Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections: Cam Skattebo Boom Or Bust?

It’s like Christmas morning.

Week 1 is around the corner and Fantasy Life is wasting no time. The fantasy football projections for the opening week of the NFL are now live on the site, and I thought it would be fun to take a look at some of the early lines and highlight what stands out.

Overview of Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections Overview

Quarterback Projections For Week 1

Drake Maye @ Seattle Seahawks

Projection: 17.2 fantasy points (QB15)

Drake Maye is being drafted as a consensus top-3 fantasy signal-caller, so seeing him projected as QB15 for opening week might sting a bit.

But it’s absolutely warranted.

A road matchup against Seattle’s vaunted defense doesn’t scream confidence, especially considering what Maye did (or didn’t do) against some of the elite defenses this past season. During his playoff run against the Chargers, Texans, Broncos and Seahawks last year, Maye completed just 58.3% of passes, posted a 5% passing TD rate, 14.9% sack rate and averaged 0.42 fantasy points per dropback. Over the course of the regular season, Maye ranked second in fantasy points per dropback (0.67), while sporting a 6.3% TD rate and 8.7% sack rate.

Of course, Maye should improve against top competition this season. The Patriots upgraded their receiver room with additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. And if you drafted Maye with a top-50 pick, you aren’t going to the waiver wire to replace him Week 1. But against a Seahawks defense that surrendered the fewest points per drive in the NFL a season ago (1.48), expectations should be tempered.

Tyler Shough @ Detroit Lions

Projection: 250.5 passing yards (QB8)

Tyler Shough has been my favorite Week 1 quarterback streamer for months now. I’ve been thinking about it more often than I should.

Clearly, my priorities are exactly where they need to be.

Shough showed plenty of fantasy potential once he took over the starting job last year. From Week 8 on, he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, good for QB14 among qualified passers during that stretch. In those games, Shough flashed some of the things we love from a fantasy quarterback—rushing and deep passes. During that span, 20.9% of Shough’s pass attempts were 15-plus yards down the field (13th), while 12% traveled at least 20 yards. Shough was also pretty efficient during the second half of his first NFL season, ranking:

6th in completion rate (68%)
7th in passing YPG (238.4)
10th in offensive throw EPA (56.4)

Shough was solid as a passer, but also added plenty of production with his legs. From Week 8 on, he handled 8% of the designed rush attempts (1.8 per game), as well as 20% of the inside-the-5 carries. Overall, Shough averaged 4.5 carries and about 20 rushing yards per game during the second half of the year.

A Week 1 matchup is very favorable for Shough. For starters, this has been a man-heavy scheme for years now, and that didn’t change in Kelvin Sheppard’s first year as DC. The Lions deployed man coverage over 30% of the time last year, a top-5 rate in football. I always look for quarterback rushing upside against man-centric defenses because the defenders’ backs are almost always turned when the quarterback takes off to run.

But I’m also buying the Shough passing projection, too. We should expect the Saints to have to keep pace with Detroit’s offense, and they should find success doing so. The Lions will be without both starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, making this a secondary to attack.

Running Back Projections For Week 1

Kenneth Walker vs Denver Broncos

Projection: 24.7 receiving yards (RB9)

It remains to be seen whether Kenneth Walker will fully handle the pass-catching role with Kansas City, but reports suggest he’ll be the true every-down running back for the Chiefs.

I expect him to be very busy right away.

For starters, this will be Patrick Mahomes’ first game since suffering an ACL tear, and a matchup with a tough Denver pass defense is less than ideal. Look for the Chiefs to lean on Walker and try to get Mahomes easy looks against Denver’s vulnerable linebackers in coverage. No one played more man coverage than the Broncos last year, and the Chiefs’ pass catchers struggle to create separation against man.

Don’t be surprised if Walker hauls in 4-5 passes in his debut.

Cam Skattebo vs Dallas Cowboys

Projection: 13.6 fantasy points (RB11)

With each day that passes by, the more nervous I become about Cam Skattebo, despite the enticing ceiling. It really feels like the Giants could deploy some sort of committee at running back, at least right out of the gate. And because we are talking Week 1 projections, that’s a problem.

Najee Harris recently joined the team, and was reportedly signed to be a significant contributor to the Giants offense. Meanwhile, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is still a candidate to handle passing downs/two-minute work, raising questions about Skattebo’s early-season workload. And while an opening matchup against the Cowboys may look good on paper, a closer look under the hood suggests otherwise.

Yes, the Cowboys were poor against the run overall last season. But things changed when the team acquired defensive lineman Quinnen Williams ahead of Week 11. From that point on, Dallas coughed up just 0.85 yards before contact per rush, the fourth-best mark in football. The Cowboys were also 14th in rushing success rate allowed during that stretch. A reshuffled defensive line consisting of Williams, Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary could transform into one of the better run defenses in the league.

Wide Receiver Projections For Week 1

Chris Godwin @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projection: 9.5 fantasy points (WR24)

I was pleasantly surprised with this projection. Chris Godwin currently checks in just behind teammate Emeka Egbuka (9.6) in the Week 1 half PPR projections. Perhaps there is more of a gap if we get more positive injury news from Egbuka. But regardless, Godwin being a top-24 wideout excites me. We know a return to a fully healthy slot role could help the veteran wideout post one more strong fantasy campaign.

Slot	Elsewhere
Yards Per Route Run	2.10	1.49
Targets Per Route Run	33%	21.3%
Yards Per Catch	12.1	9.9
Touchdowns	5	2

Godwin is also averaging a healthy 0.48 fantasy points per route run from the slot over his last 16 games, compared to 0.36 when lined up elsewhere. The Bengals defense might be improved this season, but they’ll still be a team we can pick on.

Last year, Cincinnati coughed up the fourth-most yards per reception (12.3), second-most YAC/reception (6.2) and fourth-most touchdowns per game (0.76) to the slot, as well as the 12th-most PPR PPG. Godwin is a strong FLEX for Week 1, and a legitimate top-24 play if Egbuka remains sidelined.

KC Concepcion @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projection: 8.1 fantasy points (WR40)

The quarterback situation in Cleveland is obviously less than ideal, but I do think this is a good spot for KC Concepcion, who projects to lead this team in targets. Jacksonville was a massive pass funnel last season, as opposing offenses passed the ball 64% of the time against the Jaguars, the highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 72.1% of the yardage surrendered by Jacksonville came through the air, also the highest rate. I don’t envision Cleveland being able to run the ball with much success against one of the top run defenses in all of football, resulting in more of a reliance on the passing game, which should be led by Concepcion.

Tight End Projections For Week 1

Tucker Kraft @ Minnesota Vikings

Projection: 8.4 fantasy points (TE6)

This one is interesting because if Tucker Kraft isn’t limited in his first game back from last year’s ACL tear, I expect him to be very busy right away. The matchup isn’t the most favorable, as the Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends last season (10.8). However, I expect an uptick in pass attempts for the Packers, at least to start the season, with plenty going to Kraft given the matchup.

We know Brian Flores is going to bring simulated pressure and blitzes. Last year no team blitzed on a higher percentage of dropbacks than the Vikings (48%). Kraft, meanwhile, sported a healthy 23.9% target share against the blitz during Weeks 1-9 last season, the fourth-highest rate among tight ends.

On paper, the matchup is scary. But if Kraft is full-go, expect plenty of looks in Week 1.