Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 1

• Spread: Raiders -3
• O/U: 40.5
• Score Prediction (from the Fantasy Life NFL Betting Model):  LV 22, MIA 20

Miami Dolphins Fantasy Preview

Two teams expected to take double-digit losses with the lowest implied total of the weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited. Yes, I know it’s the Dolphins and the Raiders. You may see a couple of bottom-feeders; I see a pair of teams set up to be way more exciting than expectations. 

Miami’s already being labeled as having one of the worst rosters in history, but as a lifetime Jets fan, I assure you that’s false. For starters, De’Von Achane is a bona fide NFL superstar, averaging over 6.0 yards/touch for 18.5 PPR points/game across his career. How can you be the worst team for fantasy football with one of its best players?

That particular piece of rubber meets the road with regard to receiving, with widespread anticipation that Achane’s featured receiving role must decrease from its norms — only Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey racked up a higher percent of their team’s total target share (18.4%) in 2025. Well, riddle me this, Batman: where exactly is the ball going to go?

The departures of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill leave the entire Miami WR room with fewer than 100 NFL targets earned last year — including roughly one-third of those by Jalen Tolbert, who’s currently buried on the depth chart.

Regardless of your opinions on Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, there’s an inherent level of certainty in rookie debuts. Again, I beg the question … where is the ball going? Not getting Achane +5 targets/game would be instant grounds for coaching malpractice.

Speaking of the rookie duo, new HC Jeff Hafley said this: "We believe those guys deserve to start, and we're gonna start them" ... also adding that Chris Bell won't be on a pitch count after returning from a knee injury. Home leaguers may want to scoop him up pre-flop, knowing he could headline all of next week’s waiver articles.

The other half of the Dolphin conundrum lies with Malik Willis, who, for the life of me, I simply can’t figure out why the fantasy community hates so much. After chasing Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson up into the top 75, as a collective we’ve decided Willis, a far superior passer to either of them, belonged outside the top-125 — in other words, an afterthought in standard formats. 

Has it been so long we’ve forgotten the importance of a Konami code QB? I sure hope not … 

• Start: De’Von Achane (RB7), Malik Willis (QB21)
• Sit: Malik Washington (WR69)
• Sleeper: Greg Dulcich (TE26), Chris Bell (WR80)

Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview

In the words of Jim Breuer in Half Baked, “I’m not going to do what everyone thinks I’m going to do … and flip out, man.” Frustration doesn’t even begin to describe the sour belches and pure disgust I’m feeling toward Klint Kubiak and the Raiders’ front office right now. It’s not as if stomaching the loss of fantasy’s TE1 Brock Bowers was bad enough; Vegas’ HC lied right to our face about it.

During Wednesday afternoon’s presser, when asked if Maxx Crosby and Bowers would play, Kubiak’s quote said, “Yeah, we’re expecting to have all our guys ready for Sunday.” This occurred after Bowers’ knee procedure, which he obviously knew about. And for as bad as the lying is, taking money to promote sportsbooks while hiding critical information seems particularly devious. Anyway …

The surprise absence of non-quarterbacks usually fails to meaningfully move the betting needle, so it’s worth noting the spread immediately dropped a half-point when news hit the wire. Lucky for Las Vegas, there’s about as close to an in-house replacement as possible in Michael Mayer (who you should stop what you’re doing to add immediately).

Mayer’s a former early second-rounder with an impressive resume whenever filling in as the starter. In four games last year without Bowers in 2025, Mayer posted elite advanced metrics (26.1% target/route, 2.13 yards/route) including two separate top-5 positional finishes. Mix in a less-than-stellar wide receiver room, and there’s an outside chance he’s the Raiders’ target leader on Sunday. Giddy up.

Aside from tight end, where the Raiders focus their aerial attack is anyone’s guess. My fantasy bags are already packed to the brim with Tre Tucker exposure. The Thought being: Klint Kubiak’s always run a ton of play-action, using power running backs to suck in the defense far enough to get over the top of them. 

Tucker’s an every-down player getting drafted near backups with downfield skills and lots of camp buzz (which we cannot at all say for free agent WR Jalen Nailor). Don’t forget that for all boring narratives, Tucker possesses some ceiling — he finished as Week 3’s overall WR2 on the back of a monster game versus WAS (8-145-3).

As high as I let myself get on Las Vegas this summer, I’m pumping the brakes on any immediate determinations. Our once truly consolidated two-man offense suffered splinters to each main trunk, leaving managers with shrugged shoulders. Assume most gamers will start Ashton Jeanty if he gets the nod, though I have to admit to awarding more of a timeshare with Mike Washington than our FL projections — it’s at a 70%/30% split while I’m much closer to 50%/50% ... for now.

Yet even with all the warts, the Raiders still remain favorites to win. Why? This Dolphins defense, as constituted, could be horrendous (another boost for Malik Willis, in my opinion). Miami finished bottom-5 in the important pass-defense metrics like opposing passer rating (105.3), completion rate (72%), and yards allowed/pass attempt (7.6).

FL Game Model’s got two stars to the over — add a third for me.

• Start: Ashton Jeanty (RB14), Michael Mayer (TE15), Tre Tucker (WR51)
• Sit: Jalen Nailor (WR60)
• Sleeper: Mike Washington (RB49)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• Just one game in and talking heads are asking if the Dolphins might be good … well, on offense at least. Malik Willis, De’Von Achane, and Chris Bell are ballers. Don’t act so surprised …
• Las Vegas looks disjointed on offense despite scoring points against a leaky Miami secondary, while the chants of FER-NAN-DO get louder by the hour.