Aaron Rodgers Signs With Steelers: Fantasy Football Impact on George Pickens and DK Metcalf

The longtime Packers franchise QB, four-time MVP, and … ex-Jets signal-caller … has a new home: Aaron Rodgers has signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers on a _-year deal worth _ million with _ million guaranteed. Not too shabby for a 41-year-old veteran still just one year removed from a devastating torn Achilles.

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Aaron Rodgers Signs with Pittsburgh Steelers: Instant Reaction

On the one hand, Rodgers' best years of his career are certainly in the rear-view mirror. From EPA per dropback (+0.057, 19th), to success rate (44.3%, 24th), and completion percentage over expected (-2.6%, 30th): Life wasn't easy for Rodgers when throwing the football last season despite having what sure looked like one of the league's better WR duos on paper.

On the other hand, that doesn't mean A-aron isn't capable of providing an improvement relative to what the Steelers have been dealing with in the post-Big Ben era. The man still throws a rather b-e-a-utiful hail mary and should still be capable of spinning a catchable ball from the pocket given adequate protection.

Of course, that latter variable is hardly guaranteed in Pittsburgh. PFF's 27th-ranked group from last season must replace starting G James Daniels as well as LT Dan Moore. They did deal with plenty of injuries; just realize this offense ranked 25th in yards before contact per rush and 29th in pressure rate. That's nearly as bad as the situation that Rodgers just left!

Consider: The Jets finished last year ranked 18th in "Supporting Cast Rating" while the Steelers finished … 19th.

Fantasy Football Impact for George Pickens and DK Metcalf with Aaron Rodgers

It'd make sense if the newfound presence of DK Metcalf makes life easier for this Arthur Smith-led passing game in 2025, although it's not like WR firepower was an issue for Rodgers in New York with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams serving as one of the league's better one-two punches at the position.

Here's my biggest concern: It was almost astonishing how bad things were for the Jets, even with the benefit of a good situation.

The below chart denotes every QB's EPA per dropback and explosive pass play rate on straight dropbacks from clean pockets—and Rodgers is down there in the bottom-left quadrant around some not-so-great company.

Look for Rodgers to still manage to hit more than a few pretty deep balls to Metcalf and George Pickens–Arthur Smith has always done a good job with the play-action deep ball dating back to his days with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee–but those flashes might not be enough to engineer oodles of fantasy football goodness. Overall, Mike Tomlin and Smith's Steelers offense posted a -6% dropback rate over expected mark last season, making them the fourth most run-heavy group in the league.

Ultimately, Rodgers is going to be more of a streamer/late-round option in 2025 fantasy drafts alongside guys like Geno Smith and Matthew Stafford. There's a case to be made that simply using a final-round pick on one of these guys in single-QB leagues is better than devoting an earlier-round selection to similar archetypes like Tua Tagovailoa or Jared Goff (long live the late-round QB strategy!), but then again the expected lack of high-end volume and potential for Father Time to make things worse isn't an ideal combination in fantasy land.

As for Metcalf and Pickens, getting Rodgers under center is up there with Sam Darnold as probably their best-case 2025 solution. The same overall volume problems will likely keep both instigators as more of boom-or-bust WR3 types anyway, but it's at least a win relative to if they were forced to deal with an even more run-heavy offense with someone like Justin Fields under center.

Oh yeah, and the real-life Steelers takeaway? Something like a 9-8, 10-7 regular season finish with an early-round playoff exit seems on the table inside the ever-competitive AFC North. Surely that sort of performance would be enough to keep the fanbase happy, right? RIGHT?

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