Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 4

• Spread: Texans -2.5
• Total: 47.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): HOU 26, DAL 23

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Preview

Not to dive too deep into the handicapping weeds during a strictly fantasy discussion, but there’s often pertinent overlap. Dallas’ differentials tell a dissimilar story than their losing record might let on. The Cowboys' +0.34 EPA/play ranks second in the NFL, and no one’s +1.5% offensive success is better. Not to oversimplify, but this team’s most likely going to be fine.

Doesn’t take more than watching a handful of snaps from your couch to tell that Dak Prescott, the QB7 at north of 20 fantasy points/game, is in full control of this offense — and a huge draft day value at ADP. Accuracy plus weaponry without a propensity for taking sacks will keep translating into fantasy success, especially with his defense allowing +6.0 yards/play to mediocre opposition (besides Baltimore).

Fantasy gamers love drafting Cowboys if anything for simply understanding the assignment. An incredible 79% of backfield touches, including ~12% of team target share, with all the goal-line work goes to Javonte Williams. Then once Dak drops back, it’s the same four players earning targets on repeat. The combination of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Ryan Flournoy, and Jake Ferguson accounts for over 94% of all WR/TE targets this year. Once more, I implore you to roster Flournoy, whose ~8% roster rate as of writing will almost certainly seem ridiculous in hindsight at some point.  

Pick the elephant in the room’s gotta be matching up against the Texans’ D, one we used to dread … but now I’m not so sure. Listen, it’s never going to be a picnic with Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, and Sheldon Rankins occupying real estate up front. However, Houston’s secondary’s been more beatable than in recent years — only the Commanders and Cardinals allowed more fantasy points/game to opposing WRs (27.4), not to mention the fourth-most yards/game surrendered to tight ends (71.0).

If anyone can get it done in this tough of a spot, it’s Dak and the Boys.

• Start: Dak Prescott (QB10), Javonte Williams (RB18), CeeDee Lamb (WR5), George Pickens (WR16)
• Sit: Ryan Flournoy (WR60)
• Sleeper: Jake Ferguson (TE19)

Houston Texans Fantasy Preview

Held off on this write-up as long as possible, but huzzah! It appears alpha WR Nico Collins will suit up for the Texans after returning to practice. As an NFL modeler/handicapper-type guy, I know we’re not supposed to attribute too many points to the presence of a single player, but to me, the proof’s in the pudding.

Look no further than the game logs for my proof in the pudding. After Week 1, tables were pounded nationwide for Texans’ futures despite losing a shootout to the Bills. After all, the worry was always that Houston couldn’t match their defensive intensity with offensive firepower — 31 points and 381 yards later, the sky appeared to be the limit. Not so fast …

When reports hit the web that Collins’ hamstring would keep him out a couple of weeks, we knew there'd be a dropoff. Just how bad? That’s another story altogether. Houston went on to average just 11.5 points on under 300 yards/game against relatively beatable secondaries in Cincinnati and Indianapolis. C.J. Stroud completed just 56.1% of passes in those games for a putrid 79.3 passer rating. Woof.

No threat of Collins’ versatility put a kibosh on all Texan verticality by forcing WRs out of their role. Would you believe no HOU wideout managed to finish better than WR56 in either given week — with one of those coming against a terrible Colts’ secondary.

Nico’s presence resonates throughout the offense, down the runners as well. What I mean to say is, without Collins to keep defenses honest, it should come as no surprise that Houston gained just six fewer yards on the ground in Week 1 than Weeks 2 and 3 combined. Sometimes it’s about more than a single player’s stats, but how they affect the smoothness of operation throughout the entire machine.

Not to misframe, I’m not calling HOU a top-5 offensive unit, but I absolutely think they’ll more closely represent the team facing Buffalo than the toothless tiger in the games to follow — including a return to David Montgomery as the driving force in the backfield.

• Start: David Montgomery (RB20), Nico Collins (WR10)
• Sit: Woody Marks (RB33), Dalton Schultz (TE13)
• Sleeper: Jaylin Noel (WR78)