Alec Pierce Injury Update: What His Absence Means For Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and Fantasy Football
Fantasy

Alec Pierce Injury Update: What His Absence Means For Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and Fantasy Football

With news that recently paid Colts WR Alec Pierce could be sidelined through training camp and into the preseason, how should we approach Pierce and his fellow Indy pass catchers in fantasy drafts?

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After receiving a healthy four-year, $114 million contract extension, Alec Pierce is set to play a massive role for the Indianapolis Colts, potentially emerging as the team’s top target. 

As long as he can stay on the field, of course.

Pierce underwent ankle surgery in March and according to Stephen Holder of ESPN, he could be out into training camp and even past the preseason. While there’s nothing to suggest Pierce won’t be ready for Week 1, we can still file that under “things you don’t want to see.” With Michael Pittman Jr. in Pittsburgh and the Colts doing next to nothing to add to their wide receiver room this offseason, Josh Downs and Tyler Warren will be the focal point of the Indianapolis passing attack for the time being. This news is likely to lead to Pierce’s fantasy football ADP plummeting over the summer, but is he still someone to target in fantasy drafts? And what should we make of the rest of this offense?

Let’s discuss.

IND_colts-logo.svgAlec Pierce 2026 Fantasy Football Outlook

Mainly a vertical target in his NFL career, Pierce took a step forward last season, setting career-best marks in targets (84), receptions (47) and receiving yards (1,003) in 15 games. His huge play potential was evident, as Pierce was one of only two receivers since 2018 to have 1,000 yards on fewer than 50 receptions. And among all wideouts from last season, Pierce ranked:

  • 1st in air yards/target (18.9)
  • 2nd in yards per target (11.9)
  • 2nd in yards per catch (21.3)
  • 4th in targets of 20-plus air yards (24)

23% of Pierce’s routes were go routes and since 2023, no player in football is averaging more yards per catch than Pierce (20.2). He’s been really, really good in his field-stretching role, but because such a high percentage of his looks are deep down the field, it hasn’t translated to consistent usage. During that aforementioned three-year span, Pierce is averaging just under five targets and 6.7 fantasy points per game, both of which rank outside the top-45 receivers. 

As long as he’s healthy, that usage should increase. 

The Colts moved on from Pittman Jr., who made such a living off schemed, intermediate targets over the middle of the field. And he’s especially benefited from being the focal point of Shane Steichen’s RPO-centric passing attack. Pittman’s 14 RPO targets were good for the third-most in football last season. Those are often designed, quick-hitting passes that are only made for one pass-catcher. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a handful of those looks go towards the direction of Pierce in 2026.

Already a volatile player, Pierce now suddenly carries more risk given the ankle injury. But he’s currently being drafted as WR36, which will likely only drop over the next few weeks. It’s best to view Pierce as a WR3/FLEX with upside to finish as a top-20 wideout if his role expands following a hefty payday.

IND_colts-logo.svgJosh Downs and Tyler Warren Fantasy Football Outlook

The Colts' passing game projects to be very concentrated in 2026. 

Any potential Pierce absence would only make it more condensed. 

We have a 140-route sample of Warren playing with both Pittman Jr. and Pierce off the field during his rookie year. In that split, Warren was targeted on nearly 25% of routes, while posting a 21% target share. He’s already a candidate to see more designed looks without Pittman, plus we’d likely be even more excited about him heading into his sophomore season if the Colts didn’t lose Daniel Jones in the second half of last year.

Downs, meanwhile, is the more interesting player. We should expect Downs to run more overall routes this season, which is exciting considering he commands targets when he’s on the field. Among wideouts with at least 100 routes last season, Downs ranked 11th in TPRR vs man coverage (29%). The absence of Pittman should open up more opportunities for Downs, who didn’t play when the Colts were in two-wide sets last season. Last season, Downs ran just 17 routes out of 12 personnel, which ranked outside the top-100 wideouts in football. But in that very small sample size, Downs was targeted seven times. No matter what the personnel or situation, Downs simply earns targets. 

If Pierce misses any time, it would solidify Downs’ playing time, though it could impact his efficiency. Because Downs does much of his work in the short area of the field, having an awesome vertical threat on the outside to give him room to operate is helpful. Still, I love Downs as a late-round receiver regardless of Pierce’s status.

This will be a situation to keep tabs on over the course of the summer. And if the ankle issue doesn’t seem to improve, it shouldn't shock anyone to see the Colts sign a veteran wide receiver to help out. Especially when their wide receiver room after Pierce and Downs consists of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Ashton Dulin, Deion Burks and Laquon Treadwell.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Alec Pierce
    AlecPierceQ
    WRINDIND
    PPG
    10.7
    Proj
    156.9
  2. Josh Downs
    JoshDowns
    WRINDIND
    PPG
    6.7
    Proj
    130.7
  3. Tyler Warren
    TylerWarren
    TEINDIND
    PPG
    8.7
    Proj
    156.5

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