Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 1

• Spread: Ravens -3.5
• O/U: 47.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  BAL 25, IND 23

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview

It’s always a special day when Lamar Jackson suits up with a chance to redefine fantasy greatness. Don’t forget that before getting hurt in Week 4, Lamar was running away with the overall QB1, more than 3 full fantasy points per game ahead of Josh Allen. Ignore his potential to be the game’s highest scorer once more at your own risk. 

Plus, we get to see the playcalling debut of Declan Doyle, the 30-year-old wunderkind OC from the Ben Johnson coaching tree. Oh baby, I can’t wait. Expect the Ravens to attack Indy’s 5-DB blitz-forward, zone-heavy approach right over the middle. It’s arrow all the way up for Zay Flowers this weekend — Indy allowed the most receiving yards and second-most receptions to the slot in 2025. Big game incoming for Zay …

Also, the Colts' inability to tackle the ball carrier immediately (47.4% tackle success; 29th) led to a bottom-5 overall grade in defensive drive efficiency — not a great spot against a first-down creator like Jackson.

Indianapolis did do a great job stopping the run, however, before adding former Jet DE Michael Clemons, former Titan OLB Arden Key, or 53rd overall pick, LB CJ Allen. Especially interesting to see how persistent Baltimore will be running Derrick Henry between the tackles against a top-5 unit in terms of yards/carry (3.9) and explosive rush rate (5.4%).

Listen, you didn’t draft King Henry to sit him, but the risk of being scripted out of contests is very, very real. His snap share drops precipitously if the Ravens fall behind — the King posted seven different weekly finishes outside the top-20 for a reason. 

• Start: Zay Flowers (WR13), Derrick Henry (RB6), Lamar Jackson (QB1)
• Sit: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR73)
• Sleeper: Mark Andrews (TE11)

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Preview

Onto the Colts, I can’t believe I’m admitting this out loud … but it’s all about Daniel Jones. Yes, that Daniel Jones. The very one who ran out of New York with fans unceremoniously waiting in the parking lot just to boo him one last time. Don’t believe me? The numbers more than speak for themselves. Indy dropped from 7.2 yards/play (!) all the way down to 4.8 as their EPA/play took a full-on nose dive from +0.14 to +0.03 without DJ under center. And we all saw what happened to Jonathan Taylor’s season. Woof! 

By the numbers. Jones easily ranked among the most valuable players to his team in the NFL. Crazy world we live in, I know. According to all reliable and accredited reporting, Jones is currently practicing in full without restrictions or a brace, having undergone successful surgery just nine months ago to repair a ruptured right Achilles tendon. No clue if it’s black magic, peptides or medical advancements writ large — it’s likely time to reassess our injury timetables for fantasy purposes.

Speaking of injury returns, Alec Pierce’s offseason ankle repair and the shroud of darkness surrounding it should serve as a constant reminder — even though we have access to lots of information, it’s still not everything. Honestly, I shrugged off any real long-lasting severity when the Colts awarded the speedy wideout a 4-year, $114 million contract extension, coming off a season with the NFL’s third-most +20-yard targets (25). The matchup’s decent, and the Colts could be trailing late, but I’m not starting Pierce until I see a healthy complement of routes and/or targets earned.

Count me among the Josh Downs believers, though I’d be lying if I said the Keenan Allen signing didn’t irk me. Trying to tell myself a story that despite just 4% of his snaps coming from 2-WR sets, it’s Downs’ job going forward without Michael Pittman around. Surely, someone out there is rolling their eyes, insisting that’s why Keenan’s now a Colt, but I’d vehemently disagree — of his 467 routes run for the Chargers,  just 13 (or roughly 2%) occurred in 12-personnel. 

Start Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren if you can; Daniel Jones and Josh Downs if you must, but wait to roll out Alec Pierce at all costs — there’s no room for part-time players on a Week 1 roster.

• Start: Jonathan Taylor (RB4), Tyler Warren (TE3), Josh Downs (WR40)
• Sit: Alec Pierce (WR48)
• Sleeper: Daniel Jones (QB22)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• As predicted by some (ahem), Declan Doyle works his Johnson-esque magic to create more spacing than we’ve seen from these Ravens maybe ever. Zay Flowers WR1 SZN loading …
• Yes, Jonathan Taylor puts up RB1 output in a Colts loss. The spell is broken!