Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 7

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Bears (4-2) vs. Patriots (4-2) Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 7

Spread: Bears -3.0
Total: 50.5
Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): CHI 26, NE 23

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview For Week 7

That boy is on fire! For the third week straight, Drake Maye scored more in a single week than he managed in the first three weeks combined. He’s also taken fewer sacks in these last three victories combined (2) than the three sacks eaten each of the first three weeks. Talk about the foundations for a turnaround to reassume an MVP trajectory. Maye’s a must-start, though on a crash course with a Bears’ secondary that’s very much all or nothing this season — they’ve allowed +361 yards through the air twice, but nothing above 225 in any of the other four.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Maye and the Patriots' recent run is the lack of breakout performances, particularly in the backfield. New England’s boasting just a single top-10 finish all season as a collective, ranking bottom-10 in EPA/rush (-0.14). The worst part? Our assumption of a singular takeover in case of injury to either Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson lived up to its name by making an ass of us. Yes, that’s correct: Corey Kiner (who) touched the ball at least seven times in each of his last three games — and we know what a third mouth to feed does to fantasy impact. In fact, it’s been an entire month since any RB has owned +58% of backfield opportunities in a single game. Time to worry …

A.J. Brown is back … Yay! Ugh, he only went 3-27-0 … Boo! But he ran 97% of routes, earning 10 targets … Yay! Except he dropped 20% of them … Boo! What a roller coaster ride. New England’s premier free agent went from potentially seeing limited snaps on Thursday to working without limitations in a hurry, so of course I recommended starting him where possible. Despite going just about as poorly as it could’ve, the utilization’s alone is going to keep him an automatic WR1 going forward.

Unfortunately, Romeo Doubs left the game (shoulder, IR) after crashing to the ground on a long TD reception, paving a path to weekly viability for DeMario Douglas — he’s the overall WR5 on solid advanced metrics (27.7% target/route, 3.21 yards/route) while playing a major role in the recent success. Last note: Kyle Williams ran more than triple the routes of Efton Chism after Doubs departed, and any increase in workload could finally make his upside too hard to deny. Perfect player to churn into your last roster spot.

Start: Drake Maye (QB1), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB23), A.J. Brown (WR9), DeMario Douglas (WR39), Hunter Henry (TE15)
Sit: TreVeyon Henderson (RB36)
Sleeper: Kyle Williams (WR77)

Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Preview For Week 7

Six weeks in and Chicago posed more questions than answers for fantasy gamers — a different QB under center every week will do that. Well, Caleb Williams came back, nature healed, and the Bears hung 31 points on a solid Atlanta defense in their own building. Usually worried about accuracy upon returning from injury, Caleb easily quelled those fears (83.3% completion, 2.8% off-target) via robust underpinning metrics (305 passing yards, 8.5 yards/attempt, 33.3% first-down rate). However, it wasn’t perfect. The lack of depth concerned me a bit (2.9 air yards/attempt, 22.2% throws to sticks), though it could easily be a function of the Falcons’ front four being so tough up front. Excited to see this Bears team find its true self.

Shout out to Ben Johnson, fantasy’s RB2 whisperer. In a league of 32 teams, of which five haven’t posted even one top-10 RB finish to date, Chicago’s the only team with three different backs to accomplish the feat. Much to the chagrin of D’Andre Swift managers hoping for a bellcow role without Kyle Monangai, the Bears showed us again yesterday you can start two in the same game. Make no mistake, Swift’s the lead runner in all phases — but whenever there’s drive-for-drive rotations on a team this good, it’s worth noticing. I’m assuming one more missed week for Monangai, which at least makes Roschon Johnson interesting with four more teams on bye Week 7.

Impossible to surmise this CHI receiver room in the time/spave I’ve got, but here goes nothing. Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland both earn automatic nods for route participation rates alone. Odunze’s production will be spotty, but 40 routes/game in this offense will bear fantasy fruit. Luther Burden’s clearly playing behind Kalif Raymond in 12-personnel (ugh), and despite putting in work on Sunday (8-95-0; 37.5% target/route, 5.50 yards/route), if a 35% route participation sticks into the future, there are disappointing games coming. Talent could and should win out, but we need to prepare for some frustration along the way.

Start: Caleb Williams (QB6), D’Andre Swift (RB9), Rome Odunze (WR37), Luther Burden (WR22), Colston Loveland (TE8)
Sit: Roshon Johnson (RB33)
Sleeper: Kalif Raymond (WR50)