Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Matchup Breakdown for Fantasy Football Week 5

• Spread: Commanders -3.5
• Total: 44.5
• Score Prediction (from our NFL Betting Game Model): WAS 23, NYG 22

New York Giants Fantasy Preview

In the words of the inimitable Jameis Winston himself, “I’m heating up, and I’m starting to get better, better and better. Last week I was questioning if I can even throw. This week I got people talking about the Jameis Winston experience again”. Not sure he fully understood what we mean when we say that, though I guess last Sunday’s three TDs with a pair of picks is close enough. Never a dull moment with this guy …

Only fair to grant Winston some grace for growth via repetition, especially if this game versus Arizona’s any indication. Say what you will about Jameis, but +0.32 EPA/attempt, 8.6 yards/attempt, and 58.6% to the sticks is the foundation for winning QB play. Not to mention Washington’s bottom-5 in opposing passer rating (105.1) and dead-last in passing TDs allowed (12). Don’t give up the faith just yet; we could still be on the upswing.

Cam Skattebo’s 76 touches rank 11th among all RBs, yet he’s failed to crack the top-15 weekly leaderboard, or eclipse 16.5 points in any contest. It’s too strong of a workload to even consider benching, but not nearly good enough of a profile to get excited about (3.5 yards/attempt, 2.78 yards after contact/carry, -0.20 EPA/rush, 38.0% success, 2.9% explosive rush rate). Not great. Even with Najee Harris increasing his touch share weekly, it’s come more at the expense of Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy. Harris could be in line for a big utilization boost in case of emergency, but he's no more than a backend stash for now.

Similar to their MetLife roommates, the Giants’ targets remain so narrowly focused on just two players, they’re impossible to sit. Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely combine for an absurd 65% of all WR/TE targets from Winston, including two-thirds of the high-value looks in the red zone. Careful writing off these Giants too soon; it’s a really soft matchup, and Big Blue’s my outright underdog win of the week.

• Start: QB Jameis Winston, RB Cam Skattebo, WR Malik Nabers, TE Isaiah Likely
• Sit: WR Malachi Fields
• Sleeper: WR Darnell Mooney

Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview

You’ll have to forgive my tempered expectations for not rolling out the burnt-red carpet for the Commanders and Jayden Daniels. Sorry, I can’t help but wonder if Daniels would even be suiting up had Marcus Mariota not gotten hurt. And it’s not like Washington was some sort of wagon through two weeks with their starting QB intact; Daniels’ 56.9% completion rate, 90.3 passer rating, or 5.1 yards/attempt hardly inspires confidence. Now, it appears as if Jayden’s rushing back from an injury he’s not only suffered from in the past, but came back from before it was healed, eventually costing him the season. Call me Missouri; Washington’s got to show me first.

Just when you thought missing Rachaad White might bring some clarity to the Commanders’ backfield, Austin Ekeler’s coming off the street to earn nearly a quarter of the backfield opportunities. Great. Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s still the reigning RB1, but at least three RBs touch the ball every game — and it was actually Kaytron Allen to soak up the lone goal-to-go carry in London. Splitting targets plus losing high-value green zone work’s the fastest way to cap a tailback’s fantasy ceiling.

Still can’t figure out where Washington possesses enough of an edge to warrant being a favorite, and that extends into pass catching. Even with all signs pointing to a Terry McLaurin return, there’s so much route and target sharing; even rolling out the starters is frustrating at times. Not a single Commander WR has posted a top-10 finish all season, with all five wideouts landing outside the top-50 in at least 50% of matchups. 

Start F1 and Stefon Diggs if you got them, but understand the raised potential for a floor game — Big Blue’s already racked up six INTs and held three of four opposing quarterbacks under 181 passing yards. Sounds like a rough day at the office on deck for the Commanders.

• Start: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Terry McLaurin
• Sit: QB Jayden Daniels, TE Chig Oknonkwo
• Sleeper: WR Antonio Williams

Next Week's Bold Headline, Today

Can’t always pick favorites. Jameis logs another solid game under center, while Jayden plays anxious, and the Giants are suddenly the most surprising four-win team in the NFL.