Three Things to Watch for Dynasty Managers Week 1: Opportunity Knocks in Kansas City

We spend all offseason carefully curating our dynasty teams and predicting where player trajectories are headed.

Unfortunately, because we’ve spent SO long waiting for the actual season to roll back around, whatever happens in Week 1 usually causes some big feelings among dynasty managers.

And, yes, we can reasonably analyze a few things from the first week of real NFL action—things that can (and should) impact our dynasty decisions. But there are also plenty of things that we should ignore. Or maybe just put a pin in for later.

That’s what I want to help suss out.

Here are three things that dynasty managers should watch for in Week 1, and what we should do with that information.

Watch for the ONE BIG Overreaction

Every single season, without fail, the fantasy community loses its collective mind about something that happens in Week 1. Last year, folks were writing eulogies for A.J. Brown. The year before that, Isaiah Likely was the breakout tight end that would help win thousands of fantasy championships.

Too much of the discourse following the first slate of games is framed as all or nothing. It’s the best thing that could happen or the worst thing. A player is either headed to the moon or to the fantasy graveyard. And I get it—human beings like certainty. So in fantasy, we want to believe that we have it all figured out after one game.

When in reality, so much of what occurs is just a little data point that nudges the needle slightly in one direction or the other.

So if everyone you know starts freaking out because, hypothetically, Trey McBride only gets two targets for 15 yards, clock it. But keep cool. And if folks anoint Malik Washington the second-coming of Tyreek Hill because he houses a catch for 75 yards after a defender trips over his own foot… maybe test the trade waters.

Take in the info! Get excited! Or be bummed! But try your best not to overreact to the outliers. 

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Watch the Chiefs WR Target and Route Share

We don’t know if all the offseason hype around Cyrus Allen will lead to a big payoff in dynasty. We’ve certainly traveled down this Kansas City road before with rookie receivers, and it hasn’t always worked out. But Week 1 could tell us whether the tales of his great rapport with Patrick Mahomes are rooted in reality.

How often is Allen on the field in two-wide receiver sets? How often is he targeted on his routes? How often is he Mahomes’ first read? Does Mahomes throw to him in key situations? He doesn’t have to end the week with a big stat line for us to see a path toward a bright future.

Be ready to send a nice little offer to the Allen manager. I know it’s silly to throw around the phrase “the next Puka Nacua,” but… the guy tied to Mahomes? With Travis Kelce fading out of the picture like he’s a McFly in Back to the Future? That’s on the table for Allen.

Likewise, be ready to pivot off of Rashee Rice and/or Xavier Worthy in the event they appear to be fighting for snaps. It’s not that three receivers CAN’T succeed in this offense, but current dynasty values see this as a two-horse race.

Watch for Signs Mike McDaniel Doesn’t Have “the Juice”

So much has been made of Mike McDaniel’s offensive creativity lifting all the boats in Los Angeles. The dynasty values of Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey and Omarion Hampton have all increased this offseason because we want to believe the wunderkind’s scheming will boost the offense. Hell, people are even back in on Quentin Johnston!

That’s a lot of weight on McDaniel’s slender shoulders.

But can the new OC’s supposed wizardry work around a disjointed offensive line? Will he come out swinging in the first couple drives with meticulously scripted plays but fall into familiar second-half doldrums like he did so many times in Miami? Will his playcalling actually favor the guys we think it will favor??

I’m not expecting the Chargers offense to fail. But I do worry that we’ve gone too far in projecting a meteoric rise for some of these players. Especially considering McDaniel had pretty limited success in his previous stint. And it’s possible we see some hints that he’s a one-trick pony. Look for any breadcrumbs that lead us away from the top-tier valuations the dynasty community has on these players.