IDP Fantasy Football Starts For Week 10: Shemar James, Danielle Hunter & More

As I sit here contemplating the trade deadline, luckily, there weren’t too many trades that had a huge impact, IDP-wise. Daiyan Henley to the Broncos was a surprise, as was Amani Hooker to the Bills. We won’t know too much about Henley until Week 11, but we’ll see how Buffalo uses Amani right away.

Week 10 has 14 games, with Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay on a bye. The Commanders play at the Giants on Thursday night; the Patriots and Lions won’t be ‘Truckin’ down to New Orleans, but to Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday.

Let's take a look at the week. For linebackers, I'm looking at how many tackles the offense gives to off-ball linebackers and how it likes to run. For linemen, a right defensive end lines up over the left tackle and a left defensive end lines up over the right tackle, so I'm matching each rusher to the tackle he sees the most. For defensive backs, it's tackles allowed to safeties and where the safety lines up.

Linebackers To Start In Week 10 IDP Fantasy Football Lineups

The 49ers are allowing 26.3 tackles/gm to opposing off-ball linebackers, the most of any offense on the slate. The Bills are next at 23.7, then the Rams at 23.3. The Dolphins are at the bottom at 14, and the average is 18.8. Three of the four linebackers below are facing one of the top three.

Shemar James, Dallas Cowboys (at San Francisco 49ers)

Shemar James has become a full-time linebacker, and this is a good offense to have that role against. His snap share has gone from 42% in Week 5 to 79%, 87%, and 96%, and he played 95% of the snaps last week. He has 27 tackles and a 10.1% tackle rate over his last 5 games.

San Francisco is in 21 personnel on 39.2% of its snaps over the last four games and runs on 45.3% of its plays, with a heavy box on 35.1% of them. That's good for IDP because two backs on the field means the linebackers are the ones fitting the run, and that's where their tackles come from. They throw short on 65.2% of their targets, and Dallas plays zone on 68.8% of its snaps over that stretch, and zone is good for a linebacker because he's sitting in front of those short throws and finishing the tackle after the catch. San Francisco runs left on 56.5% of its carries, and James is lined up on the left on 41.4% of his snaps and in the middle on 22.1%, so he's on or next to the side the ball goes most of the time, and that's what you want from a linebacker because he's the one in position to make the stop.

A lot of his work has been in coverage. He has 199 coverage snaps to 129 run-defense snaps, and he's been targeted 20 times with 17 catches for 144 yards. For IDP, I don't mind that, because every catch he gives up is a tackle he gets to finish, and 22 of his 32 tackles are solos. He also has an interception and a pass breakup, so he's not just a body out there.

The rate is the thing to know. James has 32 tackles on 346 snaps, a 9.2% tackle rate, so this is a bet on the matchup and the snaps more than the production. I like him as an LB2 this week. Like Ice Cube said in No Vaseline, “I put that on my mama and my dead homies.”

Mack Wilson, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

George Costanza is always intimidated, and always follows his instincts. So, he decides to do the opposite. That’s what I’m doing with Mack Wilson this week. My instinct is to always rank him low, but this week I’m doing the opposite and not ordering tuna on toast. Mack Wilson has the green dot and a three-down role. He's played 100% of the Cardinals' snaps in each of the last five games, and he has 33 tackles and a 10.6% tackle rate over those five games. That's 61 tackles on 534 snaps, an 11.4% tackle rate, with 3 TFLs.

The Rams are allowing 23.3 tackles/gm to opposing off-ball linebackers, and the way they play explains it. They're in 12- or 13-personnel on 55.2% of their snaps over the last four games and have faced a heavy box on 46.8% of them, so offenses keep running into stacked fronts, and the linebackers are the ones cleaning it up. That's what you want as an IDP owner because extra tight ends mean more runs, and more runs mean more linebacker tackles. When they do throw, it's short on 78.2% of their targets, and Arizona plays zone on 88.0% of its snaps. Wilson is the dot wearer sitting in the middle of those zones, so a lot of those catches end with him making the tackle. The Rams run left on 51.0% and right on 49.0% of their carries, and Wilson lines up on both sides (41% left, 44% right), so it doesn't matter which way they run; he's going to be close to it.

He's split his work about evenly, with 242 run-defense snaps and 252 in coverage, so he's involved on both kinds of plays. Of his 61 tackles, 37 are assists and 24 are solos, and he's been targeted 29 times with 25 catches. Those catches are tackle chances too. He also has 3 TFLs and 9 stuffed runs, so he's not just cleaning up after the catch.

Mack is my Chicken salad on rye, untoasted, side of potato salad, and a cup of tea.

Anthony Hill, Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Anthony Hill is coming off the bye, and he was about as busy as a linebacker gets before it. He played 100% of the snaps in Weeks 5 through 7 and 96% in Week 8, and he has 40 tackles and a 14.5% tackle rate over those four games. That's 82 tackles on 528 snaps, a 15.5% tackle rate.

Jacksonville is allowing 19.7 tackles/gm to opposing off-ball linebackers, a little above the average. The Jaguars run on 48.6% of their plays over the last four games, and it was 58.5% and 53.6% in the last two. They're in 11 personnel on 58.2% of their snaps, but they're in 12 on 22.6% and 13 on 18.1%. That's about 40% of their plays with an extra tight end on the field, which is where the runs come from, and runs are where Hill's tackles come from. Tennessee has been in nickel on 64.5% of its snaps, and Hill stays on the field either way, so he gets every one of those chances. The Jaguars run left on 55.4% of their carries, and Hill is on the left on 42.6% of his snaps, the right on 40.9% and the middle on 16.5%, so he's in position for the run no matter which way it goes.

Hill has 223 run-defense snaps and 268 coverage snaps, and he's been targeted 38 times with 29 catches. That's a lot of throws coming into his area, and it's a big reason his tackle numbers are what they are. He has 36 solos and 46 assists, with 15 run stops and 3 pass breakups. I wouldn't worry about the bye costing him anything, since the role hasn't changed.

This is the matchup with the least help of the four, but the usage and the tackle rate make up for it. He's an LB1 for me.

Jamien Sherwood, New York Jets (vs. Buffalo Bills)

Jamien Sherwood has a three-down role for the Jets. He's been at 94% or higher in each of the last five games, including 98.5% last week, and he has 46 tackles and a 14.6% tackle rate over his last 5 games.

Buffalo is allowing 23.7 tackles/gm to opposing off-ball linebackers, the second-most on the slate. The Bills run on 50.2% of their plays over the last four games and use 12 personnel on 29.7% and 13 on 28.8%, and that's good for IDP because extra tight ends mean they're running at you, and the linebackers are the ones finishing those runs. They've faced a heavy box on 43.8% of their snaps. Runs into a heavy box tend to end up in the middle of the field, and that's where a middle linebacker is finishing them. Buffalo runs left on 47.9% and right on 46.9% of its carries, and Sherwood is on the left on 46.2% of his snaps and the right on 47.0%, so he's in position for either one.

Sherwood splits his snaps between the run and the pass too, with 260 run-defense snaps and 240 in coverage. He has 12 run stops, 6 stuffed runs, 5 TFLs, and 5 pass breakups, and quarterbacks are averaging only 6.7 yards per target against him. That's a linebacker who is making plays on all downs, and he has 34 solos out of his 77 tackles.

Role, rate and matchup. Giddy up! We’re off to Kenny Rogers’ Roasters for chicken.

Two Linebackers I'm Worried About In Week 10

Jordyn Brooks, Miami Dolphins (at Indianapolis Colts): This is a matchup concern for a linebacker who has been very good. Indianapolis is allowing 15.5 tackles/gm to opposing off-ball linebackers, the fourth fewest on the slate and well under the 18.8 average. The Colts run on 40.2% of their plays over the last four games, and 63.7% of their snaps are in 11 personnel, with 12 personnel on 26.9% and 13 on 8.6%. That's a lot of three-receiver sets, which isn't what you want for IDP because fewer runs mean fewer run fits for a linebacker. They do throw short on 70.1% of their targets, and Miami plays zone on 89.5% of its snaps, and that helps him because he's sitting in front of those short throws and finishing the tackle after the catch. Indianapolis runs left on 46.6% and right on 52.4% of its carries, and Brooks lines up on both sides almost evenly (47.7% left, 49.7% right), so he's in on the run when they do run it.

His production is the reason he's still in my lineup. He has 75 tackles on 442 snaps, a 17% tackle rate, with 3 tackles for loss, and he has 40 tackles and an 18.9% tackle rate over his last four games. He's played 98% to 100% of the snaps over the last three. He had 12 last week, and I don't think we need to go chasing the box scores. The role is solid, and the matchup is why I'm not expecting one of his big games. This is also more of a call where I see Jacob Rodriguez dominating the tackle share.

CJ Allen, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins): Miami is allowing 14.0 tackles/gm to opposing off-ball linebackers, the fewest on the slate and well under the 18.8 average. The Dolphins run on 44.8% of their plays over the last four games, but only 12.6% of their snaps are in 12 or 13 personnel. Another 25.9% come out of 21, so there aren't many heavy sets, and that's not good for IDP because a linebacker gets his tackles on the runs. They throw short on 73.0% of their targets, and Indianapolis plays zone on 70.1% of its snaps, which helps a linebacker, but there just isn't much else for him to work with.

Allen just got the dot, but we’ll have to see if Akeem Davis-Gaither returns. He played 43% of the snaps in Week 5, had 13 snaps in Week 6 and none in Week 7, then went to 83% and 100% over the last two weeks. Bryce Boettcher played 72% of the snaps alongside him last week, so the tackles are being shared. He has 20 tackles and a 17.4% tackle rate over the last two games, which is why he looks good on paper, and he has 25 tackles on 161 snaps (15.5%) with 2 TFLs. I’m tempering expectations, and with 4 teams on bye, you might need to start him, but he might be more of an LB3/4.

Defensive Line Starts For Week 10 IDP Fantasy Football Lineups

The Browns are allowing a 47.4% pressure rate over the last four games, the highest on the slate, then the Patriots at 45.1%, the Dolphins at 44.6% and the Texans at 43.3%. The Rams are allowing a 22.9% pressure rate, the lowest, and the Steelers are at 26.5%. The average is 37.0%. For tackles, the Bills are allowing 18.3 tackles/gm to opposing edge defenders, with the Giants at 15.7 and the Colts at 15.5. The average is 12.6.

Danielle Hunter, Houston Texans (at Cleveland Browns)

Death. Taxes. Phish extending their jams. Cleveland and its QBs are allowing sacks.

Cleveland is allowing a 47.4% pressure rate, the highest on the slate, and Danielle Hunter is the right rusher to take advantage. He lines up at right defensive end on 91% of his edge snaps, so he's across from left tackle Spencer Fano, and the Browns' left tackle spot is allowing pressure on 8.7% of dropbacks. That's the weak spot on that line, and the Browns throw on 65% of their plays, and 78.8% of their snaps are in 11 personnel. That's the personnel you want for a pass rusher because three receivers on the field means the quarterback is dropping back, and that's a lot of dropbacks to rush.

The other thing I like in Cleveland, for IDP, is that the quarterback holds the ball. 26.5% of the pressures the Browns allow are on the quarterback himself, 35 of 132, which is one of the higher marks in the league. As a fan, this drives me nuts.

Deshaun Watson has taken 18 sacks in 8 games, and Browns quarterbacks have 9 sacks over the last four games with 27.3% of their pressures on the quarterback. That matters for a rusher because the sack still shows up when the tackle holds his block. If Hunter is anywhere near the quarterback, there's a good chance he gets to finish it.

Hunter has 37 pressures on 248 snaps, a 14.9% pressure rate, with 4 sacks. His pressures went 7, 4, 3, and 6 in the four games he played, and he's been on the field for 67% to 80% of the snaps. Cleveland runs left on 56% of its carries, which is toward his side. Runs that come at an edge mean he's in on the tackle instead of chasing from the backside, so there's some tackle upside in this one too, but the pressure is the star of the show here. He has 10 tackles and a 5.3% tackle rate over his last four games.

Hunter is a pass rusher first. He has 250 pass-rush snaps compared to 140 run-defense snaps, and he has 21 impact plays on the season, with 3 TFLs and a forced fumble. He wins on 12.4% of his pass rushes, and is battling through the blocks to finish. I'm not looking for tackles from him. This is about getting home on a quarterback who is going to be dropping back a lot.

Houston against Cleveland’s offensive line might as well be the Chicago Blackhawks vs. the San Jose Sharks in NHL Hockey on the Genesis. Dominant. He's a DL1 for me.

Chop Robinson, Miami Dolphins (at Indianapolis Colts)

Indianapolis is allowing a 41.9% pressure rate over the last four games, and 42.9% on the season, and the Colts are allowing 15.5 tackles/gm to opposing edge defenders, the third most on the slate. Chop Robinson lines up at left defensive end on 68% of his edge snaps, so he'll see the right tackle. Jalen Travis is out with a knee injury, and Luke Tenuta is in line to start there. The Colts' right tackle spot is allowing pressure on 9.1% of dropbacks, which is the soft spot on that line. He's at right defensive end on 32% of his snaps, and that puts him across from left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who's the strongest piece of the Colts' line and is only allowing pressure on 4.2% of his dropbacks.

Daniel Jones holds the ball too. He's responsible for 17.6% of the pressures over the last four games, and he's been sacked 4 times in that stretch; 6 times on the season. A quarterback who holds it gives a rusher with a high win rate the extra second to finish, and that's exactly what Robinson does.

Robinson has the best pressure rate of the group. He has 33 pressures on 151 snaps, a 21.9% pressure rate, with 4 sacks. Over his last four games, he has 21 pressures on 85 pass-rush snaps, a 24.7% pressure rate, and 3 of those 4 sacks. His snap share has been 56%, 62%, 54%, and 65%, and he has 10 tackles and a 7.3% tackle rate over those four games.

Robinson has 21 impact plays in only 259 snaps, with 4 sacks and 4 TFLs, and he wins on 19.1% of his pass rushes. That's the best win rate on this list by a wide margin. He's also on the field for 152 pass-rush snaps compared to 101 run-defense snaps, so most of his work comes when the offense is passing. It's the sort of player who can make a week on one or two plays.

He's across from the right tackle on most of his snaps, and that's the soft spot, so the matchup works. I'd start him as a DL2.

JT Tuimoloau, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Miami is allowing a 44.6% pressure rate over the last four games, and 45.7% on the season, and the Dolphins are allowing 14.0 tackles/gm to opposing edge defenders. JT Tuimoloau lines up at left defensive end on 73% of his edge snaps, so he's across from right tackle Austin Jackson, and Miami's right tackle spot is allowing pressure on 8.4% of dropbacks. That's a good matchup. Miami runs on 44.8% of its plays with 21 personnel on 25.9% of its snaps, and the carries are close to even left and right (48.4% and 50.5%). Runs split that evenly means about half of them come right at his side, and that's where an edge gets his tackles. He's not just a pass rusher in this one.

Malik Willis is on injured reserve, so Kyle McCord is in at quarterback for Miami. I'm not counting on the quarterback to help Tuimoloau out this week. The reason I like this matchup is the right tackle spot and the pressure rate Miami is allowing as a team.

Tuimoloau has played 74% to 93% of the Colts' snaps, including 82% last week. He has 18 pressures on 168 snaps, a 10.7% pressure rate, with 2 sacks. His pressures went 2, 0, 1, 5, and 6, and he has 14 tackles and a 6.2% tackle rate over his last 5 games.

What I like is that he's more than a pass rusher. He has 7 stuffed runs and 11 run stops, a 7.7% run-stop rate, and he's split his snaps almost evenly with 142 run-defense snaps and 168 pass-rush snaps. He has 2 sacks and a forced fumble too. That gives him a floor, and it means he can be in on the play when Miami runs at him.

Mike Green, Baltimore Ravens (at Los Angeles Chargers)

Mike Green is the one on this list who needs the matchup to work, and I think it does. The Chargers are allowing a 38.8% pressure rate over the last four games and 41.8% on the season, and they're allowing 14.0 tackles/gm to opposing edge defenders. Green lines up at left defensive end on 90% of his edge snaps, so he's facing the right tackle, and that spot is allowing pressure on 6.0% of dropbacks. Travis Burke has been the Chargers' right tackle most recently. He's allowed 10 pressures on 130 pass-block snaps (7.7%) over his last three games. Joe Alt has the most snaps there this season but has played only two of the last four games, so if he's back on the right side, that's a tougher matchup for Green.

He has 16 pressures on 165 snaps, a 9.7% pressure rate, with 3.5 sacks. He’s played 38% to 69% of the Ravens’ snaps, and 61% last week, so this isn’t a volume play. Over his last 5 games, he has 8 pressures on 105 pass-rush snaps, a 7.6% pressure rate, with 2.5 sacks, and he has 14 tackles and an 8.1% tackle rate. The Chargers run left on 62.3% of their carries, which is away from him, so he’s chasing from the backside, and more of the tackles go to the other side.

The good news is that when he's out there, he makes plays. He has 5 TFLs on 21 tackles, so nearly a quarter of his tackles are behind the line, and he has a 9.2% run-stop rate with 3.5 sacks. He's also missed 5 tackles, which is a 19.2% rate, so he isn't a clean tackler. That's why I want the matchup to do some of the work for him.

I'm only starting him in a deeper lineup. The matchup is good, but his snaps keep him a DL3.

Two Linemen I'm Worried About In Week 10

Josh Sweat, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Los Angeles Rams): The Rams are allowing a 22.9% pressure rate over the last four games, the lowest on the slate and well under the 37.0% average. They're in 13 personnel on 46.8% of their snaps, which is bad for a pass rusher because there's an extra tight end or tackle helping block on almost half of their plays. Sweat lines up on both sides, 51% at left defensive end and 49% at right, so he'll see both tackles. The Rams' left tackle spot is allowing pressure on 3.6% of dropbacks and the right tackle spot on 6.0%, so neither side is soft. The Rams are also allowing 12.3 tackles/gm to opposing edge defenders, right around the 12.6 average, so there's no big tackle floor to fall back on.

Sweat's snaps have been 60%, 79%, 59%, and 65%, and he played 66% last week. His pressures went 3, 3, 2, 1, and 1, and he has 16 tackles and a 7.9% tackle rate over his last 5 games. He has 18 pressures and 3 sacks on 204 snaps. It's a steady role with a low ceiling and a hard matchup, and I'm not interested in playing him this week.

Boye Mafe, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers): Boye Mafe is a good rusher, so this is a matchup call and not a player call. The Steelers are allowing a 26.5% pressure rate over the last four games, the second lowest on the slate and well under the 37.0% average. That's down from 34.9% on the season, so the line has tightened up. Mafe lines up at right defensive end on 59.8% of his edge snaps, so he's across from the left tackle most of the time, and that spot is allowing pressure on 6.0% of dropbacks. He's at left defensive end on the other 40.2% and sees the right tackle, which is allowing pressure on 7.5%. Neither side is soft. Pittsburgh is allowing 13.7 tackles/gm to opposing edge defenders, a little above the 12.6 average, but Mafe has 13 tackles and a 6.5% tackle rate over his last four games, so I'm not counting on the tackles to cover for the pressure.

Aaron Rodgers also gets the ball out. He's responsible for 10 of the 84 pressures he faces (11.9%) with 5 sacks in 8 games, and over his last three games it's 2 of 25 (8.0%) with 1 sack. A quarterback who gets rid of it takes away the sack that usually comes when the tackle holds his block for a beat too long.

Mafe has 37 pressures on 225 snaps, a 16.4% pressure rate, with 5.5 sacks, and his true pass-set win rate is 24.0%. Over his last four games, he has 20 pressures on 112 pass-rush snaps, a 17.9% pressure rate, with 3.5 sacks, and he's been on the field for 75.0% to 79.2% of the snaps. The metrics are borderline elite, but the matchup may not be the best.

Defensive Backs To Start In Week 10 IDP Fantasy Football Lineups

The Bills are allowing 13.0 tackles/gm to opposing safeties, the most on the slate, then the Browns at 12.8, the Cowboys at 12.0, the Cardinals at 11.8 and the Rams at 11.5. At the bottom, the Vikings are at 5.7, the Jaguars at 6.0, and the Saints at 7.0. The average is 9.6.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, New York Jets (vs. Buffalo Bills)

Now, anyone who knows me knows my feelings on Minkah. So, I’m putting my bias aside here. Buffalo is allowing 13 tackles/gm to opposing safeties, the most on the slate, and Minkah Fitzpatrick has a three-down role at safety. He's played 98% to 100% in each of the last five games, and he has 37 tackles and an 11.6% tackle rate over those five games. The Bills run on 50.2% of their plays over the last four games and use 12 personnel on 29.7% and 13 on 28.8%, and that's good for IDP because extra tight ends mean they're running, and a safety is the one finishing the runs that get past the linebackers. Buffalo runs left on 47.9% and right on 46.9% of its carries, and Fitzpatrick is on the right side on 69.2% of his snaps, so about half of those runs come to his side.

Fitzpatrick has been targeted only 11 times in coverage, with 5 catches for 87 yards, so teams aren't going at him. He has an interception and 3 pass breakups, and he's missed just 1 tackle all season. That's a safe player. He has 53 tackles, 26 solos, and 8 run stops, so when the ball is near him, he finishes the play.

He's in the box on 13.7% of his snaps, so he isn't a thumper, but the matchup makes up for it.

Quentin Lake, Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)

The Cardinals are allowing 11.8 tackles/gm to opposing safeties. Quentin Lake has played 100% of the snaps in four of the last five games and 98% in the other, and he has 34 tackles and an 11.1% tackle rate over those five games, and he hasn't had fewer than 6 in any of them. That's the steadiest line on the board. Arizona throws short on 67.7% of its targets and uses 13 personnel on 30.7% of its snaps, which is good for a safety because an extra tight end means more runs and more tackles near the box.

The Rams play zone on 65.0% of their snaps, and zone is good for a safety because he's sitting in front of those short throws and finishing the tackle after the catch. Arizona runs left on 51.1% of its carries, and Lake is on the left on 69.7% of his snaps, so he's lined up on the side where the most runs go, and that's where a safety makes his tackles. The Rams have also been in 7+ DB more often, so one less linebacker to contend with.

Lake gets targeted a lot, with 50 targets and 33 catches, and he has 3 interceptions and 11 pass breakups, so he's busy in coverage. He has 63 tackles, 37 of them solo, and 9 missed tackles. Lake is involved in a lot of plays, and that's why the floor is as good as it is.

Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots (at Detroit Lions)

The Lions are allowing 9.7 tackles/gm to outside corners against a 7.9 average, and Gonzalez lines up outside on about 90% of his snaps. Detroit runs on 51.9% of its plays and is in 12 or 13 personnel on 61.8% of its snaps. Two tight ends on the field means fewer receivers, and a passing game that stays close to the formation. That puts the corner nearer to the run, and that's where an outside corner picks up tackles. The Lions throw short on 67.1% of their targets, and New England plays zone on 61.5% of its snaps. Zone is good for a corner because he's sitting in front of those short throws and finishing the tackle after the catch.

Gonzalez has played 92.3% to 100% of the snaps over his last four games. He has 23 tackles and a 9.3% tackle rate over those four games, and 31 tackles with 27 solos on the season. He had 10 last week, and I don't think we need to go chasing the box scores. The matchup and the role are why he's here. He's been targeted 42 times with 29 catches and has 6 pass breakups, and he's in the box on about 5% of his snaps, so most of his tackles come after the catch and not from the run. Detroit averages 63.7 offensive plays per game, which is a good number of snaps for a corner to work with.

This is a matchup play on a corner with a clear role, so he’s a good start in CB-required leagues this week.

Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Pittsburgh is allowing 10.0 tackles/gm to opposing safeties, and the Steelers throw short on 79.5% of their targets with 61.1% of their snaps in 11 personnel. That's a lot of passing and a lot of short throws, and Cincinnati plays zone on 68.6% of its snaps, so Jordan Battle is sitting off the line in front of them, and that's where a safety's tackles come from. The Bengals have been in nickel on 81.6% of their snaps, which keeps him on the field. Pittsburgh runs left on 50.5% of its carries, and Battle is on the left on 85.6% of his snaps, so half of the runs go to his side. He's played 88% to 100% of the snaps, and he has 27 tackles and a 10.9% tackle rate over his last four games, with 55 snaps and 3 tackles last week.

Battle has 52 tackles, and 36 of them are solos, which is a high share for a safety. He has 3 interceptions and 7 pass breakups; he's been targeted 24 times with 16 catches, and he has 7 run stops. He's missed 9 tackles, so he isn't perfect, but it's a role that's producing.

Two Defensive Backs I'm Worried About In Week 10

Kevin Winston, Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars): Jacksonville is allowing 6.0 tackles/gm to opposing safeties, the second fewest on the slate and well below the 9.6 average. Winston had 14 and 8 tackles in his last two games, which is why he looks tempting coming off the bye, but those are his only two games in the Week 5 to 9 stretch, and he's in the box on just 8.6% of his snaps. The Jaguars run on 48.6% of their plays and use 11 personnel on 58.2% of their snaps, and three receivers on the field means fewer run fits for a safety. They throw short on 64.4% of their targets, and Tennessee plays zone on 73.3% of its snaps, which helps a safety. Winston lines up on the right on 74.5% of his snaps, but Jacksonville runs left on 55.4% of its carries and throws left on 47.8% of its targets, so the play keeps going away from him. He's rarely near the run, so I’m not expecting a repeat of last week.

Evan Williams, Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings): This is a matchup concern for a player who has been very good. Minnesota is allowing 5.7 tackles/gm to opposing safeties, the fewest on the slate. The Vikings run on 36.8% of their plays over the last four games and average only 50.7 offensive plays per game, the lowest on the slate, so there are fewer snaps and fewer runs for a safety to finish. They throw short on 60.5% of their targets, and Green Bay plays zone on 79.5% of its snaps, which is normally good for a safety sitting in front of those throws, but a short game with a low play count doesn't give him much to work with. Minnesota runs right on 56.2% of its carries, and Williams lines up on both sides about evenly (39.4% left, 38.5% right), so the direction isn't the problem. It's the number of plays.

Williams has a three-down role at safety. He played 100% in four straight games and 97% last week, and he has 42 tackles and a 12.5% tackle rate over his last five games. He's in the box on 9.5% of his snaps, so he's mostly a deep player. He’s been one of the top-scoring DBs in IDP, so I might be tempering expectations and hoping Kirk Cousins provides a spark to the Minnesota offense.