WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 10 Fantasy Football: Drake London & More

Let's get into the Week 10 WR rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

WR Rankings For Week 10 (Top 36)

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Rank	Player
1	CeeDee Lamb
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
3	Ja'Marr Chase
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown
5	Tee Higgins
6	Malik Nabers
7	Chris Olave
8	Parker Washington
9	Christian Watson
10	Nico Collins
11	Matthew Golden
12	Drake London
13	Justin Jefferson
14	Zay Flowers
15	Tetairoa McMillan
16	Rashee Rice
17	Garrett Wilson
18	Jameson Williams
19	DJ Moore
20	Jalen Coker
21	KC Concepcion
22	Stefon Diggs
23	Denzel Boston
24	Carnell Tate
25	DK Metcalf
26	Omar Cooper
27	DeMario Douglas
28	Deebo Samuel
29	Caleb Douglas
30	Germie Bernard
31	George Pickens
32	Tank Dell
33	Adonai Mitchell
34	Jakobi Meyers
35	Ryan Flournoy
36	Jordan Watkins

Week 10 Matchup Downgrades in WR Rankings: Christian Watson vs. Vikings & Drake London vs. Chiefs

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Chiefs are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-6.2)
Chiefs: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (17.8)

Here be dragons.

Christian Watson (Packers) vs. Vikings: Watson has been great for the Packers this season (16.9 fantasy points per game, 49-879-7 receiving, 74 targets, 82 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and in Week 1 he dominated the Vikings (29.7 fantasy points, 6-147-2 receiving, 8 targets), who have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football. But it's actually WR Matthew Golden who leads the team in usage (28% target share, 40% air yard share, 40% end-zone target share vs. 22%, 34%, 30% for Watson), and the Packers might be down C Sean Rhyan (ankle) and RG Travis Glover (knee). The Packers are -5.5 home favorites, which is theoretically good, but Watson has been notably worse as a favorite throughout his career (8.9 fantasy points per game vs. 12.6 as an underdog).

Drake London (Falcons) vs. Chiefs: In his first five games this year with QB Michael Penix, London had good production (15.5 fantasy points per game, 32-536-1 receiving, 47 targets, 86 Utilization Score), but over the past two weeks he has done little (5.3 fantasy points per game, 6-76-0 receiving, 11 targets), and his usage has slipped (21% target share, 25% air yard share, 0% end-zone target share, 47 Utilization Score). The Falcons have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and this is the Chiefs' third road game in four weeks. But the Chiefs are No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-33.2%), the Falcons are +3.5 dogs, and London has been worse throughout his career as a dog (10.4 fantasy points per game vs. 11.7).

Scoring Downgrades in WR Rankings for Week 10: Nico Collins at Browns & Tre Tucker vs. Seahawks

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the WRs."

This week the Texans are No. 15 in implied team total (22.0), and the Raiders are No. 26 (17.0).

Downgrades warranted.

Nico Collins (Texans) at Browns: Collins is having yet another explosive season (9.8 yards per target), but since returning from injury in Week 4, he's had just one truly impactful performance (27.3, 8.1, 9.4, 1.6, 13.5 fantasy points). And even though WRs Jayden Higgins (knee, IR) and Jaylin Noel (toe, IR) are out, the Texans have bizarrely limited Collins' workload since he returned to action (18% target share, 22% air yard share, 19% end-zone target share, 60 Utilization Score). The Texans are on their second straight road game, the Browns have the No. 5 HFA over the past five years (+5.12, per NFElo), and it's boosted because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). For his career, Collins has been far worse on the road (9.1 fantasy points per game vs. 13.6 at home), and the Browns are No. 6 in defensive dropback SR (42.6%). Collins has enhanced risk in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs. Seahawks: The past four weeks have fully encapsulated the Tucker experience (24.2, 18.8, 0.0, 7.5 fantasy points). A true boom/bust merchant, Tucker this year has three games with more than 18.5 fantasy points and six with no more than 7.5. The Raiders have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and indoors (vs. outdoors). But the offense could struggle now that the team has traded veteran QB Kirk Cousins to make way for rookie Fernando Mendoza (the market moved against the Raiders from +3.5 to +6.5), and the Seahawks are No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-5.2).

Week 10 Situational Downgrades in WR Rankings: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Steelers & Justin Jefferson at Packers

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs. Steelers: Chase has been dominant since the Week 6 bye in both his production (22.3 fantasy points per game, 26-358-3 receiving, 35 targets) and his usage (99% route rate, 34% target share, 45% air yard share, 36% end-zone target share, 100 Utilization Score), and he went off against the Steelers in Week 3 (20.3 fantasy points, 9-98-1 receiving, 12 targets). But the setup is bad: In division at home, QB Joe Burrow has been on the notably negative side of his splits (5-9 ATS, -31.9% ROI, per Action Network). The Bengals have traveled more than any other NFL team over the past month because they just played in Madrid (9,628 miles), and the Steelers are coming off the bye. Plus, the Steelers are No. 3 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-29.7%).

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) at Packers: Jefferson's usage has remained strong this season (85% route rate, 28% target share, 34% air yard share, 50% end-zone target share), but his production has been down (11.4 fantasy points per game, 31-393-4 receiving, 48 targets). With the return of former teammate QB Kirk Cousins, Jefferson thankfully gets a passer upgrade, but the transition might not be immediately smooth: Cousins will have less than a week to refamiliarize himself with the playbook, and the Vikings have a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football. Throughout his career, Jefferson has been much worse outdoors (12.2 fantasy points per game vs. 15.6 indoors), and the Packers are No. 3 in defensive pass DVOA (-20.7%).

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.