Dark-Horse Candidates to Finish as a Top-5 QB: Look to the Legs of Kyler Murray and Bo Nix

Last week, I took a look at some of my favorite “sleeper” quarterbacks for fantasy football. Those were all guys going later in drafts who I believe have the potential to outperform their modest fantasy rankings. Quarterback is always a pretty deep position, but this year feels especially deep.

This article will take things in a bit of a different direction. Instead of looking for safer values, let’s hunt for some guys with big upside. We’re talking guys who aren’t being drafted as starters in 12-team leagues who have the potential to finish inside the top five at the position.

That’s obviously a high bar to clear, but it’s not impossible. For the most part, you can’t become a top-five fantasy quarterback without some solid rushing production. Only Matthew Stafford was able to finish in the top five in points per game at QB last season despite being a zero with his legs, and he needed to throw for 46 touchdowns and 4,707 yards.

That gives us a blueprint to look for. Let’s dive into three guys with enough rushing upside to potentially join the elite fantasy producers at the position.

Long-Shot Candidates to Finish as a Top-5 Fantasy QB

Kyler Murray | QB | MIN

Not too long ago, Kyler Murray was one of the poster boys for “dual threat” quarterbacks. He averaged more than 51 rushing yards per game back in 2020, when he finished second only to Josh Allen in terms of fantasy production.

That was Murray’s most-productive season, but it’s far from an outlier. Before last year, Murray had never finished outside the top 12 at the position in terms of fantasy points per game:

• 2019: 18.6 (QB11)
• 2020: 24.4 (QB3)
• 2021: 22.1 (QB4)
• 2022: 18.9 (QB7)
• 2023: 18.9 (QB8)
• 2024: 18.1 (QB12)

The biggest concern has always been health. Murray has been limited to eight games or fewer in two of the past three seasons, and he’s only played 16+ games in three of seven years.

A change of scenery could do wonders for Murray’s fantasy value. He went to Minnesota this offseason, which pairs him with an elite offensive head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who was unable to work his magic with J.J. McCarthy last year. But O'Connell has a long track record of getting the most out of his signal callers.

Perhaps more importantly, Murray will get to work with Justin Jefferson. Murray was at his best when leaning on an alpha WR1 in DeAndre Hopkins. While Jefferson isn’t the same exact type of receiver, he gives Murray his best pass-catcher in years. Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson aren’t bad for complementary pieces, either.

The most likely scenario is that Murray wont suit up for 17 games for the Vikings in 2026. But when he’s on the field? I expect him to produce like a fantasy stud. He’s one of my favorite options at the position currently, with a price tag of just QB17. 

Bo Nix | QB | DEN

It was a season full of ups and downs for Bo Nix last year. His overall numbers were not particularly impressive. He racked up fewer touchdown passes and averaged fewer adjusted yards per attempt than he did as a rookie, which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

However, Nix led his team to 14 wins during the regular season, and he got them to the AFC Championship. If he didn’t suffer an injury in the Divisional Round, it’s very possible that the Broncos would have made it to the Super Bowl. Nix also led the league with seven game-winning drives last season, so he typically brought his best when it mattered most.

Despite the slight downturn in statistical production, Nix was also still a pretty viable fantasy starter. He was QB7 overall and QB11 in fantasy points per game, and he provided just enough value with his legs. He averaged 20.9 rushing yards per game with five rushing scores after averaging 25.5 rushing yards per game as a rookie.

The Broncos offense was also sneaky-friendly for quarterbacks. They were third in Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) last year, and Nix led all quarterbacks in pass attempts.

Now, Nix has a shiny new toy to work with in Jaylen Waddle. The Broncos pass-catchers were underwhelming last year, but adding Waddle makes them a formidable unit. Courtland Sutton becomes a strong No. 2 receiver, while Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Pat Bryant have all flashed previously.

Add in a strong offensive coach in Sean Payton, and Nix could definitely improve on last year’s numbers. He has a chance to crack the top five if everything breaks right. 

Tyler Shough, QB, NO

I’m not afraid to admit it: I’m a certified Mother Shougher. What Tyler Shough did after taking over as the Saints’ starting QB last season should not be overlooked. He was working with far from an all-star team, but he averaged a very respectable 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt as a starter. He averaged more than 250 passing yards per game in that split to go along with 10 touchdown passes and three touchdown runs.

From a fantasy perspective, Shough was QB9 after taking over as the Saints’ starter (QB12 in points per game). Over his final five games, he was QB5.

Shough will have more at his disposal in his second season. The team added Jordyn Tyson with the ninth pick of the NFL Draft, who many believed was the most talented receiver in the draft class. They also signed Travis Etienne away from the Jaguars, and while he’s not an elite pass-catcher, he should make the offense more effective overall.

QBs also tend to make their biggest statistical jumps between their first and second seasons. We just saw that play out with Drake Maye, and while Shough isn’t nearly the same level of prospect, some level of progression should be expected.

It’s possible that what we saw from Shough last year was a mirage, but I’m willing to buy in at his current price tag. He’s merely QB20 in terms of fantasy ADP across the industry, and I have no issues starting him in the right matchups.