5 Players Who Won't Break Out In Fantasy Football 2026: Justin Herbert, Luther Burden And More

This was not my idea. I want to be clear about that.

I didn't suddenly wake up one morning and say to myself, "Hey, you know what would be cool? Writing an article trying to take down some of the most popular breakout candidates in fantasy football for 2026."

No … this was my editor's idea. Specifically, Joe Metz. If you have any sort of complaints about this article, I encourage you to reach out to him directly. His personal email address is XXXXXXXXX.

[Editor's Note: I have removed my email address to protect my sanity. Signed, Joe Metz.]

Of course, if you like this article (and you just might, you sicko), feel free to inform my ultimate overlord of this fact.

His name is Matthew Berry. You've probably heard of him. His content and fantasy football rankings you can now find at Fantasy Life.

Anyway, how did I get in this unfortunate spot?

Last week, I boldly decided to publish a Freedman's Fades as a negative/realistic supplement to my Freedman's Favorites.

Here's the thing: Even though I'm a walking wet blanket, I hate publicly taking a stand against an NFL player, because if he goes off, the fanbase of that guy's NFL team will remind me of that missed call for years.

And that could especially be the case with this article, where I take a stand against dudes widely hyped as breakout candidates. (By the way, Joe compiled the list of guys I'm discussing in this piece. Again, blame him.)

But no player is perfect. Every guy has potential paths to fantasy failure, and so we should look at everyone through a lens of falsification, especially those getting hype.

And so in this piece I want to explore each player's various avenues to misadventure. Phrased differently: If these guys fail, I want to attempt to anticipate why.

With that in mind, here are five breakout candidates—as determined by Joe, remember—who won't, in fact, break out … or who at least might underperform relative to their cost (based on our fantasy football ADP draft board) in redraft, best ball, and Guillotine Leagues^TM.

To see more players I'm low on, check out our fantasy football rankings, accessible with the FantasyLife+ package (20% discount available with the promo code FREEDMAN).

2026 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates Who Won't Break Out

Justin Herbert | QB | Chargers

Joe really must hate me, because I don't want to say anything bad about Justin Herbert.

He had a career-high 498 yards rushing last year, and this year his overall situation is better: Injured OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt should return to health, new OC Mike McDaniel should be an upgrade over former playcaller Greg Roman, and Herbert's young supporting homegrown players—WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris, TE Oronde Gadsden and RB Omarion Hampton—should continue to develop.

Plus, the offense should be deeper with the offseason additions of veterans TE Charlie Kolar and David Njoku, RB Keaton Mitchell and FB Alec Ingold.

The Chargers offense could be legitimately good this season.

In 2021, Herbert passed for 5,014 yards in his second year, and now he has a coordinator who coaxed a league-high 4,624 yards passing out of QB Tua Tagovailoa in 2023.

Herbert's ceiling is undeniable. At DraftKings, he has the fourth-best odds (along with Patrick Mahomes and Drake Maye) to win MVP.

But he also has a diminished floor that most people seem to be overlooking.

McDaniel will be Herbert's fourth playcaller in five years and fifth in seven. At some point, that year-to-year discontinuity could hurt him.

Additionally, McDaniel's system might be overrated. Over the years, the offense grew less dynamic as playmaking No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill aged. And within seasons, the offense tailed off as campaigns progressed and opposing DCs got more tape to analyze.

Plus, HC Jim Harbaugh and McDaniel are an undeniably quirky pairing. It makes for great social media, and it could make for outstanding chemistry, but the combination of Harbaugh's ball-control mindset and McDaniel's fast-paced tendencies could also cause an explosion … and not in a good way.

On top of that, while I like Herbert's skill-position support, he has no proven true No. 1 WR, and McDaniel himself might throttle the offense down with all the heavy personnel packages he can now run with Gadsden, Kolar, Njoku and Ingold. On the one hand, that could be a net positive for the Chargers. On the other hand, that could be a net negative for Herbert.

Although he had a good rushing campaign last year, Herbert isn't truly a runner, and if I'm not drafting a guy because of his legs, then I want him to have a realistic chance to pass for 5,000 yards.

Herbert has the talent to do it, and McDaniel probably has the playcalling and scheming chops to help him get there … but across six seasons no NFL QB of Harbaugh's has passed for even 4,000 yards.

If Herbert has a season in line with the 3,870 and 3,727 yards he has thrown over the past two years, his investors will surely be disappointed.

And right now we have Herbert at 3,833 yards in our 2026 fantasy football player projections.

For a breakout candidate, that's not ideal.

Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto

Jonathon Brooks | RB | Panthers

I hate to say it, but this one's easy.

I like Jonathon Brooks as a cheap-ish upside selection, but it's not hard to imagine an underwhelming performance this year.

Let's start with the obvious: He's coming off two right ACL tears and has 9 NFL carries to his name over a two-year career. Brooks simply might not have the juice he displayed in college in 2023 as a 20-year-old junior before suffering his first major knee injury (1,425 yards, 11 TDs in 11 games).

That player might be gone.

On top of that, he must compete with No. 1 RB Chuba Hubbard, who has been with the team for five seasons and put up back-to-back 1,300-yard campaigns in 2023-24. Hubbard isn't a great player, but his three-down skill set (622 carries, 137 targets over the past three years) and all-around reliability will make him hard to sideline entirely.

Finally, there's the sad fact that Brooks is on the Panthers. Maybe they'll take a massive step forward in 2026 … but I'm skeptical. QB Bryce Young has improved each season of his three-year career, and in 2025 he was still just No. 31 in passing efficiency (6.2 AY/A).

I have the Panthers projected with a bottom-3 offense (20.7 points), and as Dwain McFarland (our Director of Analytics) notes in his recent study on what matters for RBs in fantasy football, it's rare for a truly difference-making RB to emerge from a bad team.

And even though they made the playoffs last year, I still think the Panthers are a bad team.

Parker Washington | WR | Jaguars

I get all the hype Parker Washington is getting.

He entered the league in 2023 as a lowly sixth-round selection, but he has improved every year of his career (6.3 yards per target, 7.6, 8.9), and last season he was actually the No. 1 WR for the Jaguars (58-847-5 receiving, 95 targets) while displaying inside-outside utility and playmaking punt-return ability (25-341-2).

Despite needing to compete for targets with WRs Brian Thomas, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter, the ascending Washington could have a 1,000-yard breakout in 2026.

But that last sentence kind of says it all: He needs to compete for targets with Thomas, Meyers and Hunter.

Even if Washington actually were the most talented WR of the four (and he might be), it's possible that HC Liam Coen could still choose to use a fantasy-damaging rotation.

Plus, there's a chance (however small we might think it is) that Washington is the least talented of the four: Thomas was a four-star recruit who dominated as an SEC junior (68-1,177-17 receiving) and then balled out as a rookie (87-1,282-10 receiving, 133 targets). Meyers had an obscene 95% route rate in his final eight games after his midseason trade to the Jaguars, who gave him a three-year, $60M contract extension with $30M guaranteed. And Hunter in 2024 won the Heisman Trophy and Fred Biletnikoff Award (96-1,258-15 receiving, 13 games) before being selected No. 2 in the 2025 NFL Draft.

If Thomas bounces back to his rookie form, Meyers is his typical 800-yard self, and Hunter improves, there probably won't be enough room in the Jaguars offense for Washington to enjoy a true breakout.

Matthew Berry's Fantasy Football Rankings

Luther Burden | WR | Bears

Looking at all the mock drafts I've done in our 2026 Fantasy Life Draft Champion, I've taken Luther Burden … counting … zero times.

Ugh.

I really don't think of myself as being low on Burden, but I definitely haven't prioritized him in drafts, and I'm the lowest on him in our Fantasy Life ranks.

He had a modest-looking rookie campaign (47-652-2 receiving, 60 targets), but his usage (45 targets) and production (481 yards receiving) picked up in the final eight games after he returned from injury in Week 10, and for the season he was the No. 8 WR in efficiency (10.9 yards per target).

The No. 1 WR in the 2022 recruitment class, Burden exploded as a college sophomore with 86-1,212-9 receiving. He could similarly enjoy a second-year NFL breakout in 2026, especially if franchise QB Caleb Williams improves in his second season with HC Ben Johnson.

But it feels bearish (so to speak) that Burden took so long last year to overtake WR Olamide Zaccheaus, who still out-targeted him for the season (65 vs. 60). And it's definitely less than ideal that in the playoffs Burden was still the No. 4 option in the pass game (per our Utilization Score and Utilization Report).

TE Colston Loveland: 29% target share | 96 Utilization Score
WR DJ Moore: 17% target share | 73 Utilization Score
WR Rome Odunze: 14% target share | 49 Utilization Score
WR Luther Burden: 14% target share | 44 Utilization Score

Even with Moore and Zaccheaus gone, it's hard to imagine Burden earning a large share of the targets in a competition with Loveland and Odunze.

And really the key for me is Loveland.

Like Burden, he's a second-year player who could have a massive season in 2026. Just look at what he did in the postseason, when he emerged as a total target-hogging stud.

This might be simplistic, but I doubt there will be room in this offense for two pass catchers to go off with difference-making campaigns, so if I can pick only one of these guys, it's Loveland.

No question, that guy is breaking out this year.