San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9
Fantasy

San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9

John Laghezza breaks down the Week 9 game between the 49ers and the Raiders for fantasy football.

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Life comes at you fast as Raiders fans, following up a miracle three-win start with four straight losses … something San Fran just got their first bitter taste of. Vegas’ front office insists it’s Kirk Cousins’ job barring postseason elimination, though I question that statement’s veracity if the Niners succeed in a double-digit cover Sunday.

49ers vs. Raiders Matchup Breakdown For Week 9 Fantasy Football

*Fantasy Football Rankings listed are Fantasy Life's half-PPR consensus ranks at the time of writing.

OAK_raiders-logo.svgLas Vegas Raiders Fantasy Preview For Week 9

For the extreme peaks and valleys through the AFC standings, it’s a one-way directional ride for fantasy gamers when it comes to the Raiders. Sure, they’re losing games, but the offense continues to do its part opposite a flailing defense. The result? A fantasy football dreamscape, where Vegas games carry the highest average total in the NFL since Week 3 (61.8). I alluded to a Cousins benching in the intro, though in all honesty it’s projecting my sad best ball aspirations on all of you. Kirko Chainz hung five top-10 finishes in his last six games, including two in the top-5 on solid underpinning stats (0.19 EPA/dropback, 101.4 passer rating, 7.5 yards/attempt, 44.5% throws to sticks, 37.5% first-down rate, 6.7% TD). In other words, literally none of the blame rests at the feet of their veteran QB.

Klint Kubiak’s done us another favor via extreme consolidation, funneling an incredible 74.4% of all WR/TE targets through Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, or Michael Mayer since the big dog’s Week 3 return. Speaking of Bowers, the former 2× John Mackey Award winners dropped four separate top-3 TE finishes in a six-week span, and the versatility of use opens an interesting use case for Mayer. Generally, we’d never be talking seriously about regularly starting a backup TE, but Bowers' out-wide alignment clears room for Mayer to rank 8th in routes (224) and 4th in receptions (36) at a position predicated on volume. Tucker has provided tons of profit at ADP as well this year, worthy of another start despite the recent goose egg. Kyle Shanahan runs a ton of zone-heavy Cover-3 looks, and Tucker is Cousins’ favorite deep target (9 +20-yard targets) plus zone-beating option (2.16 yards/route, 0.74 EPA/target, 12.3% success).

As the first to admit, Mike Washington’s 25 carries on 38 snaps shocked me just one week after going (6-27-0) versus the Rams; I’m not sold we’re going back. In spite of uninspiring rushing stats (4.3 yards/carry, -0.12 EPA/attempt, 38.0% success, 20.0% negative rush rate), they’re still head and shoulders better than presumed starter Ashton Jeanty (3.1 yards/carry, -0.28 EPA/attempt, 41.0% success, 25.9% negative rush rate). Looks to me like very defined thunder and lightning roles developed, with Washington soaking up baseline work and Jeanty manning the receiving role as they inevitably fall behind.

  • Start: Ashton Jeanty (RB16), Brock Bowers (TE1), Tre Tucker (WR28)
  • Sit: Jalen Nailor (WR71), Michael Mayer (TE20)
  • Sleeper: Kirk Cousins (QB17), Mike Washington (RB36)

SF_49ers-logo.svgSan Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview For Week 9

Many of us who wondered how the Niners kept getting away with elite offensive macros (6.4 yards/play, 55.3% success, 0.13 EPA/play) in the face of skill position players dropping like flies got our answer against the Falcons. Unfortunately, even extended rest over the bye week provided little relief — none of Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, or Deebo Samuel have practiced as of writing (though all carry questionable tags). Not sure that’ll hinder overall QB3 in points/game Brock Purdy, who’s rolling with the punches like no one else, playing some of the best ball of his career in the face of injury adversity (0.27 EPA/dropback, 110.1 passer rating, 8.3 yards/attempt, 45.5% throws to sticks, 40.3% first down rate).  

Guess it never hurts having a fantasy stalwart like McCaffrey in the backfield, still managing +20 points/game on newfound rushing efficiency (4.6 yards/carry, 0.12 EPA/attempt, 54.0% success, 9.5% explosive rush rate) to go with a league-leading 20.5% team target share at the position. CMC’s still the unquestioned backfield leader, though it’s no excuse for Kaelon Black to sport a 33% rostership rate — especially in a +51-point game total environment as a double-digit favorite. There are entirely too many pathways to Black’s success to leave him floundering on the wire this weekend.

If I could describe the way my hands are waving wildly overhead with my mouth hanging open, it’d do a better job than whatever garble’s coming your way regarding the Niners’ pass-catching room. Yes, George Kittle’s inevitable (26.1% target/route, 2.41 yards/route, 9.8 routes/first down), but assuming Evans and Samuel sit after that? It’s a veritable who’s who of … who?

Last we saw them, the cacophony of Brandin Cooks, Jordan Watkins, and Jacob Cowing posted a (7-107-0) line combined. Woof. Personally, I’d really love for Christian Kirk to finally show his face after duping us on his true status for weeks, except now he’s back on the injury report, this time questionable with a knee. Keep an eye peeled for Demarcus Robinson’s return to practice — an active role would immediately make him SF’s de facto WR1.

  • Start: Brock Purdy (QB3), Christian McCaffrey (RB2), Mike Evans (WR16), George Kittle (TE2)
  • Sit: N/A
  • Sleeper: Kaleon Black (RB47)

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