Fantasy Football Deep Dive on Christian Watson: The Packers' Clear WR1
Things look different in the Green Bay WR room going into this season—what does that mean for Christian Watson in fantasy football? Adam Pfeifer dives deep into the data to tell you whether to hit draft on this Packers receiver.
All offseason, the fantasy football community has been debating whether Jayden Reed or Matthew Golden will emerge as the Green Bay Packers' WR2. Both are intriguing, late-round upside swings, though there remains some uncertainty about their week-to-week role. There is no doubt, however, who the alpha in this offense will be.
It’s Christian Watson season, y’all.
For much of his career, Watson has flashed so much upside. Tons of touchdowns and fantasy points in certain stretches have unfortunately been paired with missed time due to injury. That was once again the case this past season when Watson returned halfway through the year following a late 2024 ACL tear. But Watson is now fully healthy, and following a four-year, $110.5 million contract extension, he is set to play the largest role of his career, not just for the Green Bay offense—but for fantasy teams as well.
A Sign Of What’s To Come
A 2024 late-season ACL tear sidelined Watson for the first seven games of last season, presenting serious risk as a fantasy option. But when he made his debut in Week 8, Watson wasted no time showing his immense upside. From Weeks 8-18, Watson ran 72% of the routes, while posting a 23% TPRR and 20% target share. During that stretch, Watson was the WR22 in fantasy points per game (13.2), but the underlying metrics prove that, with added volume, he can do so much more.
Watson Weeks 8-18:
- 17.5 Yd/Rec (2nd)
- 2.54 YPRR (8th)
- 11 plays of 20-plus yards (10th)
- 6 TDs (5th)
Despite ranking just 33rd in targets during that stretch (55), Watson ranked 14th in receiving yards (608), showcasing his huge play potential. Watson was fantasy’s WR21 on a PPG basis upon his return, while his 0.57 fantasy points per route were good for fifth-best among all wideouts. But keep in mind that Watson wasn’t always a full-time player during that stretch. He dealt with shoulder issues down the stretch, limiting him to just 56.3% of the routes from Weeks 15-17. If you look at the games where he ran at least 70% of the routes, Watson averaged closer to 15 PPR PPG.
Watson was once again mostly used down the field, ranking sixth in the league in aDOT from Week 8 on (18.0), while running go routes just under 22% of the time. Watson’s skill set is always going to lend itself to explosive plays deep down the field. But he can also do more than that.
And for the first time in his career, he’ll be asked to prove it.
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Christian Watson: WR1
If you are looking for the next breakout fantasy wideout, Watson checks seemingly every box. Talented player? Check. Fantasy-friendly offense? Yep. Vacated targets and routes? You bet. Good quarterback? I’d say so.
It’s time to roll.
The departure of both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks is going to have a massive impact. Though Watson has demonstrated serious potential throughout his career, it has unfortunately been on limited volume. Since entering the NFL in 2022, Watson has averaged just 4.73 targets per game, while never eclipsing a 20% target share. The Fantasy Life projections have Watson penciled in for closer to seven targets per game this season, as Green Bay’s usual wide receiver rotation will be much, much tighter this year. Doubs led the Packers with a 77% route rate last season, while Wicks was just over 50%. But overall, five Green Bay receivers ran at least half of the routes. That is going to be very condensed this upcoming season, while Doubs’ absence in particular could really benefit Watson.
We love touchdowns in fantasy football, right? I thought so. Watson has scored 20 touchdowns on 133 career receptions (15%) and could be in line for the most red zone work of his career. Both Watson and Doubs entered the league in 2022. Since then, Watson ranks 20th among receivers in end zone targets (33), with Doubs right behind him (29). And once Watson made his debut this past season, he and Doubs actually tied for the team lead in end zone target share (33%). Doubs also accounted for 32% of the Packers' targets from inside the 10-yard line, the eighth-highest rate in football. So Watson has essentially been splitting end zone looks with Doubs, yet still has scored plenty of touchdowns. And now Doubs is gone?
Sign me up.
Overall, Watson’s role seems ready to expand. We already know that while Reed and Golden compete for snaps in two-wide sets, Watson will be a staple. Doubs led the team in routes from 12 personnel during the second half of last season, but Watson was right behind him. With both Doubs and Wicks gone, Watson will always be on the field in 12 personnel, a grouping Matt LaFleur deployed 20 plays per game a year ago, the sixth-most in football. It also looks like Watson’s usage is set to change in 2026. Watson appears to be playing more of the ‘Z’ receiver role this season, which means more movement and designed looks. Dwain McFarland highlighted Watson’s encouraging preseason usage in his Week 2 Preseason Takeaways article (an absolute must-read), pointing out that he was used quite a bit in motion and play-action passes, two fantasy cheat codes for wide receivers.
More creative usage would be a welcome sight for Watson, who ranks just 64th among receivers in routes from motion since 2022 (108). LaFleur’s offense should lean on motion, helping Watson get more free releases and layup looks. Since 2020, Green Bay’s ranks in shift-motion:
- 2020: 50% (5th)
- 2021: 54% (5th)
- 2022: 57% (8th)
- 2023: 61% (5th)
- 2024: 70% (3rd)
- 2025: 59% (8th)
We mentioned how the lack of volume has held Watson (and most Green Bay pass-catchers) back in fantasy over the years. Playing in a WR rotation already hurts your target and route upside, but it’s even more difficult in a run-first offense. Over the past three years, the Packers have sported the league’s fourth-lowest neutral script pass rate (53%), while Jordan Love ranks 17th in dropbacks per game during that span (33.3). Given Love’s efficiency, it would be fun to see what this offense could look like if he threw the football more.
But what if that’s this season?
This time last year, the Packers looked like one of the best defenses in all of football. And that carried over into the season. But everything changed in Week 15. Green Bay lost Micah Parsons to a torn ACL, and from that point on, this once vaunted defense suddenly became one to attack.
During the final four weeks of the year (including the playoffs), Green Bay’s defense fell apart. With Parsons off the field, the Packers posted a 3.7% sack rate, compared to 7.3% with Parsons on the field. And with Parsons sidelined for the final four weeks of the season, Green Bay allowed over 28 points per game. That resulted in the Packers' pass rate when leading by four-plus points climbing to 62%, the fifth-highest rate in football. For reference, from Weeks 1-15 with Parsons healthy, that pass rate was down at 52% (18th).
Entering the 2026 campaign, it appears the earliest possible date we could see Parsons return is Week 6, which means Green Bay’s passing rate might climb quite a bit during the first half of the season. And an uptick in potential targets for Watson is exciting. Again, we project Watson to average 6.7 targets per game this upcoming season. There have been 20 regular season games in Watson’s career where he’s seen at least six targets. In those games, Watson has averaged 66 receiving yards and 14.9 PPR PPG. For reference, 14.9 PR PPG would have been good for WR10 last season, albeit in a down year for the wide receiver position. That still would have been good for WR17 in 2024.
Should You Draft Christian Watson?
If he can stay healthy (yes, that is a concern), Watson legitimately has top-15 upside this season. Yet he’s still being drafted as the WR29 over on Underdog, and I’ve done drafts on other platforms where Watson has been a bench receiver.
Yes, please.
I understand some skeptics point to Watson’s injury track record, which is rather lengthy. ACL tear, ankle sprain, hamstring strains, knee bruise, etc. Some may see that resume and think “injury prone.” But every player in the NFL is injury prone.
Until they’re not.
My excitement in Watson’s talent and opportunity outweighs any potential injury concerns. And far too many times in fantasy, our “glass half empty” mindset wins. “What if Watson gets hurt?”
But what if he doesn’t? That’s something I’m excited to find out.
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