Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 1

Where’s the fast-forward button on this thing? Kidding, kidding. You know deep down I cannot wait for meaningful NFL action, even if it means sitting through Tua Tagovailoa’s next best attempt at portraying a professional quarterback. Barely able to win an uncontested QB battle down in the dirty-dirty, rest assured we’ll see Michael Penix calling shots under center the instant his body’s up for it. 

In the meantime, it’s Tua time. Yay! Whether constantly bordering on rushed play with the league’s fifth-fastest throw time (2.59 sec), or displaying carelessness with the ball (second-most INTs; 15), prepare yourself for some of the least aesthetically pleasing QB play in the game today. Hey, at least it’s NFL football. Things could be worse.

Pittsburgh’s healthy on defense, and as constituted, should present a major challenge for these potentially rudderless Falcons. Admittedly exploitable via the deep pass, the Steelers’ willingness to get aggressive with blitz calls and force turnovers should serve them well in this tradeoff — Tua’s coming off a bottom-5 season in both air yards/attempt (6.8) and deep throw rate (8.7%). 

Do you have any confidence Tua can challenge the secondary +30 yards downfield? I sure don’t.

Luckily for Tagovailoa and Falcons’ fantasy drafters at large, PPR formats disproportionately award a point for every catch. Whew. Pittsburgh plays lots of mixed 4-DB concepts with press-man on the outside — a play-call style which lends itself to allowing receptions underneath with an extra focus on tackling, due to having one fewer smaller defender on the field. We saw exactly this manifest last season with PIT’s bottom-5 rank in WR completions/game allowed (23.3), particularly against the slot (6.9 receptions/game, 87.8 yards/game, 1.8 TD/game). A glimmer of fantasy hope, perhaps …

Good news for Atlanta’s three-headed monster of Bijan Robinson (FL’s third-highest projected player), Drake London, and even Kyle Pitts — provided the offense is as consolidated as it seems on the surface. For all the Tua hate out there (of which I’m a major contributor), let’s give credit where it’s due; he’ll absolutely funnel the ball to the very best players on the field. And he gets it out of there in a hurry …

Bijan’s going to project for a million targets in this setup, given Tagovailoa fired off the fourth-most RB targets (97) on the 22nd-most attempts. With more than +28% of all dropbacks going to the backfield, +25% going to the slot, and another +20% to tight ends, we can all get ready for a low-aDOT bonanza of ugly football. But hey, sometimes you get in where you fit in.

• Start: Bijan Robinson (RB2), Drake London (WR10), Kyle Pitts (TE6)
• Sit: Tua Tagovailoa (QB31), Jahan Dotson (WR89)

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview

Pittsburgh underwent massive offseason changes at the switches by bringing in Mike McCarthy, and I’ll admit it’s looking bullish through a fantasy lens, directionally. However, as long as your quarterback’s age starts with a four, I’m struggling to see how all these drafted players get home together. The term slow as molasses comes to mind.

The Steelers brought in veteran WR Michael Pittman to presumptively work underneath/intermediate routes alongside prototypical X-type DK Metcalf. They also acquired RB Rico Dowdle to soak up some baseline work between the tackles and around the goal-line. And therein lies the rub … each piece should carry standalone value in fantasy, but I honestly fear the sum will equal less than its parts. Who do we start and when?

Pittsburgh’s offense moves about as fast as Aaron Rodgers in a footrace, which puts an incredible burden on productive efficiency. I’d love to tout Jaylen Warren on talent alone, if not for Rico Dowdle. Same goes for Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf. 

Both WRs could get home against Atlanta as time-tested zone-beaters, but I’m with the FL projections on this one — decent volume without proper efficiency squashes any chance to get over a dozen fantasy points. 

And none of that mentions the presence of two very capable pass-catching tight ends in Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington, or second-round rookie WR Germie Bernard for that matter. The plot thickens …

Point being, as a Steeler backer, this is your new reality, especially when the black and yellow is listed as a favorite. Listen, start the guys you drafted, but don’t say I didn’t warn you when you’re pulling your hair out and shopping for viable replacements in two weeks.

• Start: Jaylen Warren (RB27), DK Metcalf (WR29), Michael Pittman (WR36)
• Sit: Aaron Rodgers (QB27), Rico Dowdle (RB29), Pat Freiermuth (TE25)
• Sleeper: Darnell Washington (TE34)

Next Week’s Bold Headlines, Today

• Hear ye! Hear ye! Bijan Robinson is ridiculously good at American football. In spite of horrendous QB play, the second overall pick looks like he could challenge the RB receptions record if this continues.
• Aaron Rodgers’ refusal to take a single hit stunts the entire Steelers offense, with a very visible ceiling at this pace.