Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 3

• Spread: Jaguars -2.5
• O/U: 46.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  JAX 25, NE 21

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview

At just 15 points scored and more than two turnovers a game, preseason Patriots backers find themselves asking just what happened. It’s said, “Once is a mistake, twice is a decision, and three times is their character. If that’s the case, we could soon find ourselves coming to grips with an unfortunate reality — it’s possible, try as I might to deny it, that the Pats stink. Killed me to even type that.

After watching Drake Maye tear up the league to the cries of haters screeching about a soft schedule all of 2025, nothing would’ve made me happier than a blistering start from the MVP runner-up. Alas, it’s been anything but — impossible as it seems, Maye is currently fantasy football’s QB32 in points/game (8.9). Insert sad trombone sound effect here.

Nevertheless, the Pats sit at .500, and depending on how much credit you want to give the Seahawks defense (a lot?) should steer your opinion on New England’s course. Still far from perfect, at least the Pats’ Week 2 performance versus a decent Steeler defense returned the offense’s macros back within our range of expectations: 6.2 yards/play, 4.9 yards/rush, and 9.5 yards/pass attempt will get the job done more often than not. Perhaps all hope is not lost.

Without A.J. Brown, questions arose as to whether NE could stretch the field, knowing Mack Hollins wouldn’t sustain Week 1’s output. Instead, Hollins fulfilled a more intermediate role (9.5 ADoT) while Romeo Doubs worked deeper down the field, connecting on two deep shots — a long post that went for 63 yards, as well as an ad-libbed stop-and-go to Maye’s right for 29. Volume wasn’t overwhelming, but seeing rapport build within the battery was very encouraging. Color me intrigued.

Meanwhile, the New England RB fantasy wars entered a new chapter with the return of TreVeyon Henderson. After Rhamondre dominated backfield opportunity share (74%) with Henderson on the shelf against Seattle, a first-quarter fumble in the pass game seemingly cost him some work against Pittsburgh. After turning it over on just his second opportunity from scrimmage, Henderson went on to out-touch Stevenson 16 to 7 for 76 scrimmage yards plus a score. Team Hendo rejoice!

Could we be witnessing an early flippening in the NE backfield? If the Pats’ coaching staff agrees with me on the quality of Henderson’s pass protection, the answer’s yes. Rhamondre’s always going to maintain a role while healthy, but if you want to know how I foresee this playing out down the stretch, look no further than the final three quarters of Sunday’s win.

• Start: Drake Maye (QB11), TreVeyon Henderson (RB29), Romeo Doubs (WR31)
• Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB27), Mack Hollins (WR66)
• Sleeper: Hunter Henry (TE15)

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Preview

Week 2 came and went like a broad-stroked autocorrect button, resetting the paths of several NFL teams. Unfortunately for us Jaguar bulls, that included regressing Jacksonville’s torrid start. After one half versus Denver, Trevor Lawrence had the offense humming along (5.6 yards/play, 55.2% success rate). That is, until that once-vaunted Broncos’ D finally switched it on to shut JAX down for good the entire second half (4.4 yards/play, 30.8% success rate). Hopes for Liam Coen’s squad should remain high even if the air of invisibility faded a bit.

Encouragement starts with an offensive line that’s done an exceptional job protecting the quarterback (30.4% pressure, 3 total sacks), even if we’d like to see more space created for the run game (0.50 yards before contact per rush). Providing time has led to sustained accuracy for Lawrence (67.3% completion, 7.7% off-target), and most importantly, target depth — his 10.3 air yards/target leads all starters. Great news.

On the personnel side, it’s worth noting Jacksonville only deploys +3-WR sets roughly half the time, which is actually limiting Brian Thomas Jr.'s route share. For reference, he’s only played two total snaps in 12-personnel, so we’ll need some degree of efficiency, though the advanced metrics do remain very strong (29.7% target/route, 2.16 yards/route). Hearing some people call him a drop — I’d take the opposite position.

So that leaves Jakobi Meyers as the one soaking up those available routes, except for the first time in his career, he isn’t earning targets. In fact, his 3 targets (6.1% target/route) are easily the lowest among any WR with +40 routes run on the season. All this is to say, buy high on Parker Washington, the one true alpha, whatever the cost.  

The jury’s still out on the RB room, and I’ll be the first to admit my Bhayshul Tuten picks are making me a little nervous. However, as long as he’s commanding 60% of the backfield opportunities in a Liam Coen offense, I’m starting him without hesitation. He also looks to be running really strong and not quitting on carries — something I know to be very highly valued by the HC.

• Start: Trevor Lawrence (QB8), Bhayshul Tuten (RB24), Parker Washington (WR10)
• Sit: Chris Rodriguez (RB52), Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange (TE23)
• Sleeper: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR47)

Next Week’s Bold Headline, Today

• Watching my two AFC Championship picks duke it out felt like having to split the baby, but the better team won. Jacksonville’s built with the balance to attack every blade of grass, and once they scored, New England proved incapable of throwing deep when the defense knew what was coming.