Matthew Berry's 10 Facts For Week 1 Of The 2026 Fantasy Football Season

We made it, baby. Both of us. 

It’s been quite the offseason for me, and I’m not done yet. For one, I’ll be doing a morning show this Sunday. Look, it's the first time I’ve been on my own, so I’m building this thing as I go, so please bear with me. I think for this Sunday, it’ll just be me answering questions live on YouTube, potentially with a fellow Fantasy Lifer if we can get the logistics figured out. It’ll be at Noon ET on the Matthew Berry YouTube channel, and eventually, it’ll be longer and be in more places, including Fantasy Life’s FAST Channel on Amazon Fire TV (check out our FAST channel on Amazon Fire TV if you haven’t already!), but for Week 1, it’ll just be me and you on my YouTube channel where I’ll be answering questions. Hope you can make it. 

And there should be a fun announcement next week on something I’ve been working on. So I’m excited to share that with you guys. 

But as we head into the first week of the NFL season, I want to quote the great Douglas Adams from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy:

DON’T PANIC.

Looking at you, Drake Maye managers. Have A.J. Brown as your WR1 this season? Pay attention. And whatever happens tonight in Australia, and all of Week 1, good or bad, you need to remember the most important words for Week 1:

DON’T PANIC. 

Remember everything that happened last year in Week 1, 2025?

*Justin Fields scored 29.5 points and finished as the QB2. Fields also scored 25+ points in two of his next three games, but that was quickly followed by consecutive starts with under 50 passing yards. Ultimately, Fields ended up making only nine starts before getting benched in Week 11. 

*Matthew Stafford threw only 1 TD pass and scored 13.6 points, finishing as the QB19. Stafford would go on to have only one more game the entire season with fewer than 2 TD passes. His 45 TD passes over the next 16 games were 12 more than any other QB, and he led the position with 21.1 PPG.

*Dak Prescott scored 7.8 points and finished as the QB28. From Weeks 2-17, Prescott averaged 20.4 PPG and was the QB4. His nine 20-point games during that stretch were tied for the most at the position.

*Cam Skattebo had 9 total yards on 4 touches. Over his next six games before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 8, Skattebo would average 19.5 touches and 96 scrimmage yards—ranking as the RB6 in PPG over that stretch.

*Chuba Hubbard scored 17.9 points and finished as the RB8. Hubbard would score double-digit fantasy points only two more times all season. Meanwhile, his backup Rico Dowdle would go on to average 13.3 PPG, including 3 weeks where he scored over 28 fantasy points.

*Dylan Sampson caught 8 passes and finished as a top-10 RB. He instantly became a top waiver add, only to see Quinshon Judkins return in Week 2. Over the next 12 games that Sampson played with Judkins active, Sampson averaged 4.3 touches and was returned to waiver wires as quickly as he was snatched up.

*Keon Coleman had 8 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR2. Over the remainder of the season, Coleman averaged 24 receiving yards per game and reached double-digit fantasy points only twice. 

*Hollywood Brown saw a ridiculous 42% target share and caught 10 passes, finishing as the WR9. Over his next 15 games, Brown averaged a 12% target share and had only two more games with over 50 receiving yards.

*Ja'Marr Chase scored 4.6 fantasy points and finished as the WR73. From Week 2 on, Chase led the NFL in receptions and averaged 20.6 PPG.

*Marvin Harrison Jr. had 5 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR12. It ended up being Harrison’s third-best fantasy game of the season, and he would reach 70 receiving yards only two more times over his next 11 games.

I could do this all day. The point is, Week 1 performances are not always indicative of what is to come. I believe you need four games to get a true sense of what you have on your team. So enjoy games that actually count; try a Guillotine League, as we have public leagues drafting all week (and every week of the NFL season) and most importantly, DON’T PANIC. 

An easy way to not panic, by the way, is a FantasyLife+ subscription, where our different tools—fully customizable to fit your leagues—will help you with whatever drafts you have left, but more importantly, will help with key in-season decisions—start/sit, waivers, trades, DFS, bets, pick ‘ems, prediction markets … whatever you play, we have the projections and tools to help you win, including our flagship FantasyHQ tool, which lets you see every league across every platform in one spot. You gotta check it out. You can use promo code BERRY for 10% off.

Now moving on to the column. This is a column concept I debuted last year, a weekly spin on my annual pre-season “100 Facts” column. Same premise—these are 100% verified, can’t be argued with, fully vetted, absolutely true facts about Week 1 matchups … that only tell part of the story. What you do with them is up to you. 

But these are 10 Facts You Need To Know Before Week 1.

10 Facts To Know Before Week 1

1. Last season, Justin Herbert’s fantasy points per pass attempt were 52% higher when Joe Alt was on the field.
   1. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals ranked 27th in pressure rate.
   2. In their preseason rankings, PFF had the Cardinals' defensive line ranked 31st.
   3. And their secondary was ranked 26th.
   4. Joe Alt is healthy and ready to go for Sunday.
       
2. Since the start of 2022, when playing at home, Jared Goff is averaging 20.6 PPG.
   1. In those games, Goff averages 279 passing yards and 2.4 TD passes.
   2. In Week 1, the Lions play the Saints at home.
   3. And have the second-highest implied team total.
       
3. Last season, Tyler Shough scored at least 17 fantasy points in 7 of his 9 starts.
   1. Once he took over as the starter, Shough was a top-12 QB in PPG.
   2. On the Week 1 slate, the Saints/Lions matchup has the second-highest over/under.
   3. Shough is still available on the waiver wire in 60% of Yahoo leagues and in 53% of ESPN leagues.
       
4. More Saints. In games Chris Olave played with Tyler Shough last season, Olave averaged a 29% target share.
   1. He scored at least 14.7 PPR fantasy points in 75% of those games.
   2. Both Lions starting safeties (Brian Branch & Kerby Joseph) are beginning the season on IR.
   3. Please see Fact 3B.
       
5. Last season, in games in which Parker Washington ran at least 70% of the routes, he averaged a 24% target share.
   1. For his career, when he sees a target share of at least 15%, Washington is averaging 16.4 PPG.
   2. The Jaguars play the Browns in Week 1, and Cleveland’s top CB Denzel Ward will primarily be matched up against Brian Thomas Jr.
       
6. Last season, in the 9 games Marvin Harrison Jr. played at least 50% of snaps, Michael Wilson averaged just 5.5 PPG.
   1. When Harrison was on the field, Wilson had just a 13% target share.
   2. When Harrison was OFF the field, that number jumped to 28%.
   3. Harrison is expected to play Sunday.
       
7. Since joining the Philadelphia Eagles, Saquon Barkley has played against Washington four times (including playoffs). In those games, he’s averaging 136.5 rushing yards and 6.0 YPC.
   1. He’s scored at least 21 PPR fantasy points in all four of those games.
   2. My Commanders made a lot of changes on defense this offseason, but their front seven still projects to be a below-average unit.
       
8. In games the Browns lost last season, Quinshon Judkins averaged 10.0 PPG. In games Cleveland won, Judkins averaged 19.9 PPG.
   1. The Browns are 7.5-point underdogs to the Jaguars in Week 1
   2. The Browns also have the lowest implied team total on the slate.
       
9. Last season, over the final 12 games that Tony Pollard played with Tyjae Spears active last season (Weeks 6-18), Pollard averaged a 53% snap rate and a 37% route participation.
   1. During that stretch, Pollard ranked as the RB30 in Utilization Score.
   2. Spears ranked as RB35.
       
10. Over the past 3 seasons, Isaiah Likely ranks fourth among qualified TEs in fantasy points per target.
    1. In 8 of the 9 games Likely has played in his career where he has gotten at least 6 targets, he’s scored at least 12.5 PPR points.
    2. Malik Nabers won’t be 100% in Week 1.
    3. The Giants' current WR2 is either rookie Malachi Fields or Darnell Mooney.
    4. Just saying. Gimme all the Likely.

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