Man vs. Zone Matchups for WR/TEs in Week 2: Dalton Kincaid, Deebo Samuel & More

Man vs. Zone Matchups for WR/TEs in Week 2: Dalton Kincaid, Deebo Samuel & More

Adam Pfeifer identifies wide receivers and tight ends set to excel against Week 2 coverage schemes, including Dalton Kincaid and Deebo Samuel.

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Coverage schemes can often dictate what offenses and pass-catchers are able to do on a weekly basis. Being able to identify who excels against man or zone coverage can give you an edge in any fantasy football format, whether season-long, dynasty, DFS, etc.

Let’s take a look at a few players who project fairly well ahead of Week 2’s action.

Week 1 Man vs. Zone Matchups for WR/TEs

Dalton Kincaid vs. Detroit Lions

If you paired Dalton Kincaid with a tight end in the later rounds of your draft, congrats.

You likely grabbed yourself a top-seven fantasy tight end the rest of the way.

Kincaid’s Week 1 usage was extremely encouraging, as the talented tight end ran about 70% of the routes on Sunday, well above his 51% route rate from a season ago. He logged 74% of the offensive snaps, while seeing a boost in playing time when the Bills deployed 12 personnel. 

Kincaid was even on the field more when the Bills ran the ball out of heavy sets, which sets him up for more future play-action targets out of those looks. More playing time is all we need from Kincaid, whose advanced metrics were as good as anyone last year:

  • T-1st in TPRR (24%)
  • 1st in YPRR (2.8)
  • 1st in 1st downs per route run (0.14)
  • 1st in yards per target (11.7)

Kincaid caught five balls for 130 yards on Sunday and is in a great spot to keep it going this Thursday. The Lions remain a man-heavy defense, deploying it 34% of the time in Week 1, one of the highest rates in football. And they continue to do so without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, who remain on injured reserve. 

We just saw both New Orleans tight ends get there against Detroit, as Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant combined for seven catches, 87 yards and two touchdowns. And if you look back at the games Detroit has been without both Branch and Joseph since the end of last year, tight ends have found plenty of success.

Kincaid just impressed vs. man coverage against Houston’s stout secondary, even hauling in a contested catch over Derek Stingley. He should thrive against Detroit’s depleted pass defense.

Christian Watson @ New York Jets

I’m trying not to completely overreact. But…

Christian Watson might be the greatest receiver of all time.

Watson’s Week 1 was obviously exciting, especially considering how much more Green Bay will rely on the passing attack this season. And while I’m not expecting 150 yards and two touchdowns again, I do think this is a spot for Watson to keep producing.

With Aaron Glenn, the Jets unsurprisingly deployed man coverage 32% of the time in Week 1, a top-four rate in the league. This could bode well for Watson, who averaged 2.52 fantasy points per target against man coverage last year, while his TPRR hovered around 25%. 

Watson can win vs. man coverage, but Matt LaFleur is making it easier for him so far this season. He’s moving him around the formation more, as well as putting him in motion. Watson ran six routes with motion at the snap on Sunday, up from his two per game from last year. His average route depth was also lower, signaling much more fantasy-friendly usage.

More movement, free releases and in-breaking routes make Watson a mid-range WR2 with obvious matchup-deciding upside. Wheels up.

Deebo Samuel vs. Miami Dolphins

For years, it was pretty simple. Play Deebo against zone-heavy defenses and Brandon Aiyuk against man-centric teams. Of course, Samuel is older and now Mike Evans is San Francisco’s WR1, but I do think Samuel still projects well against zone-based defenses.

For starters, we just saw an example last week when Samuel caught 6 of 7 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown against a Rams defense that deployed zone 78% of the time. Samuel also only ran 53% of the routes as rookie De’Zhaun Stribling was in and out of the game before ultimately being ruled out. Deebo matched Evans’ 21% target share, as Kyle Shanahan wasted no time scheming him touches. He ran four WR screen routes, the most among all wideouts, as well as a flare route and four crossers.

With new head coach Jeff Hafley calling defensive plays, the Dolphins deployed two-high looks at one of the highest rates in the league this past week. That’ll leave plenty of space for Samuel to soak up underneath targets and make plays after the catch. Samuel is a strong waiver wire add following Stribling’s ankle injury and a very viable PPR FLEX play for Week 2.

Emeka Egbuka vs. Cleveland Browns

Jim Schwartz may be gone, but that didn’t stop Cleveland from continuing their heavy use of man coverage and single-high looks.

In Week 1, the Browns deployed man coverage a league-high 38% of the time, while running the most Cover-1 snaps. It clearly had no effect on Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing attack, and while Cleveland does have good corners (led, of course, by Denzel Ward), the way Egbuka was utilized on Sunday should help overcome that.

Zac Robinson moved Egbuka all over the formation, leading all wideouts in routes run with motion at the snap (11), including Tampa Bay’s very first play of scrimmage. Between that and a 21.9% crossing route rate (up from his 13.6% as a rookie), it’ll be difficult for teams to have their best coverage player simply follow Egbuka over the course of an entire game. 

Oh, and when facing Cover-1 last season, Egbuka saw a healthy 26% target share, while seeing a target on 33% of his routes against man coverage this past weekend.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Dalton Kincaid
    DaltonKincaid
    TEBUFBUF
    PPG
    15.5
    Proj
    8.3
  2. Christian Watson
    ChristianWatson
    WRGBGB
    PPG
    29.7
    Proj
    11.6
  3. Deebo Samuel
    DeeboSamuel
    WRFAFA
    PPG
    15.0
    Proj
    8.5
  4. Emeka Egbuka
    EmekaEgbukaQ
    WRTBTB
    PPG
    8.8
    Proj
    9.1

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