Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Falcons -3.0
• Total: 43.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): ATL 23, BAL 20

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview

Offensive dynamics obviously change greatly without two-time MVP Lamar Jackson commanding things. Once more, it’s Tyler “Snoop” Huntley filling in as the next man up — and while he does possess a Pro-Bowl appearance on the ledger, his recent substitution experiences leave much to be desired. In seven total starts for BAL going back to 2022, Huntley’s averaging 11.0 fantasy points/game with three games below 10 and not one above 17. However, from a narrower perspective, the passing macros in two starts last season stood strong enough to keep the buses on schedule (0.33 EPA/dropback, 78.6% completion, 111.6 passer rating, 7.0 yards/attempt). However, it was only 24.5 dropbacks/game, so volume’s low, and there’s no replacing the goat.

Baltimore’s rush rate historically jumps over 6% when Lamar’s absent, which makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to protect a backup and happen to have one of the greatest RBs of all time lurking in the backfield. As if Derrick Henry needed a boost whatsoever, get ready for one anyway — The King's averaging a ridiculous 28.5 rushes, 143.5 rush yards, and 3 TDs per game (!!!) in those same two Snoop Huntley starts in 2025. Hard to forget the Week 17 annihilation of Green Bay, when Henry dropped a 45-burger for fantasy managers (36-216-4).

So that means it’s time to make some popcorn, as unstoppable force meets immovable object — Atlanta’s a top-3 rush defense by almost any observable metric (0.31 EPA/rush, 71.8% success rate, 2.7 yards/attempt, 2.27 yards after contact/rush, 0 +20-yard carries). In fact, no RBs rushed for more than 53 yards or gained over 35 through the air. Strength on strength.

No one knows how a target tree will shake out anytime we change a QB, but my expectation’s more of the same, just a little bit less of it. Huntley prefers targeting his TEs or the slot, so both Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers should hold serve through the transition. In fact, each boasts a +28% target/route rate with Huntley under center.    

• Start: RB Derrick Henry, WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews
• Sit: QB Tyler Huntley, WR Rashod Bateman
• Sleeper: WR Elijah Sarratt

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

It's a little early in the season to be splitting stats for signals, but sometimes there’s a change too tangible to ignore. In two games with Cooper Rush, Atlanta's metrics went from horrific, near the bottom of the board (8.0 PPG, 4.2 yards/play, 38.7% success rate, -0.43 EPA/snap) to flying high amidst the league’s most prolific squads (40.0 PPG, 7.5 yards/play, 60.7% success rate, +0.34 EPA/snap). So even if ATL can’t sustain the recent greatness, they’re an order of magnitude better with Michael Penix Jr. under center.

Few teams make fantasy much easier than the Falcons. Bijan Robinson’s handling 24.8 touches/game at 6.2 yards/touch (do the math on that), and only Christian McCaffrey’s earned a higher team target share (18.9%). Atlanta’s flying so high, they managed to get two different B.Robinsons into the top-8 last weekend.

Pass catching’s almost as easy to discern in the dirty, dirty. Alpha WR Drake London’s posting 145.0 yards/game with Penix at the helm, on the back of some outrageous advanced metrics (34.8% target/route, 6.30 yards/route). Once Bijan and London are fed, there’s hardly any room for other secondary players to produce  — Kyle Pitts (3-47-0) and Jahan Dotson (2-54-1) each did a little bit on Monday, but I’d wait to consider them down the road in softer matchups …

• Start: QB Michael Penix Jr., RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London
• Sit: TE Kyle Pitts
• Sleeper: WR Jahan Dotson

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Atlanta wins decisively in a low-scoring contest, but leaves everyone who watched feeling unsatisfied with what could have been if Lamar suited up.