
Bills RB Ray Davis: Commanded 23/27 opportunities last year in the only game that James Cook missed and figures to be more available than ever during the Bills' Week 7 bye.

5. Two buy-low candidates I'm especially interested in

I find Twitter/X threads to be annoying because they're gimmicky ways of generating interactions. They go directly against the idea that short and concise is better. Why get your point across in one tweet when you can use 20?

That said: Some brave souls out there don't abuse Elon's algorithm and simply use threads when it makes sense, which was my intention when looking at the best and worst strength of schedules by position (based on their opponent's PPR points per game allowed) over the next five weeks of action. You can view that whole thread right here, but what follows are *two* players who I'm interested in buying low on after peeping their upcoming schedules.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry

Peeled off an overall RB1 finish to start the season … and has worked as just the RB59, RB20, RB43, RB29, and most recently RB13 since due mostly to a mix of negative/trailing game-script and the absence of Lamar Jackson. Good news: The Ravens are tentatively expected to have their two-time MVP QB back in the lineup following their Week 8 bye, and this team should be favored in every game moving forward.

I mean, look at this stretch! Even the tougher on-paper matchups could be games that feature the Ravens as big-time favorites:

Week 8: Bears (26th in PPR points per game allowed to RBs)
Week 9: Dolphins (28th)
Week 10: Vikings (23rd)
Week 11: Browns (2nd)
Week 12: Jets (15th)
Week 13: Bengals (32nd)
Week 14: Steelers (16th)
Week 15: Bengals (32nd)

Henry is still averaging five yards per carry and looks like his usual freakish self. I would take the over on his current 17-game pace of 264 touches, especially with the Ravens hardly being able to afford to take it easy on anyone's workload with their back against the wall at the moment. While I realize nobody is going to exactly give Henry away in the fantasy streets, sign me up for the following trades that were completed in Yahoo leagues on October 14:

Henry (and Woody Marks) for Javonte Williams
Henry (and Chris Olave) for Josh Downs, Matthew Golden, and Cam Skattebo
Henry (and CeeDee Lamb) for Josh Jacobs
Henry (and Tre tucker) for Nick Chubb and Jaylen Waddle

Bengals WR Tee Higgins

Don't expect Joe Flacco to throw for 300 yards a game, but the 40-year-old veteran at least cleared the (very low) bar set by Jake Browning during his first start for the Bengals in a tough road matchup against Micah Parsons and the Packers. It was Ja'Marr Chase (10-94-1) who saw a team-high 12 targets, but Higgins (8) wasn't too far behind–and I bet his value would be even higher if he hadn't been tackled at the one-yard line on one of his receptions.

Regardless: I still believe the following to be true:

Higgins is really good at football.
The Bengals defense is really bad at football.
Flacco is a better option than Browning until Joe Burrow (toe, IR) hopefully returns in December.

Accordingly, why not see if you can't trade for Higgins with the Bengals finally getting some relief in the schedule department after finishing a miserable four-game stretch against the Vikings, Broncos, Lions, and Packers? Things are looking AWESOME for Higgins and company all the way until December when *hopefully* Burrow will be nearing a return:

Week 7: Steelers (24th)
Week 8: Jets (8th)
Week 9: Bears (25th)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: Steelers (24th)
Week 12: Patriots (18th)
Week 13: Ravens (30th)

WRs who I would happily trade Higgins for straight up include: Chris Olave, Jordan Addison, DeVonta Smith, and Jameson Williams among others. I'd also be plenty willing to flip low-end RB2 types like Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins for Cincy's overqualified No. 2 WR.

6. Bye Week Doctor: Michael Penix and CJ Stroud set up well in Weeks 7-8

Plenty of fantasy managers will be scrambling to find a suitable QB streamer over the next two weeks: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are dealing with Week 7 byes, while Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith will be off in Week 8.

Luckily, there are two QBs pretty widely available who you should be able to have some level of confidence in to fill both of these weeks if needed:

Falcons QB Michael Penix vs. 49ers/Dolphins: Hopefully Penix will get Darnell Mooney (hamstring) back by next week; either way he's a candidate to flirt with a high-end outcome against the Fred Warner and Nick Bosa-less 49ers. Hell, Baker Mayfield didn't have his top-four WRs for most of Sunday afternoon … and he still managed to throw for 256 yards and two TDs on just 23 attempts. Obviously the … MVP favorite? … is a better QB than Penix; just realize this version of San Fran boasts Cowboys-esque weekly fantasy-friendly shootout potential. Penix also has a pristine Week 8 matchup on the horizon against the Dolphins' sad excuse for a professional secondary–only the Cowboys have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing QBs than Miami this season.

Texans QB CJ Stroud vs. Seahawks/49ers: It's been an up-and-down season for Stroud with most of his good performances coming against objectively bad defenses like the Ravens and Titans. That said: Stroud is averaging a career-high 24.4 rushing yards per game to complement his usual Nico Collins-induced passing upside. We've seen the Seahawks get shredded by Mayfield (379-2-0) and Trevor Lawrence (258-2-0) in back-to-back weeks while dealing with multiple injured starters in their secondary–don't be surprised if Stroud is the latest to shred this banged-up Seattle D. Week 8's matchup with the aforementioned injury-riddled 49ers defense is also juicy.

7. DST Corner: What groups have the most friendly upcoming schedules?

Obviously it's more than fine to simply prioritize the NFL's best overall real-life defenses when looking at who to play in fantasy football land; I like looking at team-wide "Havoc" from this perspective to get an idea of who is constantly creating the most negative plays.

That said: Elite units like the Broncos usually aren't available on waiver wires, so sometimes the next-best thing is simply playing the matchup game and trying to roster defenses with the benefit of matchup up against objectively bad offenses.

Accordingly, the below chart denotes every DST's strength of schedule in Weeks 7-11 when it comes to their opponent's rank in average fantasy points per game allowed to opposing DSTs.

The best options that are hopefully available on your waiver wire:

Patriots DST (TEN, CLE, ATL, TB, NYJ): We've been beating this horse for awhile now, but yeah: The DST8 on the season has a smashable schedule all the way up until their Week 14 bye. Throw in a more-than-solid return group, and New England remains my favorite DST to roll with at the moment.
Browns DST (MIA, NE, BYE, NYJ, BAL): I don't love the reality that this defense is routinely set up to fail thanks to token erratic rookie QB play BUT at the same time Myles Garrett is always capable of blowing up the whole game–particularly against these soft offensive lines.
Texans DST (SEA, SF, DEN, JAX, TEN): Generally I wouldn't highlight Houston as a defense because they should already be rostered everywhere, but perhaps that changed in your league due to their Week 6 bye. But yeah: This is a great real life defense that gets a relatively winnable stretch during the next five weeks.

Note that the Bears' perceived soft schedule doesn't look as great considering the Bengals, Ravens, and Giants are getting healthier/better, although I can get behind using them as a one-week streamer this week at home against the Saints. A similar sentiment is true for the Dolphins going up against the Browns.

Final note: While they won't help you over the next two weeks, keep an eye on the Jaguars following their Week 8 bye: They already lead the NFL in takeaways, boast some legit game-changers on the defensive line, and get the Raiders, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets during Weeks 9-15.

8. Two key Week 7 ranking questions and answers

I'll be publishing an early rankings column midday Monday throughout the season that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 7 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the three biggest questions and answers I had.

*Law and Order Music*

These are their stories.

Is Jaxson Dart's rushing production worthy of QB1 fantasy treatment?

Pretty close! The main reason why Dart (my QB14) just missed the cut is because of this week's less-than-ideal matchup against Pat Surtain and the Broncos, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this season.

That said: Goodness gracious has this rookie been electric as a ball carrier this season. Overall, Dart has posted 10-54-1, 7-55-0, and 13-58-1 rushing lines in his lone three starts–that's already tied for the most 50-plus yard rushing performances by a QB this season! Overall, Dart's average of 9.6 fantasy points per game from purely rushing ranks first at the position ahead of guys like Justin Fields (8.3), Jalen Hurts (8.3), and Josh Allen (7.8, pre-MNF).

Madness, but it's not quite as surprising when you consider that Dart leads all QBs in both scramble rate and designed rush rate this season.

While it'd do Dart some good to not take after his teammate Cam Skattebo quite as much in terms of throwing caution to the wind at the point of contact, it's hard not to be impressed with the 2025 NFL Draft's 25th overall pick through three career starts–particularly considering the utter lack of proven high-end pass-game options inside an offense without Malik Nabers (knee, IR) and (obviously to a lesser extent) Darius Slayton (hamstring).

Don't be surprised to see the rookie firmly inside the position's top-12 in more friendly future matchups against the banged-up Eagles, 49ers, and Bears.

Who left some serious meat on the bone in Week 6?

"Unrealized air yards" measure the total amount of air yards on incomplete targets. This helps identify players who had all sorts of fantasy-friendly downfield opportunities, but they simply couldn't come up with completions for one reason or another.

Anyway, 11 players had more than 60 unrealized air yards in Week 6:

Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (105)
Steelers WR DK Metcalf (90 – his day was almost MUCH bigger)
Bears WR Rome Odunze (89)
Falcons WR Drake London (74)
Jaguars WR Dyami Brown (72)
Ravens WR Zay Flowers (69)
Bengals WR Tee Higgins (66)
Giants WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (65)
Titans WR Elic Ayomanor (64)
Rams WR Davante Adams (61)
Broncos WR Marvin Mims (61)

Of course, these only cover targets that actively counted and weren't nullified by penalty. Unfortunately, there were four HUGE plays nullified by objectively annoying flags:

Brian Thomas Jr. hauled in a 54-yard TD … but Travis Hunter pulled a Kadarius Toney and lined up offsides.
Demario Douglas hauled in a second 61-yard TD, only for the score to be nullified on an OPI call on Stefon Diggs that occurred on the other side of the field.
Later Diggs himself caught a 51-yard pass down the sideline, only to again be called for OPI.
Rome Odunze somehow caught this absolutely awesome 11-yard TD … only for it to be nullified by an objectively ticky tack illegal formation penalty. Who exactly asked for the NFL to start cracking down on those?

9. Subjectively ranking every game from an entertainment perspective

Bad football will always be better than no football. That said: We obviously are more excited for certain games over others, so every week I'll take a few minutes to rank the upcoming matchups due to subjective, at times stupid and silly reasons.

Lions-Buccaneers: The good Monday night kickoff (7pm ET) featuring Baker MVPayfield putting the banged-up Bucs on his back like a prime Greg Jennings against Dan Campbell's ever-entertaining Lions.
Seahawks-Texans: The bad Monday night kickoff (10pmET) is still a pretty sweet matchup between two of the league's top-four teams in overall point differential.
Jaguars-Rams: An actually good matchup in London? In this economy?
Cowboys-Commanders: The Cowboys are the league's only team since 2020 to score and allow north of 60 combined points per game. Absolute cinema … for everyone other than Cowboys fans.
Chargers-Colts: The Colts' Week 2 win over the Broncos was awesome … but they've otherwise only toppled the lowly Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, and Cardinals. Sunday should help give us a better clue with just how real one of the league's best early-season surprises really is.
49ers-Falcons: Kyle Shanahan revenge game against a Falcons squad that ranks second in total yards per game on offense and first in fewest yards per game allowed on defense.
Broncos-Giants: A VERY real big-time test for Jaxson Dart. The takes will be HOT if he passes with flying colors.
Bengals-Steelers: I actually appreciate mediocre Thursday night football matchups. Now we just need the color rush jerseys back. Here's to hoping the Old Man QB Bowl turns into a classic AFC North rock fight. Sign me up!
Vikings-Eagles: Sadly this isn't moving the needle for me even with the Carson Wentz revenge game angle. This Eagles offense makes me want to unalive myself more weeks than not.
Cardinals-Packers: I am NOT a good gambler, but the Packers' status as 6.5-point favorites feels about 30 points too low.
Chiefs-Raiders: Kansas City's offense is fun again and getting back Rashee Rice, so that's cool. Unfortunately, the only cool things in Las Vegas these days are Maxx Crosby, Ashton Jeanty, and no state income tax.
Titans-Patriots: This Mike Vrabel revenge game special has all the ingredients of a blowout, so Cam Ward and company will naturally probably turn it into an ugly one-score back-and-forth affair.
Bears-Saints: Da Bears have ripped off three straight wins and are favored to capture their fourth unless the NFC's worst team in overall point differential (-49) has something to say about it.
Jets-Panthers: You get it.
Browns-Dolphins: Week-low 40-point game total. Would a loss to the lowly Browns be the final straw for the Mike McDaniel era?

10. Three Bold Calls for Week 7

And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Bijan Robinson to have a big game, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (usually in the form of my weekly mismatch charts):

1. Tee Higgins catches his stride, goes 7-110-1 on Thursday night football. The aforementioned man-coverage upside here is combined with (hopefully) improved play from Joe Flacco now that he's had more than a few days to learn the team's playbook. It'd make sense if Jalen Ramsey spends most of his time across from Ja'Marr Chase, leaving Higgins to take advantage of a secondary that has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season.

2. Bill Croskey-Merritt balls the hell out, racks up 150 total yards and two touchdowns. Playing the Cowboys. Enough said.

3. JK Dobbins crushes the Giants at Mile High, gains triple-digit yards and scores twice. The veteran RB checks all the boxes: Dobbins is good at football (RB9 in rush yards over expected per carry), is in a great spot with the potential for plenty of positive game-script (TD favorite at home), and has a winnable matchup (Giants are a bottom-10 defense in rushing yards allowed to RBs). Add it all together, and it'd make a lot of sense if Dobbins turns in his fifth top-20 performance of the season on Sunday afternoon.

Last week: Davante Adams (4-39-0) in fact did not ball the hell out, Tetarioa McMillan did in fact find the end zone (twice!), but his 29 yards fell quite short of 100, and the Brian Thomas Jr. cold streak did indeed end courtesy of an 8-90-1 receiving performance, although it would be a lot cooler if Travis Hunter knew how to line up correctly. As always: We will watch the film and get better.

Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 7 and beyond!