Upgrades For Week 10 Tight End Rankings: George Kittle Ready To Roll

Let's get into the Week 10 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

To access all my fantasy football rankings, my weekly written content, our Fantasy HQ League Hub, our weekly player projections, and my personal NFL Game Model, use the promo code FREEDMAN for a 10% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 10 Tight End Rankings

Rank	Player
1	George Kittle
2	Brock Bowers
3	Trey McBride
4	Isaiah Likely
5	Travis Kelce
6	Hunter Henry
7	Dalton Kincaid
8	Sam LaPorta
9	Harold Fannin
10	Tyler Warren
11	Tucker Kraft
12	T.J. Hockenson
13	Darren Waller
14	Brenton Strange
15	Kyle Pitts

Week 10 Matchup Upgrades: Isaiah Likely vs. Commanders & Hunter Henry vs. Lions

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Lions and Commanders are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TEs.

Commanders: No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (35.6%)
Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+8.7)

Bang a gong.

Isaiah Likely (Giants) vs. Commanders: When Likely faced the Commanders in Week 5, he went off (26.9 fantasy points, 11-94-2 receiving, 13 targets, 98 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and that's probably not a fluke, because 1) the Commanders are bad at defending TEs, and 2) Likely has been one of the league's best TEs this year (13.2 fantasy points per game, 46-448-6 receiving, 69 targets, 92 Utilization Score). Since QB J.J. McCarthy took over in the middle of Week 6, Likely has been productive (12.3 fantasy points per game, 13-164-2 receiving, 21 targets) and utilized (90% route rate, 19% air yard share, 43% end-zone target share, 81 Utilization Score).

Hunter Henry (Patriots) vs. Lions (in Munich): Henry played only sparingly in Week 9 (48% route rate, 8% target share), but I expect that's because he was returning from a foot injury that forced him from Week 8. Now no longer on the injury report, Henry could see extra usage without No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee). The Pats are +2.5 dogs for an early 9:30 am ET kickoff in Munich, but this game has a 51.5 over/under, and throughout his career Henry has been better in games with a total of at least 49 (9.1 fantasy points per game vs. 7.6 otherwise). Plus, the Lions are without LB Jack Campbell (neck, IR) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP). If desperate, I'd consider starting Henry in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 10 Scoring Upgrades: George Kittle at Cowboys & Sam LaPorta vs. Patriots

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TE."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (29.75 points); the Lions, No. 4 (27.0).

Upgrades warranted.

George Kittle (49ers) at Cowboys: Since Week 2, in his seven games without No. 2 TE Jake Tonges (knee, IR), Kittle has been one of the best players at the position (13.3 fantasy points per game, 36-471-5 receiving, 48 targets). Last week off the bye, his production was modest (7.8 fantasy points, 4-58-0 receiving, 7 targets), but his usage was elite (83% route rate, 32% target share, 34% air yard share, 33% end-zone target share). The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and the 49ers just added veteran WR Keenan Allen. But this game has the slate's highest total (55.5), Kittle's usage should stay strong if WRs Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) remain out, and throughout his career he has been better as a favorite (11.9 fantasy points per game vs. 9.2 otherwise). Plus, the Cowboys could be without LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) on top of SS P.J. Locke (concussion).

Sam LaPorta (Lions) vs. Patriots (in Munich): LaPorta has struggled since the Week 6 bye (4.2 fantasy points per game, 8-83-0 receiving, 12 targets), and the Patriots are No. 4 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-3.0). That's not ideal. But LaPorta's usage over the past three weeks has been solid (84% route rate), and in Weeks 1-5 he was a stud (12.6 fantasy points per game, 27-316-3 receiving, 37 targets, 85 Utilization Score). At some point, a bounceback will occur.

Week 10 Injury Upgrades: Brevyn Spann-Ford vs. 49ers & Greg Dulcich at Colts

Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.

Brevyn Spann-Ford (Cowboys) vs. 49ers: With TE Jake Ferguson (knee) hobbled in Weeks 7-8, Spann-Ford saw a bump in work (53% route rate, 13% target share). Now Ferguson is out and TE Luke Schoonmaker (groin) is uncertain, so Spann-Ford is in line to start … and WRs George Pickens (hamstring), Jonathan Mingo (ankle) and KaVontae Turpin (ribs) are also uncertain. His production has been minimal this season (2.3 fantasy points per game, 15-130-0 receiving, 21 targets), and the Cowboys are +4 dogs, but they at least have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors), and this game has the slate's highest total (55.5).

Greg Dulcich (Dolphins) at Colts: The Dolphins are +3.5 road dogs with backup QB Kyle McCord in line to start in place of injured Malik Willis (quad, IR), and the Colts have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). But in three games since the Week 6 bye, Dulcich has been respectable in production (6.6 fantasy points per game, 11-143-0 receiving, 15 targets) and usage (72% route rate, 21% target share). Throughout his career, he has been better as an underdog (5.6 fantasy points per game vs. 4.5 otherwise). Plus, the Colts have had the No. 29 HFA over the past 16 games (-5.85, per NFElo), and they could be without three defensive starters in LBs Jaylon Carlies (neck) and Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee) and SS A.J. Haulcy (ankle).

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.