Auction Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Risers, Fallers, and New Additions

As soon as you participate in your first auction league (and yes, we have a tool for custom auction values!), snake drafts instantly become a thing of the past. Especially for experienced fantasy gamers with opinions on nearly every player, salary cap drafts create an opportunity to roster any player your heart desires, in nearly every combination.

Staying on top of dynamic player markets can make or break your draft plan. So I took the liberty of digging through all of this year’s high-stakes auction data, split before and after August 1st, for the largest risers, fallers, and new additions to the pool.

(All Auction/AAV data per NFFC)

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Four Players’ Average Auction Value Rose $4+ After August 1st

Omarion Hampton, RB, LAC 📈: $20 to $28 = +$8

Chargers’ brass insist RB Najee Harris’s unfortunate fireworks accident will not threaten his status or season. That and three bucks will get you on the subway—rational doubts continue to grow as kickoff approaches.

Every day without seeing Harris’s face (no pun intended) pushes rookie Omarion Hampton higher. From an ADP perspective, that’s a move from roughly the late-4th into the middle of the 3rd. Sure, where do I sign? At this pace, expect the price increase to continue weekly.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB 📈: $6 to $11 = +$5

No rookie’s generated more camp buzz than this year’s 19th overall pick, WR Emeka Egbuka. Seems like every day Tampa Bay’s coaches, players, and reporters can’t refrain from gushing about Egbuka after practice.

Mix in the fact that “there’s a chance Chris Godwin (ankle) could miss a couple of games to start the season,” and the former Buckeye’s current $11 AAV stands to profit early and often. Starting to get the feeling Emeka Egbuka’s one of this year’s essentials.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, SF 📈: $13 to $17 = +$4

With Brandon Aiyuk already on the shelf, news of Jauan Jennings’s calf injury shot Ricky Pearsall’s AAV up immediately. Experiencing his first professional offseason without being shot at close range, Pearsall looks to build off a phenomenal two-game close to 2024 (14-210-2). In an offense with top-five potential, seventeen bucks still feels like a deal for a potential target leader in Kyle Shanahan’s system.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE 📈: $9 to $13 = +$4

Drake Maye’s Patriots can’t seem to stop the hype train from rolling. I can promise you one thing: if TreVeyon Henderson’s usage and production keep up at this level through the preseason, he will be this year’s highest riser in terms of percentage.

New England’s second-round pick led the backfield in first-team touches, earning three targets (3-12-0) on just five routes run. Henderson also popped off an explosive 18-yard carry in his only attempt for a great finish to a pro debut.

I haven’t drafted Henderson to this point, worried that Rhamondre Stevenson could be a 50/50 threat. That’s gone by the wayside for classic FOMO—and now I’m considering getting on board, even at the new price.

Two Players’ Minimum Auction Value Rose $5+ After August 1st

Rome Odunze, WR, CHI 📈: $3 to $10 = +$7

(Adjusts conductor’s hat) Choo-choo! Zero sell job needed here on Rome Odunze’s upside—Chicago’s sophomore headlined my earliest breakout article back in May.

Everything’s set up perfectly for a second-year breakout in a completely revamped and galvanized Ben Johnson scheme. The word shadowing Odunze at camp all summer? Unguardable…

Stefon Diggs, WR, NE 📈: $3 to $8 = +$5

Enough positivity. Stop inviting uncertainties into your fantasy life—avoid all irrational exuberance regarding contract disputes and injuries. Despite being bombarded on social media with beat reporters fawning over Stefon Diggs’s recovery, I’m out.

Sorry, not sorry. Entering his age-32 season, he’s old by NFL standards and will need volume to compile fantasy-viable numbers. If optimism over structural injuries is bad, compounding it for aging veterans is worse. Instead, sign me up at a similar cost for younger WRs with game-changing potential like Rome Odunze or Matthew Golden.

Four Players’ Average Auction Value Sank $5+ After August 1st

Rashee Rice, WR, KC 📉: $26 to $21 = -$5

No surprise to see Rashee Rice top the list of redraft fallers, as we all impatiently await news regarding his disciplinary case. Chances are, we can safely assume Rice will miss somewhere between three and six games. That said, when the suspension happens could matter as much as its length.

For example, if we knew he’d only miss three games to start the year, I’d equate this downslide to a massive discount. But what if things go sideways? For whatever reason, something gets caught in the wheels of justice, gumming up the works and causing the suspension to fall during the fantasy playoffs?

While I’m never out on a player at any price, either give me some certainty or a few more bucks off the top before I pull the trigger.

DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI 📉: $20 to $15 = -$5

It’s about time we disagreed with the drafting market at large and found ourselves a discount! Unlike the other players plummeting down boards, there’s no threat of suspension or injury setback. What do we have? The clear second target in a top-tier offense entering his physical prime with career stats to justify the original $20 pricetag.

Throughout his career, Smith’s gained over 1.9 yards per route run with an excellent 56.1% weighted opportunity share. There’s almost no chance the Eagles attempt fewer passes than 2024 or score as many long rushing TDs. All this adds up to positive opportunistic regression for a player who’s habitually gone in the second round. Give me all the DeVonta while it's on the clearance rack.

Joe Mixon, RB, HOU 📉: $11 to $6 = -$5

Joe Mixon started sliding down draft boards as soon as he was seen in a walking boot, only to worsen with the signing of Nick Chubb. NFL Insider Jordan Schultz reported the veteran RB will miss multiple weeks of training camp but would still somehow “be ready at some point during training camp.” Yeah, right.

Every conceivable tea leaf is screaming to get out on Joe Mixon while you can. No need to invite injuries onto our fantasy teams when we know they’ll find us soon anyway.

Players To Enter The Player Pool After August 1st

● A.J. Dillon, RB, PHI

● Christian Watson, WR, GB

● Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU

● Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU

● Devin Singletary, RB, NYG

● Harold Fannin, TE, CLE

● Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG

● Kayshon Boutte, WR, NE

● KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR, LAC

● Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, SEA

● Michael Mayer, TE, LV

● Phil Mafah, RB, DAL

● Roman Wilson, WR, PIT

● Theo Johnson, TE, NYG

● Tim Patrick, WR, DET

● Tyquan Thornton, WR, KC

While none of the new additions cracked my own personal redraft list, I thought it useful to know which players emerged into the pool. Most represent longshot stabs, likely to get cut before Week 2.

However, with all the confusion in the Dallas backfield, spending a last-round pick on big-bodied seventh-rounder Phil Mafah makes sense. The former Clemson Tiger toted the rock more than 200 times in 2024 and could find relevance if Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders turn out to be who we thought they were.