Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 10 Betting Market Data
Fantasy

Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 10 Betting Market Data

Matt LaMarca dishes out a trio of fantasy football predictions by leveraging sharp money action in the Week 10 betting market.

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One of my favorite parts about fantasy football is that we’re allowed to cheat off the smart kids in class. Fantasy may feel like a huge game, but it’s nothing compared to the amount of money exchanged at the sportsbook each week.

The good news for fantasy is that we can use the betting data to make some informed decisions. When the sharp bettors have a position on a certain game, we can adjust our rankings accordingly.

That’s the purpose of this piece. Each week, I’m going to dive into some of the data available in the betting space to highlight a few spots that could be overlooked by the general fantasy public. Let’s dive right in.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Predictions Leveraging Betting Market Data

No Puka, No Problem

The bodies continue to pile up in Los Angeles. Puka Nacua was the latest casualty, and he’s expected to join Davante Adams on the IR. He’s dealing with a trio of injuries (turf toe and a sprained MCL and PCL), leaving the Rams extremely thin on offense. Nacua leads the NFL with a 37% target share for the year, while Adams has posted a 21% mark in his six games.

That could spell trouble for the Rams moving forward, but it probably won’t hurt them this week. They’re taking on the Cardinals in Week 10, and while Arizona has already beaten the Rams once this season, that was a much different team. Specifically, they had Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in that contest, and he has since been traded to the Ravens. Rookie third-rounder Carson Beck will make his NFL debut this week, and it’s hard to imagine a much tougher matchup. Myles Garrett looked as good as ever in his return to the lineup last week, and he should make life a living hell for the rookie.

The sharps have been all over the Rams in this spot, probably because of their defense. However, the offense still has the potential to be productive. Kyren Williams should see a boost in responsibilities at running back, while Konata Mumpfield and Tutu Atwell are interesting punt plays at WR3 or flex. Tyler Higbee could also see a few additional targets, putting him right on the fringe of TE1 status.

Shootout In Munich?

The sharps are seeing much more value with the under than the over this week. Most of the professional action has come in on that side, but the game in Munich stands out as an exception. They’ve pushed this total all the way up as high as 51.5 at some locations, and only 49ers-Cowboys has a higher total this week.

The Lions’ defense has shown some serious signs of improvement of late, allowing 17 points or fewer in three straight games. However, two of those games have come against the Vikings and Dolphins. The Packers were the only above-average unit they faced during that stretch, and they still allowed 324 yards.

Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defense has looked toothless in recent weeks. They surrendered 45 points to the Packers last week, and the Bears managed 30 against them two weeks prior.

Offensively, both of these teams can do serious damage. The Lions are seventh in EPA per play this season, while the Patriots are third in that metric from Week 4 on. It creates a very appealing environment for fantasy purposes.

For the Lions, all the usual suspects are in play. They really have just four fantasy-relevant skill-position players – Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta – and all four are slam-dunk starters.

The Patriots are a bit more interesting. Corey Kiner looks like one of the big free agent targets this week, and he’s a clear RB2 as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is sidelined.

Hunter Henry is a strong option at tight end. The wide receiver position will depend a lot on A.J. Brown. If he’s out once again, guys like DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins could both have some viability.

The Jets Are Better Than You Think

Same old Jets? Well, kind of. It’s true that they’re just 2-7 through the first nine weeks, and they continue to have minimal organizational stability. Aaron Glenn is a clear lame duck at head coach, and the team will be looking for new options at coach and QB for seemingly the 50th consecutive offseason.

That said, the roster that this team has built is talented. No team has underperformed its expected record compared to its individual PFF grades by a larger margin. They have strong options at wide receiver, running back, and on defense, while Geno Smith has been far from terrible at QB. They simply need their head coach to stop sabotaging the team before the half.

The sharps are optimistic about the Jets’ chances this week vs. the Bills. They’re getting more than a touchdown at home, and the Jets have been one of the most heavily targeted sides by the professional bettors.

For fantasy purposes, the Jets should be able to do some things vs. the Bills' defense. Buffalo looked good last week vs. the Vikings, but Minnesota has been an abject disaster on offense all season. They were 30th in defensive EPA per play through the first six weeks of the year, and they allowed at least 29 points in five of those contests.

Breece Hall returned to the lineup for the Jets last week, and he immediately stepped back into the top RB role on the squad. Braelon Allen is going to keep Hall from being a clear bell cow, but he’s still an easy RB2 in this matchup.

At receiver, Garrett Wilson is the team’s No. 1 choice if he’s back in the lineup. He missed last week’s game, which allowed Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper to take on larger roles. Both guys would be clear starters at receiver if Wilson is inactive again, but they’d still have some appeal even if he’s back.

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