Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 1

When Ben Johnson announces he’s flat-out shooting for the NFL’s point record, I’m all ears. Will it happen? Frankly, I’m a bit skeptical … ever is a long time. No doubt the play calling’s going to be top-flight in terms of creativity, but when it comes right down to the nuts and bolts of it all, Caleb Williams’ accuracy presents a major issue for me.

So how bad are we talking? Well, it’s not good by any objective measure. Only Shedeur Sanders and J.J. McCarthy posted lower completion rates (ugh, awful list to be on), with Williams taking down the crown for the highest frequency of off-target throws among all starters (14.6%). Yikes. Not great, Bob. Just saying that having to wait until the end of the fourth quarter to make a miracle pass and save your fantasy day isn’t exactly the most sustainable strategy. 

Lucky for Chicago, the defensive matchup’s pretty soft outside of Jaycee Horn, which should force managers to reconsider starting Rome Odunze — especially after recent news about his other foot now hurting. Carolina finished bottom-3 in time of possession per drive allowed (3:11), three-and-outs forced (42), snaps/splash plays (4.0), QB hits/game (6.9), pressure rate (29.6%), and total sacks (30). Adding third-round rookie out of Texas Tech Lee Hunter should help, but how much? Who knows ...

With time to operate, the arrows should (and I stress SHOULD) point all the way up for Caleb Williams this weekend, with an extra emphasis on both Colston Loveland and Luther Burden — each boasted at least 2.09 yards/route and a +12% success rate versus zone coverage, which CAR ran at an extremely elevated rate (83.1%).

• Start: Colston Loveland (TE2), Luther Burden III (WR22), D’Andre Swift (RB17)
• Sit: Caleb Williams (QB12), Rome Odunze (WR30)

Carolina Panthers Fantasy Preview

On to Carolina, I’m out. Sorry, I fold. Somehow projected for 7.5 wins this season (?!?), I graded the black and silver cats out for less than half of that, explaining the roughly ~1% rostership rate of Panthers across my +300 teams. Yes, 300. Don't tell my wife. Thanks. 

The Panthers were wildly inefficient on offense in 2025 (-0.04 EPA/play, 1.8 points/drive, 45.4% success rate), featuring poor quarterback play plus a pretty brutal pass-catching room to boot, outside of alpha Tetairoa McMillan. 

Now if you drafted the former eighth overall pick, start him without hesitation. I get it. However, even with the Bears’ front-seven struggling mightily last season, the main weaknesses manifest against the run. My concern for fantasy Week 1? A boring, drag ‘em out dogfight starring very little verticality. Like it or not, Chuba Hubbard’s still the starter, even after famously producing exactly zero +20-yard runs in 134 attempts. Woof.

Despite overwhelming bearishness for the Panthers, there are two things I’m staying on high alert for, regardless of production. First is whether or not the slot utilization for Tet this preseason carries over into the regular season. Give me that one thing and my usually rigid opinion changes on a dime. In fact, McMillan could totally flop against Chicago yet leave me immediately interested in him as a buy-low target. If he manages ~17 slot routes with ~4 targets per game a la Amon-Ra St. Brown or DeVonta Smith, there’s an easy pathway to a WR1 fantasy finish. Talk about a Tet offensive.

The other fantasy elephant in the room’s obviously Jonathon Brooks, a player with perhaps the widest range of outcomes in the game. Talent’s at 99, but so is the injury bar. I actually bought into the profile/situation in best ball formats before the helium began, but could never quite square away a 6th/7th-round price tag. 

Entirely too many questions to be answered. Will Brooks even play? If so, how much? And if it’s enough to move the fantasy needle, can he last? My guesses are sadly yes, not much, and no, respectively. Easy to dream of outlier ascendance, but how realistic is it really?

• Start: Tetairoa McMillan (WR19)
• Sit: Chuba Hubbard (RB28), Bryce Young (QB26), Jalen Coker (WR46)
• Sleeper: Jonathan Brooks (RB36)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• A mixed bag from Caleb eventually wins the day for Chicago. Let’s say I’m not exactly over the moon with his accuracy come the final whistle; it’s just the combination of Loveland plus Burden can’t be stopped.
• Carolina looks disgraceful on offense, but I’m right for the wrong reason. Bryce Young winds up not being as bad as expected, except the offensive line certainly is — and some of those bottom-5 preseason grades look especially prescient.