Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 2 Betting Market Data: Trust The Jets vs. Packers

Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 2 Betting Market Data: Trust The Jets vs. Packers

Matt LaMarca examines what the Week 2 betting marketing data is telling us and how we can take what the sharp money is doing and leverage it in our fantasy lineups.

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One of my favorite parts about fantasy football is that we’re allowed to cheat off the smart kids in class. Fantasy may feel like a huge game, but it’s nothing compared to the amount of money exchanged at the sportsbook each week.

The good news for fantasy is that we can use the betting data to make some informed decisions. When the sharp bettors have a position on a certain game, we can adjust our rankings accordingly.

That’s the purpose of this piece. Each week, I’m going to dive into some of the data available in the betting space to highlight a few spots that could be overlooked by the general fantasy public. Let’s dive right in.

Using Betting Market Data To Make Week 2 Fantasy Football Predictions

NYJ_jets-logo.svgAll Aboard the Jets Bandwagon

The Jets were thoroughly dominant in Week 1. They finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA, and they cruised to a comfortable victory. Geno Smith turned in a better performance than he had at any point with the Raiders last year, while Breece Hall added 100+ yards and a score on the ground.

That being said, it is important to remember that it came vs. the Titans. It’s possible that Tennessee is one of the worst teams in football. How much of the Jets’ success last week can be attributed to the Titans’ ineptitude?

It appears as though the sharps are believers in Gang Green. The Jets were +5.5 on the lookahead line, but they’re currently listed as just 3.5-point home underdogs. The sharps are still looking to get down on the Jets, so it’s possible this number drops to 3.0 before kickoff.

For fantasy purposes, the Jets have a couple of sneaky contributors. Hall and Garrett Wilson are no-doubt starters, but guys like Adonai Mitchell and Kenyon Sadiq also warrant consideration. Sadiq was a clear focal point when on the field last week, scoring a touchdown and earning a target on 25% of his routes run. He could be a bigger factor moving forward as he gets further removed from the groin injury that limited him during training camp.

Mitchell had just a 13% target share in Week 1, but he did have an 81% route participation. His average depth of target also checked in at nearly 20 yards, resulting in a significant 39% target share. With Omar Cooper sidelined in Week 2, Mitchell should have a slightly safer floor while still boasting his usual high ceiling.


NYG_giants-logo.svgIs the Giants’ Offense Legit?

Like with the Jets, the Giants are another team that looked impressive in Week 1. They dismantled the Cowboys’ defense, which was expected to be much improved in 2026-27.

The Giants will match up with the Rams in Week 2, but they’re catching them at arguably the best possible time. Not only are they without Myles Garrett, but this will also be their first game back in the States after playing in Australia. It’s possible it takes their bodies some time to reacclimate.

The over on this contest is seeing some sharp action, so the Giants’ offense could be poised for a repeat. Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, and Isaiah Likely are all strong starters, while guys like Malachi Fields and Devin Singletary could have some flex appeal in deeper leagues.


NE_patriots-logo.svgBounce Back Spot for the Patriots

The Patriots did not look like themselves in Week 1. Specifically, Drake Maye collapsed in the second half vs. the Seahawks, throwing three costly interceptions. They only managed 10 total points, and they allowed Seattle to come back despite losing their starting quarterback.

There has been some skepticism about Maye and the Patriots for quite some time. They faced an extremely easy schedule last year, and they rode that all the way to the Super Bowl. Now without A.J. Brown, it’s fair to wonder if Maye and the rest of the team’s offense is simply overvalued.

That said, the sharps don’t appear too worried. They’re backing the Patriots in Week 2 vs. the Steelers, pushing the line up to -5.5.

Maye should still be started with confidence in this matchup. He was tied for second in fantasy points per game at quarterback last season, and anyone is capable of having a bad game in Seattle. He’ll be back at home in Week 2 in what should be a much more comfortable environment.

Additionally, Rhamondre Stevenson and Romeo Doubs should also get another start for your fantasy squad. Even DeMario Douglas is worth some consideration. He led the receiving corps with a 23% target share last week, and his role should be safe with Brown sidelined.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Breece Hall
    BreeceHallQ
    RBNYJNYJ
    PPG
    18.8
    Proj
    12.9
  2. Garrett Wilson
    GarrettWilson
    WRNYJNYJ
    PPG
    10.9
    Proj
    11.9
  3. Adonai Mitchell
    AdonaiMitchell
    WRNYJNYJ
    PPG
    7.5
    Proj
    6.1
  4. Kenyon Sadiq
    KenyonSadiqQ
    TENYJNYJ
    PPG
    9.9
    Proj
    5.5

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