Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 6 Betting Market Data
Fantasy

Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 6 Betting Market Data

Matt LaMarca dishes out a trio of fantasy football predictions for Week 6 derived from where sharp money is going in the betting markets.

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One of my favorite parts about fantasy football is that we’re allowed to cheat off the smart kids in class. Fantasy may feel like a huge game, but it’s nothing compared to the amount of money exchanging hands at the sportsbook each week.

The good news for fantasy is that we can use the betting data to make some informed decisions. When the sharp bettors have a position on a certain game, we can adjust our rankings accordingly.

That’s the purpose of this piece. Each week, I’m going to dive into some of the data available in the betting space to highlight a few spots that could be overlooked by the general fantasy public. Let’s dive right in.

Leveraging Week 6 Betting Market Data To Make Fantasy Football Predictions

CHI_bears-logo.svgThe Bears Offense Is Back

It feels like 100 years ago, but remember what the Bears did in Week 1? Their offense went absolutely nuclear, totaling 59 points and 552 yards on the road vs. the Panthers.

That was essentially the last time the team played in a normal game. They faced the blitz-happy Vikings in a bad weather game in Week 2, and Caleb Williams has been out of the lineup since. Their offensive production has taken a clear hit as a result, with the team ranking just 21st in EPA per play from Week 2 on.

Williams is set to make his return to the lineup in Week 6. That’s not official yet, but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that “all signs point” to Williams being in the lineup vs. the Falcons. That makes their offense a prime bounce-back target.

Chicago is getting plenty of love in the betting market. There has been sharp activity on Bears -2.5 and Over 49.5 points in that contest. The Falcons defense has gotten off to a strong start this season, but they were exposed a bit by Tyler Huntley last week.

D’Andre Swift is coming off an excellent performance with Kyle Monangai out last week, and there’s a chance he’s forced to miss another game. That would vault him into clear RB1 territory. The Bears’ primary pass catchers (Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland) have all been disappointing this season, but getting back their star young quarterback should help them get back on track. Ben Johnson told reporters he wanted to set a new record for points scored this season, and with Williams back under center, it’s time to start believing in this unit again.

NO_saints-logo.svgTime To Panic In New Orleans?

The Saints were a trendy sleeper pick in the NFC South this season, and their offense looked the part to start the year. They put up 30 points and 469 yards against the Lions in Week 1, and they pulled off an upset victory over the Ravens in Week 2.

Unfortunately, they’ve taken a clear step back since then. The injuries have started to pile up. They’re down their top two running backs and their starting left tackle. No. 8 overall pick Jordyn Tyson still hasn't suited up for the team this season, while a handful of other players have been in and out of the lineup.

Their offense was an abject disaster last week vs. the Vikings. They had just 142 yards and three turnovers, and they managed just 13 points and nine first downs.

The Vikings are undoubtedly a tough matchup, but with the team missing so many key contributors, it’s hard to imagine things getting much better. They are listed as road favorites against the Giants, but the sharps see that as a mistake. This line has moved back and forth between -1.5 and -1.0, and it wouldn’t be a shock if it flips to New York -1.5 before kickoff.

For fantasy purposes, Chris Olave remains a clear-cut starter at wide receiver. But after that? The pickings are slim. Kendre Miller should be the next man up at running back, but he’s averaged a dreadful 2.9 yards per carry this season. Devaughn Vele has laid an egg in two of his past three games, while even Juwan Johnson feels risky at tight end. He still checks in at TE8 in our weekly projections, but you wouldn’t be crazy for benching him for another option.

OAK_raiders-logo.svgValue With Las Vegas

The Lions’ defense has gotten most of the fantasy attention this season. Detroit has been an over machine this season, with each of their first five contests hitting at least 55 combined points. However, we’ll need to look elsewhere with the team on bye in Week 6.

The good news is that the Bills are a pretty close facsimile. They’re 30th in EPA per play defensively this season to go along with one of the best offenses in football. Four of their five games have hit at least 55 combined points, with the game vs. the Chargers being the lone exception.

The Raiders get their crack at the Bills this week, and they’re an interesting team for fantasy purposes. They have two clear focal points on their offense – Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty – and no one else carries much appeal. 

This week could change that. The game is expected to be competitive and high-scoring, featuring a 4.5-point spread and 52.5-point total. There has also been sharp money coming in on the over.

Tre Tucker enters the streaming conversation at wide receiver. He’s second on the team with a 17% target share, and he does have some upside: he posted a WR7 finish back in Week 2.

You could also think about using Michael Mayer at tight end. His stock has taken a clear hit with Bowers back in the lineup, but he maintained a 75% route participation in Bowers’ first game back. That figure took a nosedive last week, but it could be a one-week aberration. You only need to consider him in deeper formats or DFS, but don’t be surprised if he puts together a solid performance.

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