Fantasy Football Predictions Using Week 1 Betting Market Data: A Sneaky TE Start, RBs Set To Boom & More
Matt LaMarca breaks down how to exploit where the sharp money in the betting market is going and apply it to your fantasy football lineup decisions in Week 1.
One of my favorite parts about fantasy football is that we’re allowed to cheat off the smart kids in class. Fantasy may feel like a huge game, but it’s nothing compared to the amount of money exchanging hands at the sportsbook each week. There will be 10 figures at stake in Week 1 alone, so it’s extremely important for the sportsbooks to get their numbers correct in each contest. If they don’t, they risk getting exploited by the sharp bettors in the space.
The good news for fantasy is that we can use the betting data to make some informed decisions. When the sharp bettors have a position on a certain game, we can adjust our rankings accordingly.
That’s the purpose of this piece. Each week, I’m going to dive into some of the data available in the betting space to highlight a few spots that are being overlooked by the general fantasy public. Let’s dive right in.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Predictions Leveraging Betting Market Data
Expect Points Galore in Lions-Saints
Ok, so this one isn’t exactly a shocker. This game has the second-highest total on the Sunday main slate, trailing only the Bucs vs. the Bengals. That said, it’s possible that the 49.5-point total is still too low. There’s been some clear early sharp activity on the over, which is attracting 31% of the dollars on just 18% of the bets.
For fantasy purposes, this is a game that we should clearly be targeting. You’re obviously going to play the studs: all of the Lions’ guys, Chris Olave and Travis Etienne are slam-dunk starters. But you could also dig a little deeper. Juwan Johnson stands out as a nice Week 1 starter at tight end, with the Lions allowing the 10th-largest boost in fantasy scoring to the position last season. With Jordyn Tyson out for at least the first four games, Johnson has a chance to pick up right where he left off last season (TE10 in 0.5-PPR scoring).
Additionally, Devaughn Vele looks like a nice “break glass in case of emergency” option at WR3 or flex. He could see an 80+% snap share as the team’s WR2, and he also showed some promise with Tyler Shough down the stretch. I personally like the Saints to cover in this contest, and when you add in the big total with some sharp interest on the over, there should be plenty of fantasy production on both sides.
Omarion Hampton, Bhayshul Tuten Should Start Strong
Omarion Hampton was drafted as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 this offseason, but he has the chance to start the year on a much higher note. He gets a matchup vs. the Cardinals, who might be the worst team in football this season. The Chargers are up to 10-point favorites at this point, and that number will likely only keep growing. There’s been plenty of sharp money coming in on Los Angeles, and we have the projected spread at 11 in our NFL Game Model.
Being a big favorite is an excellent thing for a fantasy running back. NFL teams tend to run the ball at a higher frequency with the lead, and we’ve seen big favorites excel at RB over the past three seasons. RB1s have averaged 17.75 DraftKings points per game in that split, and this will be Hampton’s first career opportunity in such a spot.
In addition to Hampton, Bhayshul Tuten also fits this trend in Week 1. His role isn’t as cut-and-dry as Hampton’s, and his matchup against the Browns isn’t nearly as juicy. Still, opportunities tend to matter at RB more than just about anything else, and it’s a great game script for Tuten to get fed.
Sneaky Value With the Steelers’ Offense
The Steelers weren’t a priority target for anyone this offseason. Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren were just “meh” options at running back, while DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman were the same at receiver.
That said, the Steelers are getting some love in the betting market in Week 1. There’s been some sharp action on Pittsburgh, and we have the projected spread as 4.5 points in our NFL Game Model. We’re also showing plenty of value on the over, making Pittsburgh an interesting team to target.
It’s possible that this offense is mediocre for the second straight year with Aaron Rodgers at QB, but Mike McCarthy is a clear upgrade offensively over Mike Tomlin at head coach. Perhaps he can get the best out of this situation, and the Falcons are a great matchup to get off to a good start. I’m still not excited about using any of the Steelers’ skill guys in Week 1, but don’t be surprised if at least one of them puts together a strong performance.
Players Mentioned in this Article
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