Fantasy Football Trade Value Risers: Buy Low On Chase Brown

I know this may surprise you, but even though I’m an engineer, I’m not a tech guy. Well, take that back. I’m not a new tech guy. I have three kids! I’ve had three phones since grad school. I’ve bought/built two computers in the same timeframe. When I do upgrade, I’m looking at the previous year’s model. They’re mostly the same specs, and I save a few bucks.

Last week, I told you to skip the big swings and shore up the middle of your lineup. This week, let’s flip that. A slow start, a nagging injury, or a bad QB situation has knocked a few stars off their pedestal. Their managers are frustrated, and everyone’s chasing the breakout guys instead. But the talent hasn’t gone anywhere. So, let’s find “last year’s models” worth buying before their price goes back up.

Risers In Fantasy Football Trade Value

Chase Brown | RB | Bengals

The winner for the “opportunity not matching results” award goes to Chase Brown. He’s one of 13 RBs with over 60% of his team’s carries. Brown is the only RB with just one TD through seven weeks. Plus, at least in the short term, his grip on the backfield has weakened.

Samaje Perine not only notching the Bengals’ longest run of the season (15 yards) in Week 7, but securing the first carry from inside an opponent’s 5-yard line since Week 1 was painful to watch. I mean, as a Bengals fan, seeing my team put another six points was great. But seeing my favorite offense put up 35 (unanswered!) points while Brown logged his seventh straight game outside of the Top 12 was frustrating. However, if I wanted to hang my hat on a “since Week 8” revival for the fourth-year rusher, I’ve got a few pieces of copium.

Week 3: 80.0% (Early-Down Rushing Rate), 6% (Target Share)
Week 4: 66.7%, 21%
Week 5: 50.0%, 10%
Week 7: 68.8%, 15%

Brown’s early-down usage rebounded after a three-week slide. In short, he’s still part of the starting offense. The same trend held in obvious passing situations. Before the bye, Perine out-snapped Brown in two of three games. The two matched in touches last Sunday. Finally, Brown has been the more effective receiver (higher YPRR and more yards per target). Admittedly, highlighting that the 26-year-old can pick up more yards than the 31-year-old veteran feels like a low bar. But anything to thwart the idea of a Perine takeover is worth considering.

Of course, the rumors of the Bengals acquiring another RB before the trade deadline should be on everyone’s radar. But the uncertainty and recent production should only drop his price further. Plus, with the injuries to the other pass-catchers, more targets could be coming Brown’s way. And with the schedule opening up, he’ll be in line to capitalize on weaker defenses.

Justin Jefferson | WR | Vikings

Yes, I’m still buying the idea that the Vikings’ offense can get on track. Part of the reason is this throw from Kyler Murray to Justin Jefferson against the Colts.

KYLER MURRAY MAN..... https://t.co/MeyJ4HwQIL
— Pick 6 Pack (@Pick6PackFB) October 25, 2026

Of course, the result of the attempt isn’t the catalyst for hope. Murray’s about a foot off the mark. In the moment, I criticized him and labeled Jefferson as a sell candidate. But looking back at that throw and Murray’s time as a starter, I can’t remember a time when we knew him for regularly attacking that part of the field.

2020: 27th (Rank in MoF Throw Rate), 19th (EPA per Att. to the MoF)
2021: 15th, 18th
2022: 11th, 13th
2024: 22nd, 14th

I went back over his four full seasons, and Murray has been around league average in terms of throwing between the numbers. It’s not that Murray can’t, but it’s his “screw it, my WR1 is down there somewhere” attitude that’s garnered highlights. Not the “structured, on-time, in-rhythm” stereotype we’ve seen from most of HC Kevin O’Connell’s QBs. Said another way, finding what works for Murray is still a work in progress. And that flows down to Murray and his WR1.

Like Chase Brown, it’s not like Jefferson lost his job to Jauan Jennings or Jordan Addison. He still led the Vikings’ WRs in his two games with Murray under center. And that brings up another point. Those two have only played two full games together! And across them, small-sample-size caveat, they’re starting to figure out what works.

Week 5: 60% (Target Rate on In-Breaking Routes), 40% (Out-breakers)
Week 7: 25%, 75%

The logical response to Murray not being comfortable with accessing the MoF is to go outside. And they did! Timing and communication may still be an issue, but with Murray continuing to look for No. 18, I’d rather bank on his talent prevailing (especially at a lower price).

Let’s Make A Deal

So, we’ve got a couple of buy-lows that would be ideal targets in a trade. If you want to toss Saquon Barkley (injuries, though), Jeremiyah Love, or Michael Wilson into the mix, they work, too. Regardless, with those names in mind, let’s review a couple of the latest trades, review them using our Trade Analyzer tool, and see if we need to make any adjustments.

Honestly, I understand the idea behind trading away Barkley and Chris Olave for Jefferson and Jonah Coleman. You’re swapping the risk of Barkley’s injuries and the Eagles’ lost season torpedoing your roster for the upside of Coleman consolidating the backfield touches in a Bo-Nix-led offense. However, that’s a two-leg parlay. Using our rest-of-season fantasy football rankings gives us some other options.

Kyle Monangai was going to be my first suggestion, but with his current timeline, we may not see him until after the Bears’ Week 10 bye. If you need immediate production at RB, a rusher with a weekly floor of touches (e.g., Rhamondre Stevenson) would not only raise your immediate floor, but provide a better offensive environment than the Broncos. Let’s look at Chase Brown’s market.

I’ve considered this exact structure over the last three months. Heavy emphasis on the word “structure.” So often we focus on the names, assign a value, and declare who won the trade. But if you took out the jerseys, looked at it as a WR2 and TE1 for an RB2, the result becomes more palatable. I wouldn't change anything about this.

Could you adjust the pieces of the deal? Absolutely. I’d prefer Tucker Kraft over T.J. Hockenson. Kraft is in a more pass-friendly offense, has a better QB, and his usage (specifically in the red zone) has picked up over the last few weeks. Instead of Garrett Wilson, let’s assume DJ Moore is over the shoulder injury and holds the WR1 job with Josh Allen for the rest of the season. Essentially, bucketing the players into their archetypes can help measure each side’s value in an initial offer. And by leaning on tiers, we can find the specific pieces that’ll get us to a final deal.