Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 4

Nothing says “get the leather helmets, this is old-school fall football” like Browns versus Steelers in Cleveland, with a sub-39-point total on the board. Two teams are trying to convince the world their winning records are real, and regardless of your thoughts, one’s leaving in a great spot to make a run at the second season.

Browns vs. Steelers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 4

• Spread: PIT -2.5
• Total: 38.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): PIT 21, CLE 18

Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Preview For Week 4

I’m not crying over the Bengals’ loss to the Steelers, you are. Fine, maybe I am too. And not to say old man Aaron Rodgers still can’t sling a pretty deep ball (oh boy, can he), but without several game-changing errors, we’re telling a completely different story heading into Week 4.

Pass Game

You’d think a quarterback with the sixth-highest number of dropbacks/game (40.7) would spur more fantasy interest, but this black-and-yellow passing game’s still an avoid for me. Rodgers went for (292-3-1) on Sunday, despite completing just 56% of passes — without a single pass-catcher earning more than six targets or reeling in a fourth grab. No thanks.

DK Metcalf finally found the end zone, and still runs every possible route — but that doesn’t quite paper over the rotten advanced metrics for his draft-day cost (19.2% target/route, 0.78 yards/route). The return of Michael Pittman hurts everyone as well, especially if Mike McCarthy’s going to keep dialing up specialized high-value plays for Ben Skowronek and Darnell Washington that help absolutely no one.

Speaking of the latter, no matter how much fun watching the behemoth known as Darnell Washington swatting defenders running downfield is, that same action will cannibalize the TE1-type volume going Pat Freiermuth's way. The Muth’s still startable for now, but I’d start looking for replacements due to target sharing — namely this new chemistry building with Roman Wilson. Yes, the former third-round post-hype sleeper out of Michigan took over the every-down role in 11-personnel, earning six targets/game, responsible for the NFL’s 11th-most unrealized air yards. Timing starts in fantasy will be tough, but there’s potentially contingency/dynasty value here.

Run Game

Pittsburgh shelved Rico Dowdle with a balky toe, which opened up the floodgates for Jaylen Warren. Finally allowed to shine as a solo act, Warren soaked up 90% of backfield opportunities and 100% of the production (20 touches, 176 scrimmage yards). Dowdle’s status remains up in the air after back-to-back DNPs, and chances he could play are waning to avoid being too risky given the short turnaround.

Warren’s a start regardless, as well as a decent buy-high asset for the non-zero chance of leaving Dowdle in his fantasy dust. Not to mention it’s an ugly divisional game against a Browns’ D bottom-5 in yards after contact/carry (3.35) and explosive rush rate (10.0%). Looks like the long-awaited Warren breakout could finally be upon us.

• Start: Jaylen Warren (RB11), DK Metcalf (WR30)
• Sit: Aaron Rodgers (QB29), Michael Pittman (WR60)
• Sleeper: Pat Freirmuth (TE21), Roman Wilson (WR75)

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview For Week 4

To all the Browns backers out there, especially those big Deshaun Watson fans (do those exist?), I’m sorry. I was definitely wrong, not only about Cleveland’s viability as a collective but Watson’s athletic ability coming off a second Achilles injury. Difficult to not come away at least somewhat impressed with his ability to escape and turn the usual sack into a sensational first down — one run in the first quarter particularly reminded me of his glory days in Houston.

Pass Game

In spite of all my roses thrown at Watson’s feet already, there’s still plenty to be concerned about before making moves to start him in fantasy. For starters, the off-target rate's still through the roof (14.6%), while an extremely shallow air yards/attempt (6.0) spurns the league’s worst rate of throws beyond the marker (28.6%). Are things better than expected? Yes. But are they good? No.

Usually, low-aDOT attacks with a running quarterback calling shots throw a wet blanket on most, if not all, associated fantasy assets. However, there’s an attention-worthy amount of consolidation going on here, especially if your team’s been bitten by the injury bug. Watson attempted 30 passes Sunday, targeting just three total WR/TEs: KC Concepcion (9), Harold Fannin (9), and Denzel Boston (4). Start the first two in PPR with some degree of confidence, with Boston’s deep-threat role (5 targets/game, 80 air yards/game) making him a boom-or-bust play for fantasy.

Run Game

I wish I could share the same optimism for the Browns’ backfield … but can’t. Just when we thought Quinshon Judkins started on his way to a truly featured role, earning more pass game work by catching five balls in Week 2 — we get the rug pulled out from under us. Sad trombone sounds all around.

Having to rely purely on rushing points behind an objectively bad O-line, responsible for what’s easily a bottom-5 ground attack (-0.31 EPA/rush, 3.5 yards/attempt, 40.0% success, 4.0% explosive rush rate) will keep Judkins relegated to the RB3 discussion. Startable, but capped as long as Raheim Sanders suits up.

• Start: Quinshon Judkins (RB22), KC Concepcion (WR46), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE9)
• Sit: Deshaun Watson (QB25)
• Sleeper: Denzel Boston (WR43)

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Forced to choose between the two two-win teams I believe in the least wasn’t easy. Pittsburgh’s front seven creates enough pressure to sufficiently disrupt the inaccurate Watson, and the Browns’ man-heavy approach struggles to defend Rodgers’ play-action ball fakes in a narrow loss.