The Case Against Each Round 1 Pick In 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts: Can Puka Nacua Do It Again?
Justin Carlucci makes the case against every Round 1 pick in fantasy football drafts for the 2026 season.
There are many reasons to like every Round 1 fantasy football pick. But are there reasons to shy away from any of them? According to Underdog best ball ADP, 12 players separate themselves at the top of the board. Every one of them is elite, so let's play devil's advocate and make the case against each.
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Making A Case To Not Draft Every First-Round Pick in Fantasy Football 2026 Drafts
1 & 2. Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET & Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL)
I'm lumping these Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson together because they're essentially interchangeable, and honestly, there isn't much of a real argument against either. What's the actual case? Detroit lost David Montgomery in free agency, and Atlanta lost Tyler Allgeier—both bruising, change-of-pace backs who vultured goal-line work and a chunk of the workload.
If anything, that's a plus for the guys going 1 and 2. The only true reason to pivot off either would be flipping the board to your liking or loving your Round 2-3 turn.
3. Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN
And that's the segue — I don't think it's crazy to take Ja'Marr Chase at 1.01. It's not my favorite philosophy, but especially in PPR, it's defensible. Our fantasy football rankings have Derrick Henry at a 21.5, and Jeremiyah Love at 23.5, so if you have a read on your room and think one could fall to your turn, going Chase and coming back for a Henry or Love isn't a bad two-round start.
The case against Chase is health — not his, but Joe Burrow's. Cincinnati still has Joe Flacco, who did an admirable job filling in, but the ceiling is unmatched when Burrow is upright. Burrow played 10 games in 2023 and just eight last season. In the three of six seasons he's played 16-plus, he's thrown for over 4,400 yards and 34-plus touchdowns every single time. Chase's ceiling goes exactly as far as Burrow's health does.
4. Puka Nacua | WR | LA
Health is the theme again. It always seems like one thing or another with Puka Nacua. He did manage 16 games last year and set a career high with 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns, but 2024 was an 11-game campaign, and he was banged up for stretches of 2025. When healthy, he has THE WR1 upside, and with basically the same offense running it back, I have no other qualms.
5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an unbelievable season—as if 1,130 yards in 2024 wasn't enough, he exploded for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns on a whopping 163 targets in 2025. Ohio State just produces elite route runners. The case against him: the loss of Klint Kubiak. Last year JSN posted north of 4.1 yards per route run on the outside, but just 2.6 in the slot. Will the new scheme keep deploying him where he pays the most dividends?
6. Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF
We can keep this short: health. It's the same story every year. But when Christian McCaffrey is right, he's not just the RB1 in a fantastic scheme with a competent quarterback—he has a legitimate shot to be the No. 1 overall fantasy player. He's the single-biggest risk-reward proposition in the game we play right now.
7. Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND
Volume isn't the question—it never has been, and Jonathan Taylor has stayed healthy. The case against is the offense collectively. Daniel Jones is coming off a season-ending injury, Michael Pittman is now in Pittsburgh, and Alec Pierce's availability is uncertain. Josh Downs and Tyler Warren are somewhat unproven, and I'm still not sold on Jones being a consistently good thing at this level.
Could defenses just stack the box early? Taylor is more than capable of overcoming that, but it wouldn't help—and if your glass is half empty, a Pierce absence or a Jones regression to his uglier form is a real risk. If you want volume and a high floor, Taylor's your guy, and we know the ceiling. There's just room for a question or two.
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown has one of the highest floors in all of fantasy. He tied for second in the NFL in receiving touchdowns last season—his third straight year of double-digit scores—and commanded an absurd 172 targets. I'm truly splitting hairs here, but the only nitpick: back in 2022 the Sun God had just 6 touchdowns, so is there any slight regression risk in targets and scores? That's how thin the case against him is.
9. James Cook | RB | BUF
There have been plenty of rumblings about Buffalo mixing in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson to spell James Cook more often—plus Josh Allen vultures red-zone touchdowns. Cook has 28 touchdowns over the past two seasons and eclipsed 300 carries last year (102 more than 2024 and 172 more than 2023). If they trim his workload by 50-75 carries, the numbers will dip. Although, frankly, I'll believe that committee talk when I see it. Cook remains one of the safest floor-ceiling combos on the board.
10. CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL
I wrote about CeeDee Lamb recently, and the bull case is the offense: Dallas ranked top-5 in EPA per play and loves to throw. He offers one of the highest floors in the game. The only real case against him is the ceiling — it's capped a touch as long as George Pickens is on the field commanding targets across the formation.
11. Ashton Jeanty (RB, LV)
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Worth noting: Ashton Jeanty was getting hit in the backfield on nearly 60% of his carries early in the season—an unsustainable number that should improve with the upgraded line (All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum, plus Spencer Burford). The talent is undeniable and the spike weeks were real. But the case against is stacked boxes and the offense collectively beyond Brock Bowers, especially with a likely early-season Kirk Cousins bridge. It could be tough sledding for a stretch, and there's no time to waste in head-to-head formats.
12. Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Kyler Murray at the helm could help— he's supported alpha WR1s before—but the case against Justin Jefferson is the ambiguity: a potential system adjustment and an unsettled quarterback battle. Even amid ugly QB play last year, Jefferson posted a 28% target share and cracked 1,000 yards. Like Lamb and these other receivers, his realistic outcome is a literal WR1 finish.
The Bottom Line
Every name in this tier carries a league-winning case, and almost every argument against boils down to health or situation rather than talent. Gibbs and Bijan sit atop the board for a reason, and the receivers behind them are awesome. Good luck!
Players Mentioned in this Article
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