New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 4

• Spread: Saints -3.5
• Total: 45.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): NO 24, ATL 21

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview

Initially ready to grant Atlanta’s QB Michael Penix grace for a midseason return and debut under center, it turns out there’s no need for all that. Talk about a tale of two games. In the first quarter, the Falcons’ former first-round shot caller went 2 of 7 passes for all of 22 yards plus a pick. Uh-oh. Then, like Hawk in Over The Top, he simply turned the switch on. Penix looked like an entirely different player the rest of the way, going 16 of 18 for 234 yards and a TD in the final 45 minutes of play.

Hard to believe after a performance like that, Penix still carries a single-digit rostership rate. Unlearn what you have learned about the Cooper Rush-led Falcons — they looked fantastic. At the center of the universe shone two of its brightest stars, Bijan Robinson and Drake London. Robinson needs no mention; his receiving work alone’s on par with a back-end WR3. Think about that: without a single carry as an RB, he’d still be worthy of a top-50 ADP. Crazy stuff.

London, however, is especially interesting. Few players can make a round trip in 60 minutes of gameplay from fantasy’s biggest bust to the one league winner to rule them all — but that’s what happened. London basically matched his season total in the first half, then blew it out of the water in the second. The only way to describe the advanced metrics (91 UR; 40.0% target/route, 7.76 yards/route) in that 9-194-0 explosion is cartoonish.

This will draw some eye rolls for sure, but I’d absolutely advise kicking the tires on a buy-high trade for London in case his manager still thinks Atlanta stinks. More reasonable (and certainly cheaper) would be a buy-low offer or toss-in inclusion of TE Kyle Pitts. Recipient of just two catches for 20 total yards, Pitts is even beginning to populate drop lists, but I’m telling you — that trash is another manager’s treasure. Especially getting ready to face Kellen Moore’s fast-paced Saints, everyone gets a nice boost in projections.

• Start: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Drake London
• Sit: Jahan Dotson
• Sleeper: Kyle Pitts

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview

In the name of full transparency, as a lifetime Jets fan, I have to admit to developing feelings for the Saints. An early supporter of Tyler Shough in Kellen Moore’s system (I have the receipts), when they came all the way back to beat the Ravens in their own building, I stood just about ready to buy myself Super Bowl tickets. Now I sit here, a full week in utter disbelief that my Saints lost to Kirk Cousins and the Raiders. How did that happen?!? Anyway, I wanted to put that out there so everyone’s aware of some of my biases.

Emotions aside, Shough’s about as close to inevitable as a second-year QB can be. Already fantasy’s overall QB3, I can't help but wonder how much better this entire team could be if they were actually balanced at all. So yea, we’re obviously starting Tyler Shough, the NFL’s target leader Chris Olave (36), and the overall TE3 Juwan Johnson no matter what — no 4D chess here.

Depending on your league, we could even extend that invitation to Devaughn Vele as an every-week flex player, considering he’s leading the league in routes run. Yet somehow, despite this high-velocity aerial attack, New Orleans ranks below average in yards/play (5.2). So frustrating — and therein lies the rub I need to let sink into my thick head. The run game’s atrocious.

As if it weren’t bad enough, the Saints paid Travis Etienne only to play him behind Kendre Miller and then Alvin Kamara; now he’s on the IR. Ugh. Really thought the O-line might take a step forward this season, but nothing seems to be working on the ground for NO — the Saints’ 3.8 yards/attempt, 2.35 yards after contact/rush, and 5.0% explosive rush rate all grade out near the bottom of the board. Any hope for a turnaround feels like wishcasting.

Now, New Orleans insists an aging Kamara can shoulder the load for a team with postseason aspirations. How? He’s averaging 2.8 yards/attempt with nearly a quarter of all carries going for zero or negative yards! Color me skeptical, to say the least, while I go add Miller wherever possible. First the Jets, now the Saints. Why do the teams I love not love me back?

• Start: Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, Juwan Johnson
• Sit: Alvin Kamara
• Sleeper: Kendre Miller

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Much as it pains me to say it, Atlanta’s balance on both sides of the ball, as well as within phases, shines through on Monday Night. Falcons win and suddenly look like the best team in the NFC South.